Charlie Cook, a longtime friend of the Swing State Project, picks up this very interesting piece of chatter:
A fellow who oversees lobbying in all 50 states for a major corporation recently told me about a certain Republican U.S. senator up for re-election in 2010, someone generally regarded as fairly conservative who might face a serious challenge from a very conservative fellow Republican. The incumbent has not been tainted by scandal, has never embarrassed himself by making a major mistake, is highly regarded in Washington, and is considered a very effective senator.
Who might we be talking about here? The only GOP Senators discussed as potential recipients of a serious primary challenge thus far have been Arlen Specter and David Vitter, and Cook is clearly not talking about them here (indeed, he explicitly rules Specter out in the next paragraph). Any guesses?
Murkowski…..Palin is going to challenge her
becuase Lisa Murkowski is not considered fairly conserviative, and she was appointed in scandal, and is not a very effective senator. But it could also Richard Shelby, or Rob Bennett in Utah. Johnny Isakson is probably the most likely though, Sonny Perdue doesn’t want to ride off into the sunset.
Well, I guess that rules out Burr…
Well that rules out Burr, Vitter, Bunning, Coburn, DeMint, and Thune.
He also says the person is a “he”, so that rules out Murkowski and isn’t Arlen Specter.
Has to be one of the following: Shelby (AL), McCain (AZ), Isakson (GA), Grassley (IA), Gregg (NH) or Bennett (UT). I’m not even going to try to guess.
This would be Bunning. GOP is terrified of losing this seat.
Could it be Bob Smith challenging Judd Gregg? I know Smith (last I checked, anyway) lives in Florida now, but perhaps hed come back home and challenge Gregg.
Maybe these are possibilities: Palin against Murkowski, Rep. Steve King against Grassley, Roy Moore against Shelby, Bill Sali against Mike Crapo…
Charles Grassley would certainly fit everything in Cook’s description.
Steve King would fit the bill as a “very conservative fellow Republican” – and he’s the kind of true-believing nutjob who would try to take out a conservative incumbent like Grassley in a primary.
Let’s just make sure that if it’s in a state we could put in play, that there is a viable Democrat to run.
Gregg’s most likely challenger, Sununu, is more moderate. Scratch that one.
Grassley is old and the religious right has a pretty good sized following in Iowa. Huckabee won the caucuses after all. Steve King would be the winger IMO and he sure is a nut job.
Unlike many of the others, Grassley can easily be labeled as effective. Unlike Specter, he can also be labeled a conservative. It is small town business conservative, though.
Fairly conservative but just moderate enough to piss off some wingnuts.
Not tainted my scandal.
No major mistakes (other than his annoying “Rock the boat, Johnny” ads when he was running for Governor).
Has taken the lead on some issues.
The fact that there was talk of him stepping down to run for Governor may have attracted some potential candidates who may decide to go for it anyways.
Rounds wants in the Senate bad but couldnt run against Johnson because of the stroke.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
McCain, Grassley, Gregg or Isakson seem like the obvious possibilities. McCain seems like the most likely candidate for a primary but does he fit the description? I’m not sure Isakson has been around enough to make him fit too well also. I can’t really imagine someone would take Gregg on in a primary so I’m thinking it may be Grassley.
King vs Grassley?
Draft King!
My first reaction is that it has to be the Club for Growth going after Iowa’s Chuck Grassley.
I remember reading that conservatives don’t like a compromiser like Grassley as ranking member of the powerful Finance Committee.
I don’t know if (or immediately think that) GOP Congresscritter Steve King is the guy who will take on Grassley, but I would imagine that the Club for Growth could find someone.
There’s the conservative wing of the Utah GOP and then there’s the batshit insane wing of the Utah GOP. Bennet (and Orrin Hatch, for that matter) are of the former. So was former Rep. Chris Cannon, successfully primaried out last election.
I don’t think serious challenges are possible to McCain, Grassley, or Gregg.
Isakson is an interesting possibility, one of the congressmen may decide they’d rather leave the powerless GOP minority for a slightly less powerless minority in the Senate.
There is a big civil war within the Iowa GOP and while Grassley hasn’t exactly jumped to the defense of the moderate side he isn’t seen by the conservatives as one of them. More importantly Grassley serious annoyed a lot of Christian conservatives by investigating the tax exempt status of more than a few wingnut churches.
