I was seriously thinking of hiding the receiver when the switch broke ’cause it’s old. They’re saying things that I can hardly believe — they really think we’re getting out of control.
83 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
The guy is a long-time aide to Harry Reid, so that should be a message that it’s time for Burris to go.
LA-Sen: Will Daniels Storm the competition? Will Vitter’s diaper fetish be restored to the front burner of political consciousness? Will a porn star be elected to the Senate?
IL-Sen: The soap opera continues…
1. NY-20 Are we going to lose it to the Republicans?
2. IL Senate – Burris vs the Democrats
3. AZ gov – it is now in Republican hands
4. CO Senate – I do not feel comfortable about it.
5. NY Senate – The impossible sometimes happens.
6. NJ gov – concerned
7. CT Senate – We need to start asking Chris Dodd some tough questions
Can I use a lifeline?
I can just about finish up breaking down Presidential votes by Michigan State House District, which I mentioned here a month or two ago and a few people expressed interest in. There are still a few counties where precinct data has not been published, but I should be able to find them soon.
Is there a way to find out the Demographics of a certain state legislative district? (Race, income, etc.) Does the census have someway to do that?
WA-08
Some of the California districts. Ken Calvert, Dan Lungren in particular. And does Jerry Lewis ever get indicted?
Nothing really left in the mountain west. Except possibly Denny Rehberg. Is there any possibility that MT Dems try to pull a Jon Porter and defeat Tester’s likely opponent before he can run in 2012? Unfortunately, I kind of doubt it. And other than MT-AL, it’s all defense in the West.
Don Young. Does he get indicted? Can we pick up the seat in a special election if he does?
MN-03, IA-04, NE-02 are probably off the table for now. MN-03 is the best chance of those three. And does Boswell retire so we can have an incumbent going against Latham in the 2012 cycle?
A special election in IL-Sen lets Mark Kirk run without giving up his seat. Bummer. I was looking forward to the open seat in 2010.
Otherwise, we’re at our upper limit in TN, KY, IN, IL, OH, I think. There’s McCotter in MI and Gerlach and Dent in PA. The seats of Biggert, LoBiondo, and Chris Smith are only available if they’re open, I think — or is this Jeff Van Drew character gearing up to go for LoBiondo regardless?
I don’t know anything about Manzullo or his district. Tiberi is doable on paper, but given how much trouble we had with OH-15, I’m kindof chastened. He’ll be on the wrong side of every economic vote this Congress, though, and that’s something.
I don’t believe Shelley Moore Capito can be beaten anymore. Which is too bad, because like Rehberg, this would be the cycle to do it.
Does anyone know anything about the third party candidate who took 8% in NJ-07, the Stender-Lance race? If those votes all came out of Stender’s hide, the district could be winnable. In general though, I’m not sanguine about beating either Lance or Chris Lee in NY-26.
I assume we wait until 2012 to really go for either King or McHugh. It would be so much cheaper that way.
And check it out, there’s no opportunties to be on offense in New England! Thanks everybody.
I think we’re pretty much at our ceiling in VA, NC, SC, GA, AL, and MS. There’s Mike Rogers in AL-03 I guess. 54% against Josh Seagall ain’t too impressive.
And that leaves LA-06, LA-04, and some FL seats hopefully; maybe the open seat of Vern Buchanan? And does Tom Rooney get a free re-elect?
All in all, that’s not a great situation for offense, considering only the seats that were already on the board in the last two cycles. Hopefully retirements open up some territory. But it looks like the folks who really wanted to retire mostly did so last cycle.
On the other hand, the advantage we’ll have this cycle that we didn’t in 06 or 08 is actually having passed a lot of legislation. In the 110th only a few big bills went through the House, and almost no good ones made it through the Senate and the White House. This time around, we can cut an ad that runs something like: “Shelley Moore Capito voted for the Wall St bailout, but against the Recovery Act for Main Street America. Against relief for homeowners. Against health care reform. Against the new energy plan. Against the rescue of the auto and steel industries. Against rules limiting runaway CEO pay on Wall St. Against tough new rules for the banks that crashed the economy. Shelley Moore Capito has voted against all the important reforms of the last two years. Shelley Moore Capito — who is she working for?” That’s terrible ad copy, but the point is that after two years of a legislatively productive Congress, all these “moderate” Reps are going to have are a bunch of no votes. That will give us something to run on that we’ve never had on them before.
