Lynch makes it official:
New Hampshire Governor John Lynch officially announced this afternoon that Republican J. Bonnie Newman will replace Judd Gregg in the US Senate if Gregg is confirmed as commerce secretary. […]
Newman, 63, who has not previously held elected office, was an assistant commerce secretary under President Reagan and also worked in President George H.W. Bush’s White House. She also worked for Gregg when he was a US representative and supported Lynch for governor. […]
Lynch said Newman will not run in 2010, and will not endorse any candidate in that race in a state turning more Democratic.
While the merits of the Gregg appointment are pretty troubling (after all, we are talking about a dude who, in the 1990s, voted to abolish the same Department that he is now going to run), this isn’t a bad deal for us. Newman couldn’t possibly be more conservative than Gregg, and she’s promising not to even make an endorsement for her successor.
Paul Hodes has an excellent shot at this next year.
UPDATE: With Gregg exiting the Senate, SSP has moved our rating of this race from “Lean Republican” to “Tossup“. With a competent campaign, though, Hodes should be able to earn himself an edge.
Sr. is a rock-solid social conservative who will probably insist the Republican nominee be a pro-life populist like Jen Horn so there goes the woman’s vote.
It’s the more Democratic of the two, as I understand.
That’s an interesting detail. So this is a real placeholder figure who won’t even try to endorse/campaign for her R-candidate successor in 2010.
Look, when has the Commerce Department been particularly useful for anything? In the past, the Director awas mostly a fundraiser for the president. Even if this replacement does decide to run, she may not survive the primary and even if she did, Hodes will kick her ass. I always thought Gregg was vulnerable, but the new situation gives us an edge.
From the Senate stand point this is all good–for two years we get a more moderate vote and then an open seat where we should be the favorite. If Gregg stayed, I think his chances of winning were roughly 2-1; now I’d say Hodes is roughly a 2-1 favorite and this seat becomes our number 1 takeover prospect.
Gregg at Commerce seems OK. First, Commerce is a relatively minor cabinet position. Second, I like the bipartisan cover it provides to have a fiscal conservative pimping Obama’s economic program. Hopefully any discretionary damage he can do is limited.
I don’t quite get all the hand-wringing about this decision. To me the best comparison is the Maine Senate seat in 2008…
Does anyone doubt that if Collins would have ridden off into the sunset and left behind an open-seat that Tom Allen would be a US Senator today? It’s not a perfect comparison, but I think it’s pretty close.
On the purely political merits, this selection turned this seat into a lean GOP to a toss-up, and maybe even a lean Dem seat once the dust settles and we see who emerges on the GOP side.
Sure, it’d be better if Hodes could be the appointee, but barring that I think this is great for Dem prospects in 2010.
over the past few years, there has been a substantial rise in the number of influential jewish politicians (with the vast, vast, majority being democrats). I think this is an interesting phenomenon, and as a Jew, has piqued my interest.
For example,
– Gov. Markell (D-Del.)
– Sen. Bennet (D-Co.)
– Rep. Grayson (D-Fl.)
– Rep. Hodes (D- Nh)
– Rep. Cantor (R-Va.) Whip
The list really goes on and it is very interesting. Thoughts?
THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT SHOULD BE ABOLISHED
First of all, it’s a hodgepodge of agencies that don’t have much to do with each other like the weather service and the census bureau.
Second of all, the department devotes an awful lot of taxpayer money helping wealthy executives and big businesses. They don’t need government’s help, which should be focused on those who need it.
Third of all, that lofty mission statement that one poster mentioned is also achieved by other Cabinet departments. There is a tremendous amount of duplication.
The essential parts of the Commerce Department should be transferred to other departments. If it’s in our national security interest to help the commerce of big business, those functions can also be absorbed by other departments (and actually they are so there’s more duplication).
The Commerce Department has traditionally been run by super-duper fundraisers like Baldridge for Reagan, Ron Brown for Clinton, Evans for Bush Jr., Mosbacher for Bush Sr. I have seen no evidence that these secretaries and their departments have been focused on people who need the government’s help.
Big businesses need to pay their own way so taxpayer resources can be more focused.
Shalom,
ZWrite
Florida – Rep. Meek, Gelber
Kentucky – Lt. Gov. Mongiardo
Missouri – Sec of State Carnahan
Ohio – Rep. Ryan (?), Lt. Gov. Fisher (?)
Kansas – Gov. Sebelius (?)
Pennsylvania – Rep. Schwartz (?)
New Hampshire – Rep. Hodes
North Carolina – Cooper (?)
Texas – White (?)
If we can push a few more of these big name undecides we’re in great shape. So far the only apparent letdown in recruiting is Florida.