Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/5-7, likely voters):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 40
(MoE: ±4%)
First, here’s the bad news: Barbara Boxer is under the 50% mark that represents relative safety for an incumbent. The rest of the story is pretty good: that’s against Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is the best-known and probably most popular Republican in California, a guy who many people have feared would convincingly defeat Boxer or at least turn this expensive blue-state seat into a top-tier tossup.
And that presumes that Schwarzenegger even runs, which may not be likely at this point, as his popularity (which enjoyed a resurgence just in time for his re-election in 2006) seems to be waning again. The same sample gives him 42/51 favorable/unfavorable ratings (note that almost everyone in the state has an opinion, meaning he’d have to start changing minds instead of just winning over undecideds).
Californians aren’t that red-hot about Boxer either (she has a lukewarm 48/46 favorable/unfavorable). But if Arnold says ‘hasta la vista’ to electoral politics, with the other potentially strong statewide California Republicans (Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman) eyeing the governor’s seat, and with probably none of the GOP House members willing to give up their safe seats on a fool’s errand, it’s possible she might only draw second- (or third-) tier opposition again.
is like a yo-yo in terms of popularity; I thought he was toast in 2005, but he turned that around in record time.
I don’t think he’s likely to run, though (also, I want another “Terminator” movie).
it would be extremely hard for him to win the primary. The California Republican Party is to the right of the national party, there’s no way they would accept an anti-prop 8, pro-choice, and on occasion pro-tax candidate like Schwarzenegger.
If Gregg is vulnerable with those numbers then so should Boxer be with similar numbers. But yeah this is Arnold we are talking about. I would honestly be expecting him to be doing better than this. Very encouraging.
This riveting discussion, but this just came through the rumor mill regarding the Ohio Senate race.
If it’s true, then the Dominoes will really begin the fall as the year progresses.
I think Boxer would beat Arnold, but it might be close. Probably something like a 53-47 or 54-46 win for Boxer. I suspect California would be less comfortable sending a Arnold to D.C. than they do Sacramento.