Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/5-7, likely voters):
Roy Cooper (D): 43
Richard Burr (R-inc): 45Richard Moore (D): 40
Richard Burr (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4%)
If you were to ask me, I’d point to Richard Burr as the Republicans’ most endangered incumbent Senator in 2010. He’s kind of a back-bench non-entity up for his first re-election, he made it into office in a strongly Republican year (2004) against an underwhelming opponent (Erskine Bowles), and North Carolina underwent a pretty dramatic blue shift in 2008, although that may dissipate a bit by 2010.
So it’s nice to have some polling data to support my intuition. Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s Attorney General who was just re-elected by a convincing margin, polls very well against Burr, losing by only two points. R2K also tests Richard Moore, the former Treasurer who lost the 2008 gubernatorial primary to then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, who doesn’t poll quite as well (perhaps he’s still tarnished from that acrimonious primary). However, six points back from an incumbent two years out is still a fairly good place to be, too.
Burr’s favorables are only 47 favorable/46 unfavorable, while Cooper’s are 41/21 and Moore is at 37/27, which looks especially nice for Cooper. While media speculation tends to focus on Cooper, it’s not entirely sure whether Cooper will get into the race, and there are a few other top-tier Dems seemingly mulling the race (Rep. Brad Miller comes to mind, as well as Rep. Heath Shuler). But this race easily looks to be a Tossup with Cooper in it (and probably even with Moore or Miller instead).
that Cooper doesn’t lead Burr. Still, this is promising.
I think that Cooper would be my second choice.
I’m pretty sure he’s to the right of Brad Miller but definitely to the left of Heath Shuler, esp. on social issues.
For someone from NC, is he more like Kay Hagan or Mike Easley?
I like Cook, but to call North Caroline Safe Republican while calling Washington only Likely Democratic shows some inconsistancies in his rankings (I’d move Burr to Likely Republican for now, pending announcements).
I accept that North Carolina is still more Republican than not (Obama’s victory in the state notwithstanding), but it’s also a state that tends to throw out its incumbent senators easily.