Public Policy Polling (11/22-23, likely voters):
Jim Martin (D): 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±3.3%)
The usual caveats of special election/runoff polling still applies here, of course — it’s tough to nail down a good sample in a low-turnout election, but it’s worth noting that this result is nearly identical to a recent R2K poll showing Saxby up by 51-45.
Tom Jensen has more:
Chambliss leads 69-29 with white voters. Even with a higher than expected black turnout for the runoff that share of the white vote would not be good enough for Martin to win- he needs to move closer to a third of it.
Martin leads with voters under 45, but Chambliss has a staggering 69-31 lead with senior citizens, and with the balance of the electorate between older and younger voters tipping in an old direction for the runoff, that makes Martin’s climb that much harder.
If there’s some solace here, at least we know that the newer generation of Georgians is more progressive than the oldsters.
Not going quietly, the DSCC has a new poll of their own. The Mellman Group (11/21-23, likely voters):
Jim Martin (D): 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4%)
At the very least, every post-election poll agrees that Martin is sitting in the mid-forties, which is still sort of remarkable given just how bad Georgia has looked for Democrats in the past couple of cycles. Anything can happen in a low-turnout election, but this race does seem to be leaning towards Chambliss.
Even if Obama goes down there, I don’t think i’s going to happen. Georgia did not vote for Obama or Martin the first time around. I don’t see how we alter the turout enough to swing it our way without the energy of November 4. It’s almost December and the wind is just out of the sails. However, I think LA-06 is a different story with a fairly favorable district (changed since Katrina) and a strong candidate. That’s where my last-minute money is going.
it doesn’t look good.
I’d bet we lose it by about two points. Martin hasn’t run a particularly good campaign and the DSCC, DNC and Obama never stepped up to the level needed.