Arlen Specter has his first confirmed challenger for 2010, but it’s not Allyson Schwartz or Patrick Murphy (the two names you usually see associated with this race): it’s Joe Torsella. He hasn’t held elective office before, but he’s a local mover and shaker in Philadelphia: he was, until very recently, CEO of the National Constitution Center, and before that, Ed Rendell’s deputy mayor.
Torsella’s interest in the Senate seat has always struck me as being a little above his pay grade (his only run for office was the primary for the open seat in PA-13 in 2004, which he lost to Schwartz; he was also reportedly wooed for the PA-06 candidacy in 2008). He does have one huge asset in his corner, though: Governor Ed Rendell. With Rendell having given no indication of interest in the Senate, Torsella is basically running as a Rendell proxy, and should have access to all the levers of Rendell’s machinery. Time will tell whether that will be enough to overcome the better-known Schwartz (and/or Murphy) in the primary, though.
Knocking off a relatively popular incumbent in an uncertain political environment will require a special set of circumstances that I’m not sure Torsella has. I think even with a top tier challenger like Schwartz or Murphy we will have a difficult time winning this one. This may well be the Susan Collins of this cycle.
You’re right that Rendell’s support is a big deal. Rendell goes way back with Specter, and as far as I know has never campaigned against him. He is supposedly willing to do so now. That means something.
The DSCC should spend $1 million on a kickass beach house in Florida, and tell Arlen Specter “it’s all yours if you retire”. That’s how we win Pennsylvania for $1M, otherwise it will cost at least $10M.
Joe who?
supporting this guy will campaign against Schwart & Murphy. Say this newbie loses the primary to either Schwart & Murphy.
Would that give Rendall the excuse not to have to actively support the winner against Specter in the general?
And thus not have to campaign against his old buddy Arlan?
But the Senate cloture passed with 61 votes for the stimulus. As expected Snowe, Collins and Specter were the three to go along with us on this. Hopefully the House will add back some of the funding cut by the Senate. Even if not it’s still a very good bill.
sorry…can’t get out of the primary here
He’s a good guy. But he should be prepared to be beaten by Allyson Schwartz for a second time in a Democratic primary. Embarrassing. Pennsylvania needs to have its first female senator. I’ll be voting for Schwartz. I don’t think the Rendell machine will be able to steamroll this primary like it did with Casey in 2006.
NOT MEANT TO BE IN CAPS.
I still think Schwartz would be a more formidable and better candidate. And if she gets in I expect her to beat Torsella if he’s dumb enough to stay in the primary and not run for her seat instead. This is assuming of course that Murphy does not run.
But if Schwartz sticks with Congress (which I think is likely) then Torsella would be a perfectly fine candidate. He was a Rhodes Scholar, did some impressive stuff with Ed Rendell before he was even thirty (and I’m not generally a Rendell fan) and built the Constitution Center into a pretty big organization. That requires a lot of fundraising skill and has gotten him a lot of experience working with the power players in PA and nationally (Bill Clinton is the chair of the board, other potential surrogates like Anthony Zinni sit on the board). I would not underestimate him at all. He’s brilliant, savvy, well connected and hard working. Holding elected office isn’t the only way to the Senate, look how well it worked for Joe Hoeffel.
So if Schwartz and Murphy stay out, I’m be backing Torsella enthusiastically.
Schwartz isn’t running:
Rep. Allyson Schwartz, who defeated Torsella in a 2004 Democratic primary for the 13th congressional district, will stay out of the race, according to three sources close to the situation. Torsella may still face a primary challenge but given his ties to Rendell it’s hard to imagine anyone knocking him off. Torsella is a serious candidate and, given Pennsylvania’s demographics, this race will be close.
Don’t know who he’s hearing this from, but sounds pretty firm. And Cillizza is usually pretty cautious in projecting this kinda stuff.
He says he has THREE sources on this one. And it keeps with the logic that others pointed out in this thread that Torsella would just run for PA-13 if Schwartz were running for the Senate.
And CC has yet to be proven wrong on Murphy anyway…