Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Lisa Murkowski (R-inc): 31
Sarah Palin (R): 55
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±5%)
As Markos reminds us, the polling in Alaska this past cycle (including Research 2000’s) was abysmal, so we need to view these numbers with appropriate skepticism. Nonetheless, this is a matchup I’d want to see almost no matter what. There’s nothing like a top-dollar GOP food fight to warm my heart.
R2K also tested a bunch of other gov & sen matchups, but we’re hamstrung by the lack of Dem candidates with any real name recognition. It’s hard to feel too optimistic for the Alaska Division of Team Blue at this early juncture. But who knows? Maybe an ultra-nasty Republican primary battle could jar this seat loose for us.
Alaska Dems’ number one priority has to be establishing Begich. In six years, he’s going to be a top target. We need to make him an institution. We’re not going to take this seat; most of the money we could spend there should be spent on direct-mail pieces for Begich.
I really like Mark, and it’s going to be a challenge to keep him in office. Rather than spend money trying to get Tony Knowles elected again, we should really throw our support behind him immediately.
Anyone who thinks the Dems. have even a miniscule chance of winning this AK seat also is delusional and has smoked too much dope. I’d love for it to happen but no way!!!!!!!!
The numbers are good, she can’t stay away from the spotlight, and Alaskans absolutely hate the Murkowski family. I think now that the GOP seems to be going with the “replace any even remotely human incumbent with a batshit crazy” approach, we’re going to see a disproportionate number of incumbents primaried. Of those, this is the one that has the best chance of succeeding. Regardless of the unreliability of the R2K polls in Alaska this cycle, they were all overpredicting Democrats, not underpredicting Republicans, and we already know that Palin is way more popular than any Murkowski by default.
Those of us who breathed a sigh of relief when Begich won because it meant no Senator Palin are going to be very disappointed next year.
assuming palin doesn’t run is to make sure ALL the pork that goes to alaska goes through begich, and alaska knows it. the state will most likely be on a pork diet, so every bit will be important to them, and if the message is sent that the ONLY way to get pork is through begich, it might be enough. sure stevens lost, but not by much, and alaska will probably be hungrier forpork after six years of going without.
On one hand, getting Palin in there now eliminates the top-tier challenger to Begich in 2014. Granted, we’ll have to put up with her 4 years earlier but what the hell? It makes our re-election prospects higher.
On the other hand, Murkowski is a moderate. She votes with us on a handful of economic issues, supports stem-cell research, and will not make a fuss about Obama’s judges. Palin, OTOH, has the potential to be Jesse Helms II.
Choices, choices…
I don’t see the logic in Palin running for Senate. If she wants to establish her credentials for a presidential run, she should prove her mettle as an executive and win reelection as governor. She will have a lot more to show and can get a lot more done as the one person in the governor’s chair than one out of 100 Senators–and in the minority party at that. Plus being in DC would tarnish her “maverick” “outside the beltway” (waaaaaaay outside) image.
But logic has never seemed the guiding principle for her, so who knows?
…seeing Palin beating ANYBODY, even Rod Blagojevich or Attila the Hun in a primary or general, is enough to make me want to throw up.
If Palin is going to run, I’d have the Dems nominate Murkowski, so if she loses the primary, as she would, she could have a better chance in the general.