SSP Daily Digest: 3/11

• CT-Sen: All the warning signs are there for Chris Dodd, and now a respected pollster confirms that even “Generic R” holds the incumbent well under 50%. In all likelihood, a serious race is in store here for Team Blue, so SSP is moving our rating on this race to “Likely Democrat.” (D)

• CA-32: The Governator has finally set the dates for the special election to replace Hilda Solis in the House: July 14. But the key date to watch is May 19, when there will be a special primary for the seat. With a number of strong Dems in the race, including state Sen. Gil Cedillo and state Board of Equalization Chairwoman Judy Chu, the real action is in the primary in this D+17 district. (Candidates of all parties rumble in one primary, and if one candidate breaks 50%, there is no general. With a third solid Dem in the race, investment banker Emanuel Pleitez, breaking 50% will be difficult, setting up a likely general election between the top Dem and a sacrificial GOPer.) (J)

• SC-01: Looks like GOP Rep. Henry “Smoky” Brown might be facing a pretty crowded primary field in 2010. In addition to yesterday’s news that Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III would run against the crusty incumbent, Paul Thurmond, the son of the late Strom Thurmond, is now saying that he too is considering taking on Brown. (J)

• PA-Sen: Roll Call does some interesting number crunching, revealing just how bad a position Arlen Specter starts from in a GOP primary against Pat Toomey. The problem is that Specter beat Toomey by only 17,000 votes in 2004, but Republican enrollments in Philadelphia and its suburbs (Specter’s base, and location of most of the state’s moderate Republicans) have dropped by 83,412 since then. With a closed primary, Specter may have to rely on moderate ex-GOPers who switched parties in 2008 to switch back tactically for 2010 to save his bacon in the primary. (It’s not unheard of: Ed Rendell wooed pro-choice Republicans to temporarily switch over for his 2002 gubernatorial primary against pro-life Bob Casey Jr.)

• CT-05: Connecticut’s executive director of the state Office of Military Affairs (and former Rob Simmons aide) Justin Bernier has resigned his post. Bernier told the New Britain Herald that he’s doing so in order to lay the groundwork for a run against Chris Murphy (who had little trouble disposing of state senator David Cappiello in 2008).

• Census: There wasn’t much doubt that incoming Commerce Secretary Gary Locke would have command over the 2010 Census (rather than direct White House control), but the White House officially confirmed the arrangement today.

24 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 3/11”

  1. DAMN, this is going to be interesting. Two dynastys running against each other.  Biggest battle since Fort Sumter could be in the making.  

    A bruising primary could pave the way for Ketner to win too.   Henry Brown is looking like a dead man walking.  

    Strom Thurmond Jr. is likely to run in the SC-3 seat that Grehsam Barrett is leaving to run for Governor.  

    Paul Thurmond is a Charleston County Councilman, bTW

  2. His constituents are clearly fed up with him, so maybe it’s time to put him out to graze and get a new face out there.

  3. California Special elections don’t work quote the way you describe. If one candidate gets more the 50% in the first round, then that person is elected. However, if no one exceeds 50%, then all of the top place finishers from each party run against one another in the general.

  4. http://www.rollcall.com/issues…

    Among Members of Congress, there’s a long-standing, proud tradition of the Airport Freakout. Add to the list of those who’ve indulged in meltdowns and temper tantrums while traveling one Sen. David Vitter, who on Thursday joined what we’ve dubbed the “Mile-Low Club” by going ballistic on an airline worker after missing a flight from Washington’s Dulles airport to New Orleans.

    According to an HOH tipster who witnessed the scene, the Louisiana Republican arrived Thursday evening at his United Airlines gate 20 minutes before the plane was scheduled to depart, only to find the gate had already been closed. Undeterred, Vitter opened the door, setting off a security alarm and prompting an airline worker to warn him that entering the gate was forbidden.

    Vitter, our spy said, gave the airline worker an earful, employing the timeworn “do-you-know-who-I-am” tirade that apparently grew quite heated.

    That led to some back and forth, and the worker announced to the irritable Vitter that he was going to summon security.

    Vitter, according to the witness, remained defiant, yelling that the employee could call the police if he wanted to and their supervisors, who, presumably, might be more impressed with his Senator’s pin.

    But after talking a huffy big game, Vitter apparently thought better of pushing the confrontation any further. When the gate attendant left to find a security guard, Vitter turned tail and simply fled the scene.

  5. With a closed primary, Specter may have to rely on moderate ex-GOPers who switched parties in 2008 to switch back tactically for 2010 to save his bacon in the primary.

    is that there is a Democratic primary for Governor, and maybe Senator as well.  They might rather vote for a Philly area Democrat in the primary than Specter, who might vote to the right in the next year.

  6. Possible Democrats: Gary Trauner, Nick Carter, Keith Goodenough, Chris Rothfuss?

    Possible Republicans: Barbara Cubin, Colin Simpson, Swede Nelson, Dan Zwonitzer, Mark Gordon, Bill Winney, Mike Holland?

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