Siena College (2/18-19, likely voters):
Scott Murphy (D): 34
Jim Tedisco (R): 46
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Here is the first public poll of the special election in NY-20 to replace Kirsten Gillibrand; compared with the Tedisco internal released a few weeks ago (which had Tedisco up 50-29), it shows Scott Murphy in a better position, although still in a pretty deep hole.
The good news is that Murphy, who has never held office before, is still little-known, giving him room to grow (his favorable/unfavorable is 29/10 with 61% undecided); Tedisco, by comparison, is much better known, although he’s viewed pretty favorably (47/20, with 34% with no opinion). The poll also asks an interesting question: whose endorsement will matter the most to you? The most common answer is Kirsten Gillibrand, who still maintains a stratospheric 75/15 favorability rating in the district. Gillibrand stumping in the district will go a long way toward helping Murphy here. Discussion is already underway in DTM,B!‘s diary.
Schumer, Bill Clinton, maybe Biden. Winning this would really cut the GOP off at the knees.
Than she richly deserves the primary challenge rumored to be coming her way.
Tedisco and all repubs have essentially nothing to run on. Once a few big names fly in to campaign for Murphy and he increases his name rec he’ll be fine.
Man, I hope she can set aside her time for the next 33 days, and work getting Murphy elected every spare minute she has out of the Senate.
that Siena has a history of pro-GOP bias in New York. Such as their September 2008 poll that found Obama up on McCain by only 46-41 (of course, he would go on to win the state by 63-36). If Siena finds us back only 12, it’s a good bet we’re in single digits here.
Less mentioned is the fact that Tedisco’s 50%-29% internal looks kind of goofy now. Why is it that Dem internals seem to be realistic but GOP internals are usually ridiculous?