The time is upon us.
RESULTS: LA SoS | Associated Press
11:02PM: This thread is getting stuffy — let’s continue this conversation over here.
10:54PM: The last few Caddo precincts are now in, and have cut Carmouche’s lead down to a bit over 1800 votes. This looks like it’ll be very, very close.
10:46PM (David): So 90% of the precincts have reported in Caddo, while about half have in Bossier. Bossier is going 58-36 for Fleming right now. If that margin holds, we should win. If it gets redder, we’ll probably lose.
10:45PM: Eight more precincts from Caddo report, and Carmouche is now up by 2200 votes.
10:38PM (David): Check this out: In LA-02, Republican Anh Cao is leading 53-43 right now. Wild!
10:35PM: It’s all Bossier and Caddo now. 61 precincts left — 37 from Bossier and 24 from Caddo. Carmouche currently leads by about 1850 votes.
10:26PM: 535 precincts in, and Carmouche leads by 3300 votes. However, a great deal of the outstanding vote is in Bossier Parish, which will hurt us. Looks like this could go down to the wire…
10:12PM: 403 precincts in now, and Carmouche leads by under 1900 votes, based on a strong romping in the early returns from Shreveport. Note that Obama just barely edged McCain here, while Carmouche so far has racked up a 2-to-1 lead in Caddo Parish.
10:02PM: Another Caddo batch in, which has completely offset Fleming’s gains from Beauregard and Grant — with 377 precincts reporting, Carmouche is back up by 1700 votes or so. Caddo has under two-thirds of its vote left to report.
9:56PM: Finally, we’re getting some numbers from the conservative Bossier Parish — and it’s helped cut down Carmouche’s lead down to 430 votes with 277 precincts reporting. Still looking pretty good overall, though.
9:51PM: A blast of votes in from Caddo and Bienville, and now Carmouche is ahead by 2400 votes with 229 precincts reporting.
9:46PM: 141 precincts in, and Fleming is now back up by about 165 votes. So far, though, Carmouche is winning a few counties that Obama lost (Bienville, DeSoto, Grant, Natchitoches, Red River, and Webster), and a lot of votes are left to count in Caddo. I haven’t run any numbers, but so far I’d say that this is looking much better than I anticipated.
9:42PM: 102 precincts in, and Carmouche leads by 485 votes.
9:39PM: 83 precincts in, and Team Blue now leads by 450 votes. We’re starting to see some more votes coming in from Caddo (Shreveport, Carmouche’s base).
9:35PM: 64 precincts in (exactly 10%), and Carmouche now leads by about 340 votes.
9:32PM: Geaux ‘Mouche! Fleming leads by just 37 votes with 50 precincts reporting.
9:29PM: In the comments, conspiracy posts some good county baselines. Basically, Obama only won Caddo here in November. So far, the ‘Mouche is winning a few more counties, and running closer elsewhere. 49-48 for Fleming now.
9:25PM: 19 precincts reporting, and it’s 50-48 Fleming.
9:24PM: 10 precincts in now, and Fleming is up by 52-46.
9:11PM: With just 5 of 640 precincts reporting, Fleming leads by 59-39.
n/t
If Carmouche can hold these percentages and then win Caddo by 13%-15%, he will win.
n/t
On a seperate note, I will be pissed if the Green costs us the seat.
All I can tell is that he’s an independent.
Obama won Caddo, McCain all the rest.
Caddo 51-48
Bossier 72-28
Vernon 76-22
Natchitoches 53-46
DeSoto 56-43
Beauregard 76-22
Webster 63-36
Sabine 75-23
Claiborne 55-44
Bienville 51-49
Grant 81-17
Red River 54-45
Allen 67-30
Fleming is leading 4489-4329. I’ve got my fingers crossed.
Does anyone know what margins we have to get where in order to win?
Which Landrieu barely won. Could be a “swing county”?
I know its early, but could we be talking recount?
Carmouche is ahead!
and carmouche takes the lead
Look at Natchitoches. The GOP down there really works to get their folks to early vote or absentee vote. The Dems down here didn’t until this year.
N/T
Carmouche is up again
pulling ahead!
Go Carmouche! It’d be great for LA to have another Blue Dog.
Who is he hurting with his 2%?
from LA-02. NO always reports late, doesn’t it?
caddo was the only parish to vote for obama and has 158 0f 640 precincts in the district,it is just starting to report (4 precincts in so far)meaning that a big chunk of the remaining vote is in relatively pro-carmouche areas (154 out of 518 precincts are in caddo alone)
Cao is ahead of Jefferson, but by only 400 votes or so.
Carmouche has a lot to gain from Caddo. Appears like it will come down to Caddo vs. Bossier.
It’s mainly because of results of counties that were highly favorable to McCain and Kennedy in the general. Nothing really out of Caddo.
and now he is up by a few.