Some thoughts on these:
CT-Sen: I think Dodd is in real trouble; the favorable mortgages that he got just don’t sit well with those who are seeing their property values decline by 50% or more. Simmons is well to the right, but he may become viable. Time for Dodd to retire.
NY-Sen: Pataki is a real upgrade for the GOP if he were to run. True, his approval ratings were slightly negative when he left office, but Gillibrand had better not have any more “guns under the bed moments.”
CA-Gov: Could Meg Whitman actually win this? The Democratic field is uninspiring. Welcome to CEO governance. Yuk.
NJ-Gov: Corzine is done. His Wall Street roots have become too much of a liability in this economic climate.
VA-Gov: I’m really afraid McAuliffe will buy his way to a primary victory, handing the governor’s mansion to Bob McDonnell. That would really turn back the clock on all the gains made by Democrats in Virginia.
Idle speculation:
if Corzine were to be tapped for Commerce Sec, then I assume Richard Codey replaces him as acting governor once again.
That would replace an extremely unpopular guy with one who isn’t. And easier to elect than Corzine.
From a Dem stand point, Obama could actually be helping the downticket with that appointment, as opposed to potentially hurting a downticket race
Everything California: Governor, Senate, House (CA-03, CA-04, CA-24, CA-44, CA-50), State Senate, State Assembly, and whatever ballot measures are up from the May special this year to November 2010.
And could we win in the 15th Senate district? Though that district is not up until 2012, with a new configuration, Sen. Abel Maldonado (R) is facing a recall attempt from angry conservatives because of his switch to be the deciding vote on the budget after extracting concessions from the Democrats that to get him to vote for the budget, which included some tax increases, he got some of what he wanted, including some ballot measures: open primaries, eliminating a 12-cent gas take hike for a slight income tax hike, and banning legislative raises in years when the state is in deficit.
http://www.sacbee.com/politics…
To the angry conservatives that want to recall Maldonado, I say good luck! Democrats have a 41%-35% registration advantage ( http://www.sos.ca.gov/election… ) and Obama won this district 59-39. ( http://spreadsheets.google.com… )
http://recallmaldonado.com/
Thanks to whoever got the 2008 election data for Delaware county, Pennsylvania down to the PRECINCT level. I learned that I vote in one of the most Republican precincts in the county. No wonder my precinct was a “low priority” in the canvassing packets. Final score – McCain 55%, Obama 45%. Prediction: Obama wins my precinct in 2012. This also explains why the poll-workers always look at me cock-eyed as they direct me to a booth with the Democratic primary ballot.
I think you underestimate Michigan. The economy is in tatters. Two GOP incumbents lost last cycle. Current GOP Congressmen aren’t supporting stimulus.
The automaker bailout is problematic, as is Gov Granholm’s low approval ratings, but she is term limited and so there will be a new face at the top. Bigger problem may be the bench.
So yes, McCotter is a top target in MI 11.
Mike Rogers in MI08 barely won an open seat, then has faced so so opposition. Verg Bernero the Lansing Mayor featured at OL and 538 for his defense of Main St could be a good candidate. Or maybe Gretchen Whitmer from East Lansing, though she is not term limited as a state sen.
MI 03 is trending away from far right as its Hispanic pop increases. Vern Ehlers is old and kooky.
MI 06 elected anti apartheid Dem Howard Wolpe to Congress for years. He was replaced by supposed GOP moderate Fred Upton who has become less and less moderate as time goes by. Kalamazoo and the St Joe/Benton Harbor area have been hit by downsizing and plant closings. Weak bench though.
AZ-SEN: People who were foaming at the mouth at taking out McCain in ’10 suddenly let up after Obama decided that he was his favorite Republican (yeah, how’s that working out for you, O-man?). I so still think we have a shot here, but am hardly under the delusion that it’s going to be easy. There’s some buzz about retired Gen. John Adams, who might be a good choice actually. The guy who McCain creamed in ’04 John Starky is running again, but I don’t think he’s anything worth paying attention to. The names to watch are probably Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon and wealthy, term-limited State Senator Ken Cheuvront (who was also once upon a time the State House minority leader), and term-limited State House Minority Leader David Lujan, whose currently planning to run for Attorney General, but he might be pushed out of that race by Napolitano’s former COS (and major Goddard ally) Dennis Burke.