He’s certainly a conservative but no yes man who has had no problem defying his party in the past.
Flake being a far-right anarcho-capitalist wingnut.
Process of elimination:
1. Regarded as fairly conservative, but apparently not sufficiently conservative. This eliminates Specter (not regarded by Rs as even fairly conservative and Cook eliminates him as well) and Bunning, Coburn, DeMint, and Crapo (universally regarded as very conservative). Probably also Burr.
2. Not been tainted by scandal. Definitely not Vitter. Maybe not Murkowski.
3. Highly regarded and considered effective. Lots of fuzziness here, but definitely eliminates Bunning (again).
4. Must be sufficiently vulnerable that someone could mount a “serious challenge.” To my mind, this eliminates Gregg, Grassley, McCain, Shelby, Thune, and Bennett. They all have good approval ratings statewide. Except for Bennett, Democrats would have excellent pick up opportunities if any of theses guys were primaried and each is almost certainly the strongest R candidate. So, I hope it’s one of these guys.
Isakson is the only one left. He’s definitely conservative, but not that conservative for a state like Georgia, so I see room for a serious challenger from the right and there have to be lots of potentially serious Rs in GA who want a promotion. He’s not particularly popular so he would be a tempting target for a challenge.
Redstaters disagree with Cook and think their electoral problems are not being conservative enough. Lots of fun.
http://www.redstate.com/erick/…
Would be my guess of who it is most likely to be.
As soon as I read this post, I thought “Charles Grassley.”
After reading dozens of post, I’m more convinced it’s Charles Grassley. Why? I would be stunned if Charles Cook regarded any of the Southerners elected in 2004 as “highly regarded” or “effective.” They’re basically dolts.
Who in the world ever heard of Johnny Isakson and why would anyone care if someone challenged him? It’s not worth Cook’s time — or certainly not his surprise, which is the tenor of the story.
McCain is not regarded as conservative by Republicans, Shelby has embarrassed himself in regards to his role overseeing intelligence services and is too conservative for the profile, Gregg is more conservative than “fairly conservative” and no one cares about Bennett of Utah because a Republican can’t lose in that state anyway.
In Iowa, though, a Grassley defeat in a primary probably means a Democratic pickup.
I would bet on Charles Grassley.
Shalom,
ZWrite
I’d bet on Isakson. By Georgia right-wing standards, he is not authentically conservative. Plus, there are a lot of GA Congressmen who have been in the house for a little while, and would be itching to move up the ladder. Westmoreland, Gingrey, Deal, and especially Broun come to mind.
My money is on Johnny Isakson getting a challenge in the GOP primary. Isakson has always been a moderate. His consevative credentials was called into question in 2004 by Mac Collins & Hermain Cain, who also ran for the GOP nomination back in 2004. He is conservative on some issues, but still is fairly moderate. I think his challenge will come from someone currently in the State Legislature. But if had to pick a congressman who would challenge him, it would be Westmoreland or Kingston who is also rumored to run for governor in 2010. But one thing for sure, even if he does get a challenge in the primary & goes on to the general election, he will have a strong, credible democratic challenger either Thurbert Baker, Jim Marshall, Jim Butler, or possibly Sanford Bishop, who is rumored to be eyeing a gubernatorial bid in 2010 in addition to the U.S. Senate.
then the challenger is Patrick McHenry. McHenry has been talking about this exact scenario for the last few years. Burr is not doing well in early polling against likely Democrats (Moore and Cooper), so I’m sure Lil Pat is seriously considering a run.
Of course Burr is neither highly regarded or very effective so I’m guessing this isn’t the cannibalism to which Cook is referring.
I heard that Andrew Thomas (the other anti-immigrant wingnut in Maricopa County) will run in the primary. He does have a shot, since that is the one issue most right-wingers hate McCain for.
Given the hard right nature of the Republican Party in Iowa, I am going to pick a dark horse: Grassley
Bennett of Utah. In typical Cook fashion there must be some disappointment side to the rumor and that is that it takes place in a state where we have no bench and Mattherson doesn’t have the balls to risk his now safe house seat to take advantage of a primary bloodied and divided Utah GOP.
Here’s a name no one has discussed: Mike Crapo from Idaho.
He’s very conservative like most people in his state.
I think he’s pretty effective and has a good reputation. The most embarrassing thing about him is probably his last name…