Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/17-19, likely voters, 11/10-12 in parentheses):
Jim Martin (D): 45 (46)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 51 (49)
(MoE: ±4%)
The newest R2K poll of the Georgia senate runoff shows Jim Martin falling further behind incumbent Saxby Chambliss at 51-45, but Markos points out an interesting detail: the previous week’s poll, which was 49-46, found that the respondents had voted 49-47 for Chambliss in the general election (which closely mirrored the actual 49-46 result). This sample, however, finds that the respondents voted 52-44 in the general, suggesting a more Republican-leaning batch.
The fluctuation may also reflect some difficulty in pinning down who exactly fits the ‘likely voter’ mold for a runoff election: is it anyone who voted in November, or only someone who votes with regularity? Martin probably owes his close showing in the general to high turnout from young and/or African-American voters with sporadic voting track records but who were highly motivated to come out for Obama… and Obama seems hesitant to expend too much political capital on this race right now. On the other hand, with Republicans probably demoralized and undermotivated to return to the polls, and with a lot of Obama staffers deployed to the state, it’s at least possible Martin could pull out the upset through disparities in ground game.
But I still find it frustrating that we’re stalled at best… Or possibly falling behind further. Is there anything we can do to convince Obama to stop thinking about raiding Red State electeds & start doing something to get another Dem elected to the Senate to actually implement his agenda?
of votes for Libertarian candidate must go this time for Chambliss. EVEN if he himself prefers Martin. So – i am not surprised. Martin put up great fight and forced Chambliss into run-off (great achievement for modern Georgia), but his chances of winning are far from great…
At the peak of Obama’s victory, martin only managed 46%, and with him about to be sworn in and Democrats holding solid majorities, the only incentive is on the part of Republicans keep Obama from having a bigger majority. Energy tends to shift to the other side as we witnesses in LA in 2002. However, I’m still optimistic about LA-04.
I dont think we will win much of anything for the next few years. Suddenly it seems that Republicans are more energized than Democrats. I just get the feeling that this going to be like that 1992-1996 period where we didnt win anything and were always on the defensive. Now, I almost wish McCain had one. I hate being on the defensive.
anything can happen in a runoff. usually the incumbent is at a disadvantage in a low turnout runoff.