Quinnipiac (1/14-19, registered voters):
Alex Sink (D): 15
Kendrick Meek (D): 13
Ron Klein (D): 9
Allen Boyd (D): 8
Dan Gelber (D): 1
Don’t know: 54
(MoE: ±4.7%)Bill McCollum (R): 22
Connie Mack IV (R): 21
Vern Buchanan (R): 10
Marco Rubio (R): 6
Allan Bense (R): 2
Don’t know: 39
(MoE: ±4.3%)
If the primary elections for the Florida senate race were held today, “Don’t know” would sweep both nominations in a landslide. At this point, this is a name recognition test, and Floridians seem to have no idea who these candidates are. At any rate, there seems to be something of a hierarchy here: statewide officials (Sink, McCollum) fare best, then U.S. Representatives, with state legislative leaders down in no man’s land.
On the Dem side, Kendrick Meek has the edge among current candidates. But assuming that he comes in with fairly high name rec from being in the state’s largest media market, and that he’s probably already consolidated the state’s African-American vote, he may not have as much room to grow as the other candidates.
Unfortunately, this poll has a major wrinkle; it was in the field when Alex Sink announced that she wasn’t going to be a Senate candidate, so presumably some respondents were operating under the assumption that Sink was a likely candidate while others knew that she wouldn’t be. In fact, the only head-to-head Quinnipiac tried out involved Sink as the Dem nominee (McCollum 36, Sink 35, with 29 don’t know). Here’s hoping they try again soon with some other permutations.
followed closely by OH and MO in that order. I’m saying this because Obama’s win in FL was primarily driven by his money advantage in an otherwise quitessentially purple state with a non-dormant black vote. Numberswise, FL is very essential to Dem electoral vote and House prospects because of population growth, but not really for the Senate. Nonetheless, I think the Democrats would be well advised to recruit the strongest and best nominee to take this seat and right now, though it’s very early, the current crop don’t appear very promising.
I actually think Alex Sink would not have been as strong in the long run and being a Dem woman, her chances would be harder (see my comment a while back about prospects of female dem office seekers). As per lack of statewide name recognition, at this stage this is not an insurmountable problem (when Lawton Chiles ran for Gov, nobody knew him until the trekked the whole state). Both Allen Boyd and Kendrick Meek suffer from a mirror image problem; their districts are not as representative of the state as a whole nor are they representative of electable Dems. Boyd is too conservative and if he wins, he will suffer defections on the left; Meek, while ambitious, is too liberal and will suffer defections on the right. They may also have problem raising money, especially Boyd, who would have to do a complete 180 on issues to get money from Dem fundraising groups. With a 59 seat advantage sans the FL seat, he would not be considered essential to Democrat’s chances. Is there a younger Bill Nelson type from the I-4 corridor or Palm Beach area?
On the GOP side, it may come down to McCollum v Mack (hard right vs. center-right). I would put my money on Mack but since he hasn’t run statewide before, we don’t know how he will do. McCollum is too right wing for post-2008 FL (heck he was too right wing for pre-2008 post-1994 FL too). However, he’s been wanting to get back to Washington on a larger scale than representing his old Orlando seat, which is now held by Democrat Alan Grayson. Mack won’t have problem raising money and with a moderate and popular Crist running for relection in 2010, both McCollum and Mack would benefit though Mack is probably closer to Crist than McCollum is. As per Rubio, his chances of winning the nomination improve without McCollum or Mack running.
Mack’s father was a US Senator. His grandfather was manager and owner of the A’s and his great grandfather was manager and owner of the A’s for 50 years and a Hall of Famer. There is a lot of name recognition for him. McCollum, otoh, was tied up with the Republican persecution of Bill Clinton and was a right wing fool for decades.
Meek’s mother was the long time congress woman from her district.
Both Mack and Meek benefit from a familiar name, Mack nore so. That’s why he’s in the 20s already. Mack’s wife, Mary Bono Mack, is also a US House member (California) and the widow of Sonny. Connie represented the wealthy Naples area; Mary represents Palm Springs. That’s a fund-raising edge, for sure. A Mack nomination could result in his wife ditching her seat to campaign full time for her husband. And that is a competitive seat.
Mack and McCollum can be beat with a solid candidate (not Meek). Rubio is the only name on their side that scares me, and as the poll shows he will have a lot of work to do to win a republican primary.
Klein is still my #1 choice after Sink who apparently isn’t going to run.
seem likely the likely ones right now. with the obscene FL gerrymanders and obscene underrepresentation (40 state senators for a state the size of FL?!), we have very few legislators to choose from.
meek is an interesting case. i do hold it against him that his mother gave him her seat. i think dynastism makes sense in some cases (evan bayh, jim matheson, bob casey) namely when a seat is in a reublican leaning district and the residual good will left by the elder helps the younger democrat win. but meek’s was an ugly handoff – like they thought it was a family possession to be passed on to the younger, and there was never any danger that this seat wouldn’t be democratic.
nonetheless, he looks like an impressive candidate. contrary to the poster above, meek has been so centrist that it has annoyed left-wing posters here and elsewhere because his district is so left-wing. he has recruited some top organizing talent from the Obama team and he has a law-enforcement background – often critical for democrats running in red or purple places. and it’s clear that he will run on an obama-style campaign. not bending over backwards to please the base and running very seriously and very early to win the general election.
klein looks very impressive and represents a true swing district, but that district does then open up and it could be hard to protect.
is there anybody we should be looking for?
Hell, the high percentage of don’t knows mostly show that any candidate can win if they can get enough dedicated support.
I figure Boyd doesn’t really have a way out of a competitive primary unless the vote is split amongst three other candidates. He can get the north Florida conservative vote, but he’s got no real way to appeal to southern Florida (especially after dicking around on social security) and the rapidly blueing parts of central Florida don’t seem likely to go for a 1980s Florida Democrat.
I’m interested to see where Meek draws his support from. If it’s being the black candidate, then that’s a base he can build upon. If it’s for being a bit DLC whilst still young and black, he has problems. He’ll find it difficult to consolidate the black vote without annoying the other end of his coalition. It all depends how loyal opinion-leaders in the black community will be towards his candidacy.
To me Klein and Gelber are the interesting ones. They have a base in the Miami area, can probably appeal in central Florida and are more likely to have a decent amount of activist appeal. If one of them can monopolise the territory of the other first, he’s liable to get the nomination.
That said, I wouldn’t count out a surprise Alan Grayson run. The man has ambition, he tends to speak his mind, he has fundraising chops and sizeable cash reserves and he’s happy to run uphill campaigns. I couldn’t see him winning a majority primary victory, but if the other candidates are lacklustre and he gets in relatively promptly, I could see him winning in a low-turnout primary with a plurality.
As for the Republicans, I don’t know. Rubio can probably get the Cuban vote, and if he gets Jeb’s networt he could be quite formidable, but I don’t know what his ceiling is. Mack’s certainly viable as a dynasty candidate, but I don’t know what he could really run on. Allan Bense seems like the Republican equivalent of Gelber, but if he declined to primary Harris in the 2006 Senate race, he’s either a very smart political observer or far too cowardly to get in to the race.
I hadn’t heard any news about Buchanan running, but there’s enough dirt on the man that he’d have to face a volley of negative ads. Plus the NRCC wouldn’t want an open seat in FL-13. Finally, I can’t see McCollum making a go of it based on these numbers. Let’s be honest, he’s a dickhead with a high profile and several statewide primary losses to his name. If he’s at 22% now, his ceiling is probably below 40%, and since most of these candidates won’t run, he’s not liable to win it.
if he can be convinced to run.