Tennessee isn’t expected to gain or lose any seats from the 2010 Census. But certainly things could change in Tennessee’s House delegation.
Currently, Tennessee’s House delegation is 5-4 Democratic, despite the state’s recent trend toward the Republicans. A large part of this has to do with Democrat-friendly redistricting following the 2000 Census. At that time, there was a Republican governor, but Democrats had sizable majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and they were able to pass into law a new redistricting plan without his signature. This plan not only protected potentially vulnerable incumbent Bart Gordon, but also altered the 4th District — where Republican Van Hilleary was running for governor — enough to elect a Democrat.
But that’s unlikely to be the case in 2010. While Republicans hold narrow majorities in both houses of the legislature, given the state’s general Republican trend, it’s unlikely that Democrats will recapture either house in 2010. And since 1978, Tennessee has changed parties in the governor’s mansion every eight years like clockwork. Odds are that Republicans will control redistricting in Tennessee after the 2010 Census.
Even if Republicans aren’t in complete control of the process, population shifts dictate that some changes will have to be made. Specifically:
-West Tennessee has gained population much more slowly than the rest of the state. After the 2000 Census, West Tennessee had enough population for roughly 2.37 districts; that’s now down to about 2.16 or so.
-Middle Tennessee, correspondingly, has seen its proportion of the state’s population increase, from about 3.24 to 3.45 districts. Virtually all of that shift has been in the Nashville metro area; rural Middle Tennessee has seen no population shift.
Assuming Republican control, here’s what to expect.
East Tennessee
From the Republican perspective, redistricting in East Tennessee is pretty simple. Its proportion of the state’s population has not changed much (3.38 districts in 2000, 3.36 projected in 2010), and it’s heavily Republican.
Most likely, the three districts entirely in East Tennessee will not be changed much except to reflect population shifts. There will be a 1st District based in the Tri-Cities area of northeast Tennessee (currently represented by Phil Roe); a Knoxville-based 2nd District to re-elect Jimmy Duncan; and a Chattanooga-based 3rd District, currently held by Zach Wamp (who’s running for Governor), and presumably held by another Chattanooga-based Republican after 2010. The current 3rd District was gerrymandered in part to deprive the Republican candidate in the 4th District of key votes; presumably Republicans will do no such thing.
Middle Tennessee
As mentioned before, Middle Tennessee has increased its proportion of the state’s population, from enough population for 3.24 districts in 2000 to a projected 3.45 districts in 2010. Four incumbents currently reside in Middle Tennessee — Democrats Jim Cooper of Nashville, Bart Gordon of Murfreesboro, Lincoln Davis of Byrdstown, and Republican Marsha Blackburn of Franklin.
Middle Tennessee will be the key battleground of redistricting — East Tennessee is Republican enough that the lines don’t make much of a difference, and it’s hard to imagine Republicans could draw a district that wouldn’t re-elect John Tanner (more on that later, though.) In addition, while Nashville and the six suburban counties immediately surrounding it have enough population for 2.08 districts, three incumbents live in this area.
One thing is rather certain: the Nashville-based 5th District will be preserved in something close to current form. Davidson County has almost enough population for a whole Congressional district, and it’s Democratic enough that Republicans won’t want any part of it.
After the 2000 Census, Democrats altered Gordon’s 6th District to exclude Williamson County; since that change, Gordon hasn’t had a close race after having several in the 1990s. Republicans probably won’t be so kind. One possibility would be to combine Gordon’s Rutherford County base with the Nashville base of Jim Cooper. There are two reasons for this: one, to force Cooper and Gordon into a primary with one another; and two, Rutherford County is the least Republican of the counties surrounding Nashville. The other possibility is that Republicans would place Gordon in the same district with Marsha Blackburn, in a district that would probably at least lean Republican at the national level.
The current 7th District, which stretches from suburban Nashville to suburban Memphis, is unlikely to be preserved. The whole point of it was to pack Republican votes into one district in an attempt to help Democratic incumbents in neighboring districts; Republicans are unlikely to be so inclined. One possibility is for a new 7th District to be based in Montgomery County (Clarksville) and include some of the western suburbs of Nashville, combined with the Tennessee River counties and/or some of the rural areas south and west of Nashville.
Davis’s 4th District is Republican enough on the national level that even in current form, it could give him a tough time. A new 4th District might combine his base in the upper Cumberland area with a few counties in East Tennessee, and possibly stretching west as far as the outskirts of metro Nashville.
West Tennessee
Steve Cohen’s 9th District is likely to be preserved in close to current form; the Voting Rights Act dictates one black-majority district in Tennessee, and since the city of Memphis is majority-black and has almost enough population for an entire Congressional district, there is little point in altering the lines much except to meet the population standard. Republicans could attempt to combine inner-city Memphis with rural Haywood County (a majority-black county that voted 60 percent for Obama), but it’s unclear why Republicans would do this.
Republicans are probably never going to unseat John Tanner; it’s almost impossible to imagine a district based in rural West Tennessee that would not elect Tanner. But Tanner turns 65 this year, and there’s a good possibility that he’ll retire some time in the next decade, so Republicans will probably want to draw a district that they can win in the event that he retires. Such a district would probably combine the Shelby County suburbs with most of the rest of West Tennessee; the remainder of West Tennessee would probably be placed in the 7th District.
This obviously becomes complicated if Blackburn runs for governor and a Shelby County Republican wins the current 7th; Republicans wouldn’t dare throw a freshman Republican in a race against Tanner.
Summary
Tennessee’s current 5-4 Democratic House delegation, unfortunately, is probably living on borrowed time. Eventually, the state’s Republican trend and population shifts will catch up to the Democrats. Retirements too will help that along: currently, Lincoln Davis is 65, Bart Gordon is 60, and John Tanner is 64.
The picture I’ve painted is bleak, to be sure. It assumes that Republicans will be in complete control of redistricting following the 2010 Census. It’s not hard to imagine them drawing a district that would vote out Davis, while they might draw Gordon into a district with another incumbent.
Even if Democrats gain control of one house of the legislature, or retain control of the governorship, population shifts will make it difficult to preserve their current advantage. The suburban counties surrounding Nashville, which are heavily Republican for the most part, will command a greater share of current districts that could threaten Gordon and possibly Davis.
On the other hand, it’s worth noting that while Tennessee has shifted toward Republicans to be sure, the shift probably isn’t as great as it would appear merely from looking at the Presidential results. The drop from Gore in 2000 to Kerry in 2004 is easily explained by the fact that, well, Gore is from Tennessee. And as much as it pains me to say it, the drop from Kerry to Obama probably had a lot to do with Obama’s race. (You’ll notice that in Memphis and Nashville, Obama actually improved on Kerry’s performance; the rural areas had a lot more to do with the dropoff.)
Nathaniel90 will probably get around to doing Tennessee eventually, and he’ll probably have a map.