Democrat Brad Henry is term-limited out of the governor’s office in Oklahoma in 2010… which is the same year that crank GOP Sen. Tom Coburn is up for re-election. So, it’s the perfect opportunity for Henry to run for the Senate, right? Well, it would be, but the only problem is that Henry seems to have zero interest whatsoever in joining the Senate.
So, the big questions: Who should Oklahoma Democrats run to replace Henry? And who should run for Coburn’s seat? Since it’s not a given that Coburn will run for re-election, who might step up for the GOP? (A promotion for SSP’s favorite punching bag, Tom Cole, perhaps?)
For Governor, it seems like it could be a primary fight between Attorney General Drew Edmondson and Lt. Governor Jari Askins. For Senator, the only chance for a pick-up would be if Tom Coburn decides not to run for re-election. In that case, Dan Boren would be a likely candidate, but Brad Henry may reasess the situation.
Andrew Rice lost by half the mmargin statewide that Obama did. He might have a run for Governor in him. Glenn Coffee was the stae Senate leader last year (mostly). He might be a possibility. Oklahoma Republicans gained control of the State Senate this November for the first time in the state’s history, breaking a 24-24 tie. The State Senate had co-leaders with the Republican in charge for less than half the year.
On the Republican side, our best hope might be Ernest Istook who lost handily against Brad Henry but won a contested primary IIRC. Mary Fallin, currently a House member, was Lt.-Governor. I really know nothing about the other two Republicans in Congress (other than Cole). Maybe Lucas for example wants to go state wide or Sullivan.
This is going to be a tough run for Senator. Oklahoma gave McCain over 65% of the vote, his highest statewide percentage anywhere. McCain carried every county in Oklahoma. Governor seems to be a different animal just as it is for, sy, Republicans in Massachusetts. We have a real shot there.
This strikes me as one of those Senate races where we have to have one particular candidate to have any shot at winning. Considering Henry seems to have no interest in running it’s probably not going to happen. So we’ll probably be stuck with another second-string candidate like Rice who will lose by a similar 15 point or so margin.
he had a two term pledge in 2004. As for Governor, it’ll probably be Fallin with some minor opposition. Oklahoma City Mayor Micky Cornett will run for her open congressional seat, probably against Denise Bode. Rice should run for that open seat as that is all he has even a small shot in. Popular four term Attorney General Drew Edmonson will probably run for Governor and has a good shot at winning depending what the environment looks like.
I would be shocked if Henry ran. Him and former Senator David Boren (current President of the University of Oklahoma) are unfortunately the only two Democrats capable of winning the Senate race. Neither one of them are viable possibilities.
Like yall said, Governor is a totally different situation. My choice is our longtime Attorney General Drew Edmonson. He’s the bane of the right-wing’s existence here in Oklahoma. While he’s still a very moderate Democrat, he has a lot more fight in him than Henry. A more aggressive version of Henry would do this state a ton of good.
While I think Edmonson is very, very likely to run for governor, don’t be surprised if there’s a primary between him and current Lt. Governor Jari Askins. While I’m a big believer that (most) tough primaries ultimately help us, an Edmonson Askins matchup is not something we want. A high profile primary would be great if neither candidate was particularly well-known but both Askins and Edmonson have good enough name I.D. as it is. Furthermore, Askins campaign for Lt. Gov. in 2006 got slightly ugly in the primary so I’m definitely hoping that Askins decides to stay put at Lt. Gov.
Although we have a deep bench, the only other potential candidates for either Senate or Governor at this point are U.S. Congressman Dan Boren and State Treasurer Scott Meacham. At this point, though, I’d say both of them are unlikely.
but aren’t there more registered Democrats in Oklahoma than Republicans? Of course, the electorate in Oklahoma is about as conservative as any state East of Oklahoma. I could see a conservative Democrat winning Oklahoma’s Governors race, but I don’t see the Dems winning the Senate race. I think Boren lost to Coburn by 12% in 2004, and that may be close to the ceiling in Oklahoma. Not to try sounding like a Debbie Downer, but I’d rather have the DSCC concentrate on other senate races in 2010.
And it doesn’t look like he will, OK-Sen is pretty much a lost cause. Oklahoma is one of the few states where McCain actually performed better than Bush, and Tom Coburn actually has a pretty good approval rating.
Unfortunately, the trend is shifting against us in OK & Coburn probably has that Senate seat for as long as he wants it. Ugh. 🙁
he actually did better than Kerry in the cities of Tulsa and Oklahoma City (which was balanced out by McCain doing better everywhere else in the state). Maybe one of those small urban congressional districts will finally become competitive for us, besides the already Dem-leaning eastern rural district.
As for senator, it’s probably Henry or no one.
http://www.campaignmoney.com/p…
Pro: Democrat, Oklahoma legend, not sure what he’s doing
Con: 71 years old, would run in Oklahoma as a Democrat
Am I crazy? We could definitely do worse. Maybe Congressman Shuler could give him some advice about the transition into politics.
between Edmonson and Askins is shaping up. I hope one of them takes a go at the Senate.
Also, Cole for Senate! Then we can have a Cole NRSC deathwatch!
He’d have to be a better Democrat than that asshat Boren. Boren didn’t even endorse Obama!
There are many good canidates for either seat and in a none pres. year with a good canidate at the top for gov. We have chance. Oklahoma on like most states did not get any bluer in the last election but on like say Arkansas it did not move the wrong way either 67/33 but we have a deep bench of well know state wide elected dems. Brad Henry is are best choice at senate but if cole runs for gov and I think he will from what I here then we could make that race more competive and with beter preformance in cd-4 I think state sen. John sparks will run for that and he can raise the money to make it a real race a good canidate from western oklahoma like State tresure Scott Meacham could preform well in the senate race and may even have a 50/50 chance at an open seat and like 60/40 against if coburn runs. There is always Barry Switzer or Tobias Covell but I don’t see him giving up is recording contract and either edmonson or askins make great canidates for either seat and jerry could help with turn out in her base in Duncan which would help are canidate in CD-4 so I would prefer them in this order
Gov. Jerry Askins, Drew Edmondson
Ltgov. If Jerry runs for gov. Anderew Rice, Pete Regan or Jay Parmaly
And for Senate Brad Henry Scott Meacham Jerry Askins Dan Boren
Oklahoma is extremely unlikely to elect a Democratic Senator and I’d be surprised if they held the Governor’s chair either.
It’s going the wrong way pretty badly and I can’t see that changing – how much worse would it have to get for that to happen? So I for one am all in favour of finding the furthest left candidate we can get and running him, just to give Tom Coburn the type of opponent he deserves.