Now I check again and Carmouche is up to 51%.
sigh
Beinville, DeSoto, Grant, Natchitoches, Red River, Webster.
he’s already leading and just outer Caddo is reporting. Heavily Black inner city precincts haven’t come in. Caddo is 3% in and should override Bossier. He’s winning in the two other population center, Nachidotches. Most of the outstanding votes, or a slim majority, seem to be coming from his areas.
there just aren’t enough votes left in bossier for fleming to win
with almost nothing in…looks like quite a few republican precincts.
Great to see some potential history in the making, as the first Vietnamese American may get elected to Congress. Surprising it took this long since America’s history with Vietnam is a cornerstone of America’s evolution as a nation.
Also, great to see that William “Dollar Bill” Jefferson may be going down. Maybe he could get a job as a financial adviser. You know, advise people the best way to save money is to put it in the freezer?
But that’s understandable, just need to make up ground in Caddo which is creeping in.
New data just in…
U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District
22 of 492 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
1,023
38.90%
William J. Jefferson, D
–
93
3.54%
Malik Rahim, G
–
33
1.25%
Gregory W. Kahn, L
–
1,481
56.31%
Anh “Joseph” Cao, R
–
U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District
290 of 640 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
17,965
48.28%
Paul J. Carmouche, D
–
17,940
48.21%
John Fleming, R
–
303
.81%
Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O
–
1,001
2.69%
Chester T. “Catfish” Kelley, N
We’re cutting awfully close…
with more votes coming from many of the rural strong holds, including Grant parish.
Looks really good
Hopefully if he ends up winning he wont end up like Cazayoux, a one term wonder.
all at once and gave Carmouche about another one hundred votes to his lead.
Carmouche may really win!
U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District
80 of 492 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
3,628
42.33%
William J. Jefferson, D
–
354
4.13%
Malik Rahim, G
–
80
.93%
Gregory W. Kahn, L
–
4,508
52.60%
Anh “Joseph” Cao, R
–
U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District
397 of 640 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
26,057
49.80%
Paul J. Carmouche, D
–
24,320
46.48%
John Fleming, R
–
410
.78%
Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O
–
1,540
2.94%
Chester T. “Catfish” Kelley, N
And at least Jefferson is catching up now in LA-02. He may be a corrupt SOB, but I’m a little too scared of seeing a far-right CReep win to root for his loss.
As long as he stays a Democrat, unlike Rodney Alexander, I’ll be happy. Also, 2008 is not 2004 and, as Melancon not switching shows, there’s no incentive to switch parties.
Well it’s going to be close, still Caddo vs. Bossier. Hopefully there are enough good precincts left in Caddo.
When Bossier is all the way in.
Jefferson is still getting crushed.
I’m comparing precinct-by-precinct results to those from the 2006 runoff (Jefferson vs Carter), and results are mixed but Cao seems to be doing worse than Carter did in general. He’s ahead right now, only because the precincts reporting so far are favorable to him.
I’m predicting a Jefferson victory, 59-41. Closer than expected, but unfortunately, he’ll probably live… this is a Democrat that we could definitely do better without.
Jefferson is still losing.
I noticed his website says almost nothing of his stances on the issues. Would he be tolerable in Congress for 2 years if he did pull off an upset?
A bit more than 1k for Carmouche… which precincts are left? Are they more favorable to him or less favorable?
U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District
139 of 492 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
7,764
38.73%
William J. Jefferson, D
–
444
2.22%
Malik Rahim, G
–
178
.89%
Gregory W. Kahn, L
–
11,658
58.16%
Anh “Joseph” Cao, R
–
U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District
446 of 640 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
27,120
49.13%
Paul J. Carmouche, D
–
26,023
47.14%
John Fleming, R
–
439
.80%
Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O
–
1,621
2.94%
Chester T. “Catfish” Kelley, N
Can we actually lose LA-02 tonight? Even as we may win LA-04? I’m getting worried now.
Still leading by 1220. I’m feeling good. Anyone know what recount law is though?
If he wins, he will have to resign when he is convicted. Then a Dem will win the Special Election
Just mostly Bossier left to report and a 2,000 vote lead. It could go either way.
About 30 precincts in Caddo, 65 in Bossier, and a dozen in DeSoto where Carmouche is leading.
It’s going to be close.
About 2.3k lead but A LOT of Bossier left…
Are they in Shreveport?
Big Bossier batch of precincts didn’t hurt Carmouche too much.
Fleming wins by 4,500 votes. This is, of course, dependent on the remaining Bossier precincts staying the way they are.
That said, Fleming is getting 68-69% in Bossier now, and McCain got 71%. Hopefully, the remaining Bossier precincts will be a little friendlier.
