It comes as no surprise that Democrat Ethan Berkowitz is considering running for Alaska’s at-large House seat again in 2010, but his reasoning might cause a few heads to explode among the “doom and gloom” crowd: he thinks that the environment will be better for a Democrat in two years. From Roll Call (sub. not req’d):
Berkowitz said in a phone interview Tuesday night that he is “considering” a second bid against Young, who is still under federal investigation.
The Democrat said he planned to take the next few months off from the campaign trail before making a final decision, but he was quick to point out that he received more votes than any other Democrat in state history with the exception of Sen.-elect Mark Begich (D).
“It seems to me that as Alaska sees the sensible course that the Obama administration takes, some of the demonizing of Democrats will evaporate,” Berkowitz said.
Of course, the state of this seat is still very much in flux. Don Young could end up indicted, on the losing end of a primary challenge, or maybe living in a retirement complex on Coconut Road in two years.
It’s a non-presidential, non-Sarah-Palin-for-VP year.
1. Sarah Palin will not be running for Vice President.
2. Don Young’s war chest has been spent. He was down to $157 K as of October 15 so he’s stony broke right now and not likely to attract large donations. So instead of spending $3 million, he’ll be c;oser to $1 or $1.2 million. Berkowitz can outraise him.
3. Plus I think we will be out of the Bush recession by the time the 2010 midterms roll in (We are a full 12 months in and have 10 to 13 months to go).
4. Re-alignments normally cover four elections, not two. In some cases like 1800 and 1860, the third or fourth elections are at least as good as the first two.
Alaskan oil revenue checks will be a lot smaller than the $3,200 announced before the election. At $1,200 or $1,500 per head, Palin and the Republicans may be less popular.
And, Alaskans voted out a crook in 2008. Young was the surly curmudgeon and Stevens was the crook. Now, Don is the crook. Murkowski is the “clean” Republican.
I hope he does. If Young’s their candidate again I think we can win.
Alaska would’ve probably been a lot more competitive on the presidential level which would’ve made it a lot easier for Berkowitz to win.
That said, if Don Young isn’t on the ticket again, that House seat will be next to impossible to win in the near future.
I hope he runs. He could keep Republicans on the defense here and he can raise some solid cash.
is a bonus. While Palin will be on the ballot, it helps in these red districts to not have the number of people voting double as those other people are much more likely to go with the trend of their district, and since the trend is heavily Republican, that is where they will be voting.
We can win in an off-year. Especially if Obama has completely rocked it out, and he just may well do that.
Bill Nolan: BAH YOU’RE WRONG DOOM AND GLOOM!!!!!
just watch…….
You don’t just walk away from a 5-point loss without thinking, “maybe next time”. Hopefully Young gets convicted the week before the election.
simply to try and keep the Republicans on the defensive.
is that a big issue for alaska on the federal level is getting earmarks. this can be easier to accomplish when in the majority.
Either CQ or Politico had an article this week that showed that of 16 rematch elections, only 3 went to the challenger, and in most the incumbent won by a lot more than the last time. Doesn’t mean Ethan shouldn’t run, but he does have the risk of a second straight solid defeat which could all but end his political career.
with oil prices coming down the repubs might not have such an easy time with reelection.