Here is the outlook of the Senators that will be up for reelection, including the special elections that will happen in Illinois, Delaware, and New York.
NOTE: Just because a candidate is listed in the table does not necessarily mean that I think they will win. I am only listing the candidates that have received buzz about running.
**Since Barack Obama has already resigned from the Senate, I will have Illinois open until Gov. Blago names a replacement. Gov. Minner in Delaware has already named Ted Kaufman as Joe Biden’s replacement, who I put in the table. I will keep Hillary in the table as well until Gov. Paterson names her replacement.
The table is over the flip.
Retiring incumbents are marked in italics.
| State | Incumbent | Age on 11/02/2010 | Potential to Flip | Potential Challengers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Croft (St. Rep.) Diane Benson (2006 AK-AL nominee) |
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Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08) |
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Chuck DeVore (Asm.) Al Ramirez (telecom sales exec.) |
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Bill Owens (former Gov.) John Elway (ret. quarterback) Tom Tancredo (CO-06) Mike Coffman (Sec. of State) |
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Kevin O’Connor (Assoc. U.S. Att. Gen.) John McKinney (State Sen.) Sam Caligiuri (State Sen.) Lawrence Cafero (House Min. Leader) |
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John Carney (Lt. Gov.) |
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Robert Wexler (FL-19) Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (FL-20) Ron Klein (FL-22) Bill McCollum (Att. Gen.) Allan Bense (State House Speaker) Marco Rubio (former St. House Speaker) |
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Jim Marshall (GA-08) |
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Alexi Giannoulias (Treasurer) Tammy Duckworth (Iraq War veteran) Bobby Rush (IL-01) Luis Gutiérrez (IL-04) Jesse Jackson, Jr. (IL-02) Jan Schakowsky (IL-09) Emil Jones (St. Sen. Pres.) Pat Quinn (Lt. Gov.) Mark Kirk (IL-10) John Shimkus (IL-19) |
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Steve Buyer (IN-04) Mike Pence (IN-06) Todd Rokita (Sec. of State) Becky Skillman (Lt. Gov.) |
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Jerry Moran (KS-01) Todd Tiahrt (KS-04) Ron Thornburgh (Sec. of State) Sandy Praeger (Ins. Comm.) Lee Tafanelli (State Rep.) Derek Schmidt (State Sen.) |
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Jack Conway (Att. Gen.) Crit Luallen (Auditor) Dan Mongiardo (Lt. Gov.) Darlene Price (ex-U.S. Customs agent) |
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Paul Connick (D.A.) Chris John (former LA-07 Rep.) Charlie Melancon (LA-03) Don Cazayoux (LA-06) |
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Mike Sanders (Jackson Co. Exec.) |
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Jon Porter (NV-03) |
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Paul Hodes (NH-02) |
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Heath Shuler (NC-11) Richard Moore (Treasurer) |
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because there isn’t a chance in hell he’s running for Senate. He’s now just not even a year into his job. A more likely option from Philly is Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz.
The grapevine says that he’s looking at a run for NV-Gov, not for the Senate. In any event, Jon Porter seems like a likelier candidate.
There has got to be some better candidates than the Philly mayor or Chris Matthews of all people, if you’re going to rank it as a High in the Potential to Flip category.
As for SD, Daschle’s out because he’s going to be Obama’s HHS Secretary, which leaves Herseth Sandlin going up against Thune. It may be more to Thune’s advantage, since he hasn’t made any major fuck ups during his first term.
barring any major screwups by Obama, that 2010 will be to the Democrats what 2002 was to the Republicans; we make up some ground on our territory, but it’s a wash on theirs.
Be mindful our territory is larger than it was before three weeks ago, which means the best targets might be Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina. Our chances in the red state seats we want to challenge; Louisiana, Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma probably hinge on which candidate we get.
There is an excellent chance that we can flip Ohio’s other Senate seat just as we deposed of DeWhine in 2006. It’s a darn shame that Voinovich didn’t have to run this year!
You can scratch Jackson, Brunner and Coleman from the list.
It’ll be Fisher vs Ryan in a tough primary battle. I would have been supported our new AG Rich Cordray, but I hear that he accepted the AG slot with the understanding that he wouldn’t run for the Senate, especially against Fisher. Strickland and ODP want Rich as AG during redistricting and reapportionment, both for his vote and for his talent. (Ditto Brunner.) But beyond that, they don’t want anyone to stop Fisher.
Ryan is very much a centrist. Ironically, I think that he would do better than Fisher in a general election battle against Voinovich, but I would expect Fisher to win the primary with ODP’s backing. Fisher will draw the Party HQ support as well as the progressive elements of the Party. Ryan does very well with socially conservative voters who lean Dem on economic issues. He draws well with white ethnic groups and Catholics. Nether does worth beans with AA urban voters.
I’ve seen poll numbers which show that Jackson is doomed outside of the NE Ohio (and has some disturbingly high negatives even there.) Also, the Cuyahoga county Party and it’s public officials are in the middle of a scandal investigation. There’s too much fodder for the GOPers. Coleman was damaged because, when he was running for Governor, his wife was on the public payroll as a practicing alcoholic and got caught falsifying her time card.
Given the Byzantine MESS that is Ohio Election law, I HOPE that Judge Brunner stays on at SoS until we can COMPLETELY rewrite a SANE and total overhaul of our election rules.
And, of course, one must consider than Voinovich might not run again…
FL-Sen = Robert Wexler doesn’t come up on the list? He’s jumping through a lot of hoops that signal he’s running for senate.
IA-Sen = Why doesn’t Vilsack come up on the list? He’s probably in the running for Department of Agriculture, but you have Daschle listed and he’s already been tapped for Secretary of HHS. I don’t see why Daschle is listed, his running isn’t really an option for anyone.
PA-Sen = Rep. Allyson Schwarz (I don’t know if I mispelled that or not) is going to run, I don’t know why she isn’t on your list, and Nutter is probably content where he is at, he was lucky to win his mayor campaign against two bigger and better funded candidates. I doubt he’d give luck a chance again.
ND-Sen = Governor Hoeven is a Republican. For some reason his name isn’t in red.
LA-Sen = Supposedly Fmr. Governor Blanco is looking into a potential senate run.
KY-Sen = Rep. Chandler is looking at a senate race… I didn’t think that was much of a secret.
have Ben Chandler on the list? People don’t understand that he didn’t think that McConnell would be vulnerable this year. He was biding his time to go after the far less popular and more controversial Bunning. Chandler has been running for this since 2004, and everybody knows it and no Democrat is going to stand in his way.
Anyone know where I can find senators’ approval/disapproval ratings? It would great if there were somewhere that compiled ratings from various pollsters.
So far, our top offense races look like:
– Florida (Toss-up)
– New Hampshire (Toss-up)
– Ohio (Toss-up)
– Pennsylvania (Toss-up)
– Kentucky (Toss-up)
– North Carolina (Leans GOP)
– Arizona (Leans GOP)
– Missouri (Leans GOP)
And so far, our top defense races look like:
– Wisconsin (Leans Dem)
– Nevada (Leans Dem)
– Arkansas (Likely Dem)
– Colorado (Likely Dem)
Does that sound right? All the GOP Senators in the new blue states (NC, OH, FL) & new solid blue states (NH & PA) look vulnerable while only WI & NV look remotely competitive. If this holds up, we may be looking at our 3rd cycle in a row with no Dem losses & more GOP losses! 😉