Matt Lewis sez so:
… In other news, I am hearing rumors coming out of Ohio that Senator Voinovich is seriously considering making an announcement next week that he won’t be running for re-election. According to my sources, Rob Portman would likely be the Republican to replace him. This also opens up the GOP gubernatorial nomination for former Republican Congressman John Kasich.
Hoo-boy. A Voinovich retirement would make four in the Senate GOP’s ranks (Brownback, Martinez, and Bond being the first to go), and would surely turn into a top-tier tossup race, with Democrats Lee Fisher (Ohio’s Lt. Governor) and Rep. Tim Ryan being two of the most likely primary contenders. I have to wonder, though: would it have been better for either of these guys to run against Voino rather than a magically unblemished Rob Portman? Discuss.
(Mad props to Populista for the catch.)
Update: Voiny’s office confirms what we already know:
Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) is considering retirement, but his office confirmed he has not yet made a final decision about what he will do in 2010.
“For over 40 years, Sen. Voinovich has demonstrated a passion for public service,” said Chris Paulitz, a senior adviser to Voinovich. “He is thinking about the challenging situation in his beloved Buckeye State and the direction of the country, as well as what is best for his family. If he changes his mind about running, he will share that decision quickly with the people of Ohio – people he considers his second family.”
I’d rather Voinovich retire though it isn’t like Grassley or Gregg where retirements are needed to push them into the top tier.
That’s a year I’m not looking forward to (at least as far as our senatorial prospects are concerned… shudder
But anyways, we should have a good shot at making Ohio a true-blue state for the senate (thus joining the ranks of such wonderful places like New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, and California [and many, many more :D]).
my username has made it to the front page of the Swing State Project!
If Voinovich retires and we get one of our top 10 recruits we win this no matter who they put up. Portman and Kasich are both way to conservative economically to win Ohio. Strickland, Fisher, Burner, Codey, Ryan, Sutton, Coleman, Space, Kaptur and Hackett just to name 10 could beat either of them, IMHO.
On the plus side… Voinovich would probably be able to raise more money as an incumbent senator than any non-incumbent will. A primary could damage the Republican candidate before the general election.
On the negative side… Voinovich was already damaged goods and a new Republican candidate would have the opportunity to define himself.
Voinovich at least had a reputation as a moderate. Unless Bush is “vindicated by history” (ha!) in the next two years, Portman’s connections to Bush will hurt him.
Would help! Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Voinovich as an incumbent is considerably stronger than Portman in an open race, I think. Voinovich, like Grassley, is good enough and just moderate enough that voters will be slightly reluctant to “fire” him. In a clear open contest though, Portman will have few selling points other than “against Obama”, if indeed that is what Ohio wants in two years. Otherwise his record is too extreme for the state. He’s got nothing to sell except “will oppose Obama.”
I dearly hope Voinovich retires. Grassley would be even better. Senator Braley would be a rockstar.
Rob Portman is a former Cinncinnati congressman. How much of Ohio knows or cares who the OMB chairman is? And how many of those could be soured upon him once it’s revealed what the OMB did under his leadership? There’s a reason why McCain didn’t pick him – it’s far from guaranteed that he would have brought Ohio.
quick hits like OpenLeft where active members can post tidbits. But since we don’t and the open thread is way down here’s a tidbit about Alex Sink post-Bush.
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz…
That sounds to me like someone finalizing a run and lining up support. Also Mario Rubio is preparing a run and will be meeting with Big Bad John and Co next week. McCollum is also giving it a hard look and will hopefully jump in and make for a bloody primary.
Some have speculated as soon as KBH begins her gubernatorial campaign, she will resign from the Senate, prompting a special election. Now, we’re not talking about a special election that coincides with the November 2010 midterms are we?
Unless there’s some state law in Texas that I don’t know about, my assumption is that KBH can remain a Senator while running for Governor, and if she’s successful she can then resign her seat, prompting the special election. There’s no reason for her to give up her office if she happens to lose and has nothing to go back to, even if she’s already planned to retire in 2012. But these are Republicans, and I assume they’ll hang onto power as long as they can.
Obama and Biden did this during the presidential campaign. Hell, Biden even ran for reelection as Senator for Delaware while also running for Vice President.
how Voinovich will vote in the Senate? Is it more or less likely that a retiring Voinovich will vote for cloture on some of Obama’s programs like health care, energy, and EFCA?
….I’d take odds on a Democrat like Tim Ryan over Rob Portman any day.
(Wamp, possibly Putnam, Hoekstra had seniority built up…) Maybe Boner will jump ship and run for senate! Although an easy tv ad of him crying would be the dagger to the heart.
My #1 Pick!!
If he does run he’s guaranteed to get a hotly contested primary, and even if he wins that primary he’ll have a split republican base since conservatives dislike him.
After another nice wave in 2008 I was pessimistic about gaining much in 2010. I’m officially excited about 2010 after all these developments in the Senate.
The Governor’s races I’m still not sure what to think. Hard to gauge much of anything this early.
start earlier and earlier every election cycle.
We need their help.
Warm up a wingnut who can win 35% in a four way race.
Voinovich may have been a better target since he has a record to attack but I suspect that an open seat will draw a stronger Democrats into the race. It also forces the NRSC to spend more money then would be necessary if an established incumbent with a war chest could cover their own ass.
who’s matt lewis?
voinovich, i suspect is well liked, well-known and can raise a ton of money and he would also have nothing but a token primary.
if he retires kasich and portman could run – maybe even a current GOP housemember – could be messy (fingers crossed). it would also necessitate the RSC dumping piles of money into OH no matter what.
on our side, would fisher vs ryan be messy?
The report cited is (at best!) just recycling loose talk that has been circulating about Voinovich for a long, long time. There has been NOTHING specific or reliable regarding his retirement. I’m not saying that it won’t happen, but there is NOTHING specific to go on.
And in a sense, it doesn’t matter.
With Sherrod Brown’s win and other recent successes in Ohio, yes, there will be a major effort for this Senate seat in 2010. It doesn’t really matter whether G.V. stays or goes. There are pros and cons each way.
But there is a VERY short list of candidates on the Dem side: Fisher and Ryan.
I have seen polling numbers for some of the House members cited above and they simply don’t have ANY statewide traction. And it will take some serious bucks and (perhaps more importantly) a strong organization to first win the primary and then to be effective in the general election.
Remember, this race will be the “top of the ticket.” No governor or presidential races = lower turnout and less progressive voter pool. The ground game will be everything.
ODP and the Strickland machine will back Fisher who is odds on favorite to win the primary. So much so, that I doubt if most of the Congresscritters mentioned in this thread, even CONSIDER running (other than Ryan.)
For example, Lloyd Mahaffey (the czar of the Ohio UAW) tried to push Marcy Kaptur into running statewide at one point and it went absolutely nowhere. It’s kind of surprising, given that she is the most senior Democratic woman in the U.S. House, but statewide she doesn’t poll well at all.
Betty Sutton, ditto.
I had been supporting Rich Cordray but he took the Ohio AG special election, instead. And, in fact, it’s a good fit.
The real fight will be to protect Judge Brunner at SoS. Ohioans support simple competence, but the tin foil hat wingnuts are going to go bat shit against her. In fact, it comes close to a “bring it on” situation, because I doubt if any amount of money can beat her.