In a widely expected move, GOP Rep. Adam Putnam is bailing:
Rep. Adam Putnam, the third-ranking Republican in the House until he relinquished that post late last year, will give up his House seat to pursue a bid as the next agriculture commissioner of Florida.
His decision to make this run has been the source of much speculation since he gave up his post as chairman of the Republican Conference on election night last fall. Most Floridians view the commissioner’s job as a stepping stone to the governor’s office.
Despite the lack of surprise, this is nonetheless a telling move. Putnam was a rising star in the GOP ranks and is only 34 years old. He likely would have sat in Boehner’s seat some day. Yet he’s choosing to leave the House rather than face the prospect of a lengthy tour in the wilderness.
Remarkably, the prior holder of Putnam’s leadership job – Chair of the House Republican Conference – also just bailed last cycle. (That would be Deborah Pryce.) We also saw the departure of two former NRCC heads (Tom Reynolds and Tom Davis). Can’t say I blame any of them for wanting to jump ship, but it really says something that so many top GOPers are fleeing.
Anyhow, open seat fans, this news is quite interesting. In 2004, George Bush romped in this district, racking up a 58-42 win. But that changed dramatically in 2008, with McCain only narrowly edging Obama 51-48. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts as to why FL-12 jumped thirteen points while the state as a whole moved “only” eight.
In any event, Tim Sahd over at the Hotline takes a look at who some of the candidates might be:
Of course, for Dems to have a chance, they’ll need to recruit a candidate that matches the GOP-leaning CD. And if moderate ex-state Sen./’98 LG candidate Rick Dantzler runs, they may have that candidate. But it’s been 10 years since he ran (his ticket ran against ex-Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R) and lost, 55-45%), so the value of his name ID in this race is questionable.
The Lakeland Ledger also reports that state Rep. Seth McKeel (R) — a close friend of Putnam’s — had been considered the most likely candidate to run, but the birth of his child has has him leaning toward staying in the legislature. Other GOPers that are mentioned include state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) and state Rep. Dennis Ross (R).
This is probably the most compelling red seat to open up so far. Looking forward to a bunch more of these!
I think it’s the economy, the increase in the Hispanic vote (particularly Puerto Ricans), and a boost in the African American turnout. We also came very close (within a few %) to picking up 2 county commission races, which would have given Dems a majority, and a state legislature race (Hagenmaier) when our candidates were heavily outspent.
The county has somewhat urban areas in Lakeland and poor rural areas in the northern and eastern parts of the district. There must be a reason Republicans added suburban Hillsborough County to the district in 2002 to make it more Republican, trends seem to be favoring Democrats more recently in the rest of the district.
I would actually like to see Polk County Commissioner Jean Reed run. She’s currently the only Democrat on the Commission and besides the legislative seats, it would give a candidate the most publicity in the county which makes up the majority of the district.
Ag. Commissioner isn’t even a very powerful post in Florida.
Ag commish is a good place for Putnam to boost his statewide name rec while avoiding the revenue crisis likely to dominate Florida politics over the next few years. CFO and Insurance Commish are going to be lightning rod positions.
Hard to say how things will break over the next 5 years, but looks like both Putnam and Sink are positioning for the post-Crist era.
Besides, Putnam’s luster was tarnished as his mentors fell. The House GOP caucus is moving towards a harder line and more confrontational approach than fits Putnam’s style. Newer rising stars eclipsed his.
The earlier post is a good suggestion. For a Democrat to win, having a good base in Polk is a nice start. A Democrat who has won county-wide should be seriously considered.
And the post makes a very cogent point on the Hispanic numbers. The area saw a big jump in Hispanic registered voters from 200 to 2008, largely from PR and S. America. In other words, non-Cuban Hispanics, which accounts for a big chunk of the uptick in Dem numbers within Polk county proper.
As for the presidential numbers, the western and northwestern parts of the district were one areas the Obama GOTV machine micro-targeted. Their operation was incredibly precise and energetic. They contacted folks three times weekly at a minimum until they cast their early votes.
Found precincts around Lakeland and I4 where they were able to get 90 percent of reg Dems out to vote. Massive effort produced an enormous number of early Obama votes.
On top of this, the GOP GOTV effort was nearly non-existent this cycle. In 2000 and 2004 they concentrated their operation along I4 and spillover areas. Outside of late robocalling (lame and poorly timed with early voting), they sat on their hands in 2008, not even working the megachurches.
Another factor is in play here. Both McCain and Crist are Republicans who do not inspire fervor among their conservative base, whether religious right or libertarian or pro-business. Both are press release kinds of guy who do not put much stock in boots on the ground. Hard to run a good GOTV operation when your foot soldiers don’t turn out themselves.
For starters this district is trending our way and even if republicans hold it in 2010 they will have a weak freshman going into 2012 redistricting. That might make it necessary for republicans to strengthen the district for their guy, making surrounding districts more Dem friendly.
Never been a huge fan of Putnam and am not shedding any tears to see him go. Im glad hes stopped climbing the GOP House ranks. Even more happy to see my favoirte Representive from my state doing so instead :).
You have the name recognition and almost beat Putnam last year. And you are right on the issues!
It’s you turn to serve this country in government!
TIM CUNHA is a graduate of Rutgers University and Georgetown University Law Center. He has extensive experience in forming and managing entrepreneurial companies in diverse fields. His business career has equipped him to understand and appreciate both the perils and potential of small business, and the constant struggle “Main Street” has competing with the special interests of “Wall Street.” He also has experience practicing law, teaching college, and conducting bio-science research. Tim and his wife Johanna, a former social worker, live in Ocala and are members of the Blessed Trinity Catholic Church. They have two sons. Tim and Johanna continue to be avid hikers and campers, enjoying most outdoor activities.
Here is Doug Tudor’s short Bio:
DOUG TUDOR is a retired Navy Master Chief Petty Officer, and was the 2008 Democratic nominee for the U.S. House in FL-12. During his active duty, Doug served as the Senior Administrative Assistant to three Commanders, U.S. Central Command – General Tommy Franks, General John Abizaid, and Admiral William Fallon – as they planned and prosecuted Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM. He has deployed into the combat zones of Iraq and Afghanistan over 30 times each. He and his wife, Paula, live in Riverview with their children.
The youngest Florida House Republican is Adam Putnam, born 7/31/1974. He’s leaving. Next his Tom Rooney who was just elected in November (born 11/21/1970). Finally there is Connie Mack who is also leaving the House (born 8/12/67). That’s two leaving, all among the youngest group.
Meanwhile, Bill Young (12/16/1930), Cliff Stearns (4/16/1941), John Mica (1/27/1943), Ginny Brown-Waite (10/5/1943), and Ander Crenshaw (9/1/1944) who all pre-date the Boomers are literally hanging on for grim life.
Something is depressingly wrong about this picture. It is a picture of slow death and not revival or comeback. Looks good to me.