This is what is left-
Caddo- Carmouche up 58-38%- 87% in (13% out)
DeSoto- Carmouche up 57-39%- 76%in (24% out)
Bossier- Fleming up 66-29%- 13% in (87% out)
Beauregard- Fleming up 66-31%- 98% in (2% out)
Mostly northern villages are left (precincts 139-157).
http://www.shreveporttimes.com…
Tells me that with only 32 precincts in Bossier in and 1 in Beauregard and 131 in Caddo, that Fleming will net around 786 votes. Carmouche is up 2.5K, with no provisional ballots in.
96% to be exact.
On the other hand, 43% of Bossier is in now and Fleming is now only up 59-36%
Photo finish Melancon circa ’04 style.
Mouche lost the first 10 by 1400 but these last 22 by only about 200. Still have those Caddo 27 as an ace in the stretch run!
Pretty representative of what a win might look like:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RES…
Precincts are either 85-15 republican or 95-5 democratic. Not a lot of in-between. The old south at it’s finest.
Carmouche friendly. No by linear projection, only a net gain of 300 for Fleming (total outstanding precincts).
by about her statewide average. She won all of the counties but Bossier(39%), Vernon(40%), Sabine(38%), and Grant(33%).
And the racial backlash against Obama was well pronounced in LA. I think comparing the margins is helpful and she won the state in a competitive race which is comparable to this situation. Hopefully Carmouche out performs significantly in Caddo in his home county. I don’t think Landrieu is from this area of the state either.
were 60% McCain on Election Day.
Carmouche is outperforming Obama by roughly 9%. Remaining precincts should be a wash.
‘mouche won it 52-43%.
Also 51% of Bossier and holding steady at 59-36%.
the last 28 Bossier only hurt us by 400 votes and we are up 1800. If the Caddo 24 can offset the Bossier 37 we can be OK here!
will there be a run-off if no one gets 50%
What are the %s now?
U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District
265 of 492 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
15,280
43.21%
William J. Jefferson, D
–
1,043
2.95%
Malik Rahim, G
–
307
.87%
Gregory W. Kahn, L
–
18,733
52.97%
Anh “Joseph” Cao, R
–
U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District
579 of 640 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
39,914
49.08%
Paul J. Carmouche, D
–
38,061
46.80%
John Fleming, R
–
601
.74%
Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O
–
2,747
3.38%
Chester T. “Catfish” Kelley, N
2 for 2, baby! Carmouche is now leading by over 1800 votes. Meanwhile, Jefferson’s now within 10% with about 60% of precincts left to report. We may just win both LA races! 🙂
Outside NOLA, Blue Dog is the best we can get in Louisiana.
Carmouche won Webster County, whose parish seat is Minden, where Fleming is from. So Fleming just lost his political base, similar territory to the northern Caddo precincts still left, plus several inner city ones.
Nothing wrong with that.
Before last batch of Cappo just came in.
Final numbers if percentages stay the same in the last two counties:
Carmouche 46037
Fleming 44882
(note more came in in Cappo, so I’ll have to run again)
So does the LA SOS.
Is that the less democratic parish in the 2nd? It’s mostly in with most of the votes left from Orleans.
You know, it would be kinda funny if we lost that seat while winning the other one.
Carmouche by 2,200 – if parishes stay the same.
Caveats:
-outstanding Bossier precincts 2.22% more Republican than parish as whole.
-outstanding Caddo precincts 19.22% more Republican than parish as whole.
Those last Shreveport precincts were indeed nothing to write home about, basically just Republican towns.
See Here
Now I know what a Republican in Illinois feels like.
Caddo 100% in
says that Fleming get 1750 more votes in Bossier. That leaves Carmouche up by only 109 votes!
Are there provisional ballots in this thing?
better.
For those who are really lazy with math 😀
Basically half the precincts of Bossier are in. If you double the current numbers, Carmouche’s final lead will be less than 100.
This will be close!
Some of those precincts right now have 108-1 and 107-6 Jefferson leads. Once more of New Orleans comes in, he should end up winning.
by 356 votes
Provisional votes to the rescue?????????
They held Bossier and fixed it up so Fleming has a 400 vote lead.
Including Senate and Presidential data, the outstanding precincts seem to be 1.80% more Republican than the parish as a whole.
Given a straight linear projection, Carmouche by 109.
Using the 1.80% number, Fleming by 431.
Carmouche can only hold if the outstanding precincts are 0.37% more Republican than the parish as a whole.
He needs 37.97% of the remaining 2-party vote.
Louisiana almost never boots incumbents and Carmouche is a perfect fit for the 4th district. Cazayoux was an exception to the rule due mainly to a 3rd party idiot.
gets into the race in 2010.
A career in the minority is no fun, as I am sure Jim McCrery would tell you.
We’d be hearing A LOT of crowing for the next few months.
So I’d personally would rather see Jefferson win to be honest, if it would lessen the noise.
The Republicans might have picked up the senate seat.