AZ-GOV: I’ve heard a few mixed signals, but it’s probably safe to guess that AG Terry Goddard will run for the Democrats, making this a major pick-back-up opportunity. Gov. Little-Miss-Sarah-Palin-Wannabee has taken it upon herself to gut educational funding with the help of the State House, and seeing as protecting and expanding education was like the #1 reason that Janet was so popular, I’m cautiously optimistic that she’ll crash and burn, especially against a well-known statewide figure like Goddard. If he does end up passing, consult the above list plus possibly Rep. Giffords as potential candidates.
AZ-01,05,08: Should be pretty safe. All three reps are good fits for their districts. Mitchell seems to be struggling the most so far, but his district is D-trending in ’08 displaced AZ-08 as the closest divided house district at the presidential level. Watch to see if someone worth their chops takes on Kirkpatrick and the wildcard if popular (but older than God) Republican Tucson mayor Bob Walkup takes on Giffords, but they’re all looking pretty good. AZ probably won’t be that exciting at the house level until 2012.
me- who r out top guys? allen turned it down and i doubt michaud will run. fmr ag rowe is in and im not hearin ne big r names so im leaning towards this is gonna stay in our column
ri- dave cicilline is gonna b the first out gay man elected governor
ny- im in the camp that patersons not gonna run, leavin it open for cuomo. question is, will rudy get in or king switch to the gov race? and what bout mchugh, even w his seniority in the house he cant like the minority too much, hes up state, reasonably moderate… would he stand a chance?
pa- w everyone on our side really concentrating on specter… can we count on some state house candidate to beat gerlach or ag corbett? im not hearin many names floated around…
fl- if and when christ jumps into the sen race, sink will declare and i think so will buchanan. hell have quite the primary though cuz im pretty sure every gop-er who was lookin at the sen race will avert their gaze that way
al- i honestly have no clue what will happen if sparks gets in the race. i have no ungodly clue who would win the primary and if theyd bloody themselves too much. i had high hopes on this, but now im not so sure
il- pretty sure quinn is gonna run for his own term, but if burris dosent get through this, the gop isnt gonna have as hot a candidate to run against.
mi- if jenny g dosent end up in the cabinet, would cherry really win the primary? ill b the first to admit i dont know much bout inter michigan politics, but i think hoekstra is completely beatable
mn- will pawlenty risk runnin for a third term he most certaintly will loose? dayton didnt really leave the senate w the best approval ratings, but hes deff got the most name recognition in the field and i think he stands a pretty good chance
ok- i think fallin will b the repub nominee and im fairly certain edmundson will beat askins. i think this is gonna b a race to watch
ks- its brownbacks, no matter what happens w sebelius/parkinson
sd- our only real hope is madam herseth-sandlin. im still ambivalent bout the decision, cuz i hate to loose her seat, but hes deff someone whos got a future in the party and i think she could do good for the state
nm- denish v wilson ne one?
az- im not too hopeful for us here… brewer is deff gonna tack to the center and a centrist rep does work in phoenix
nv- barbara buckley and catherine cortez-matso both seem like wicked good candidates, and either of them could easially take out gibbons, the onyl question is will there be a primary or will one bow out for the other
ca- im still pullin for my man gavin. garamendi i have heard nothing notable of and sanchez isnt exactly the most progressive person ive ever seen. and in a state that gave the pres something like 62% and which is deeply regretting what happened w prop 8, newsom v. whitman will b a walk in the park
hi- repubs only got lt gov aiona, its just a question of who will he face. abercrombies been patiently waitin his turn to move up the ladder, but hes as old as hawaii, hirono lost the gov race already, case is a laughing stock. my bet is on hanabusa or hannemann, leaning towards hanabusa
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/nyregion/21paterson.html?_r=1&hp
OK, at first I thought Paterson was merely incompetent, during his “search” for his pick
Then, I thought he was a jerk by the manner he de-selected Kennedy.
Next, I thought he was a moron by his selection causing us to likely lose a House seat.
Finally, now just I think he’s an asshole. Plus all the above.
I have to say it’s refreshing to have someone like Robert Gibbs as press secretary. I still love how he tore the Mannity a new one after one of the debates. However, this time Gibbs took on that Santelli guy from CNBC:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
I love this guy!
http://www.centerforpolitics.o…
Larry Sabato had this chart on his website. It’s a comparison between today’s Democratic majority and the one we had pre-1994 by region. Our majorities today are very similar in numbers to 1993, but very different by region. Basically we traded southern and midwestern seats for northeastern and western seats.
Summary:
Northeast: House +20 seats, Senate +2 seats
West: House +8 seats, Senate +5 seats
Midwest: House -6 seats, Senate No Change
South: House
23 seats, Senate8 seats