GA-Sen: Two More Polls Have Chambliss Ahead

Public Policy Polling (11/29-30, likely voters, 11/22-23 in parens)

Jim Martin (D): 46 (46)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53 (52)

Undecided: 1 (2)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Tom Jensen says:

Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely.

Not looking good. The other survey, from Insider Advantage, isn’t looking much better (11/30, likely voters, 11/23 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 46 (47)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)

Undecided: 4 (3)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Matt Towery of IA offers some succor:

The race could be a 10-point blowout for Chambliss, or under the right circumstances, a very tight contest. This is like trying to forecast snow in Georgia – almost impossible.

I’m not sanguine. Nine polls by five different pollsters have all given Chambliss the lead. Could they all be wrong, Alaska-style? Sure, but I wouldn’t count on it.

8 thoughts on “GA-Sen: Two More Polls Have Chambliss Ahead”

  2. Being a Red Sox fan, when I watched the Sox in 2004, they lost three games against the Yankees.  Then I went to bed in the midst of the fourth, and they came back to win the ALCS championship and the World Series.

    When I watched the specials in OH-05 and VA-01, neither of them panned out.

    When I watched the special in MS-01, Childers narrowly missed a majority.

    I missed watching LA-06, and we won that special handily.

    I went crazy live-commenting here and in chat about the 2008 elections, and we won not 30, 40, or 50 House seats but only a measly 25 or so.  Well, granted, I followed 2006’s MT-Sen and VA-Sen obsessively in the days following the election, but we’d already kinda won those.  WY-AL, OH-02, and NC-08 didn’t pan out though (though we do now have NC-08).

    So yeah, I’m just going to ignore the election tomorrow–or at least as much as a political junkie like myself can.

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