The rumor mill is churning out a now-famous name:
One of the more interesting rumors rattling around in Democratic circles is that Lilly Ledbetter might run for AL-03 against Republican incumbent Mike Rogers in 2010. Interesting to think about, unlikely to happen, one reason being that she is over 70 years old. While several have heard the rumor, no one could tell the Parlor where it might have started.
Democrat Josh Segall challenged Rogers in 2008 and is said to be strongly considering another run. Another name in the mix on the Democratic side could be Calhoun County Commissioner Robert Downing.
I agree that Ledbetter is probably past the age where most people would consider making a first run for office, but it’s an interesting thought nonetheless. Alabama’s third CD was originally drawn to help elect a Democrat, so this district is potentially fertile territory. In 2002, Republican Mike Rogers won by just 50-48 when the seat was open. And last year, the unheralded and outspent Josh Segall held Rogers to a relatively meager 53-47 win.
So, Ledbetter or no, this could be a sleeper seat worth watching.
(Hat-tip: alpolitics)
I know we hold the Alabama House and Senate wide margins, there must be a youngish white Democrat who could beat Rogers, or even an African American, if this district would ever elect one. They would have to be conservative, though. Not Bobby Bright Conservative, but Charlie Melancon, John Barrow, or Heath Shuler type. But I would just be cautious, because the recent success that we have been having in southern conservative districts is probably short lived, and when the national mood turns sour against Democrats, we’re likely to lose a lot of these districts unless the incumbents really establish themselves Gene Taylor style.
He ran a fairly progressive campaign in AL-03, and seemed to gradually increase his support, unlike say Darcy Burner in WA-08, whom I think would’ve been a fantastic Rep but declined in support as election day neared, from both her initial bid and even polling earlier in 2008.
Ledbetter is an interesting name to throw out there, but I think that Democrats have an experienced and relatively popular candidate to throw out there.
This is especially true for Segall if Ron Sparks is at the top of the ticket for Governor. Jus’ saying.
Segall was a very strong candidate and I was one of his biggest supporters. No word as to if he will make a second go. I’m going to say that it is very unlikely that Segall goes for it again now. I haven’t discussed this with him, but it’s just a hunch based on political intuition. As a young candidate a second loss in the same seat would really put a stigma on his future political career.
Here are my thoughts. Ledbetter would have 100 percent name recognition. She could serve one or two terms then Segall could run to replace her.
This has turned into more than a rumor that Ledbetter will run. This is turning into some serious talk that this is a great idea.
The post election-night numbers with everything all counted shows Segall losing 54%-46%.
Segall definitely ran an above average, if not solid, race. However, his lack of experience was certainly a sticking point with lots of East Alabama voters. Rogers was able to avoid the issues, like his support for job-killing free trade agreements like CAFTA, by concentrating on 1) Segall’s liberal ties and 2) Segall’s zero political experience.
It would serve the party well for Robert Downing to challenge Segall in the primary. He is very well-connected and well-liked within the region and has outstanding political skills. I believe he’s in his early 50’s.
I don’t think that Ledbetter is a serious contender.
comparison. Ledbetter is a fine advocate, but that doesn’t translate into wins in tough districts. Give Segall another chance, if the DCCC funds him this time he could have a real shot.
I’m not advocating that we support Ledbetter in a primary against Segall. After various conversations and from what I’ve been reading at Left In Alabama, I think that Segall may run again. If we keep encouraging him I think that will definitely help. I think that I was wrong about my earlier assessment. He is definitely my first choice for AL-03.
I think that Ledbetter should run in AL-04. We are very unlikely to field a better candidate than her up there. This has been a Democratic District in the past and when Aderholt ran in 1996 he narrowly won over Bob Wilson. Before that Tom Bevill represented this district for something like 15 terms.
She might play better in this District anyways on her message about equal pay and equal working conditions. This is traditionally more of a manufacturing district than AL-03.
Segall knows how to run a top notch campaign and did better than Artur Davis did in his first run for Congress. Segall is well versed on the issues and politics and is a great fundraiser and on the stump.
Also, I hope that the DCCC would committ to the 3rd and not try and retain AL-02 and AL-05 after seeing how bad Bobby Bright (especially) and Parker Griffith have been.