NY-20: Results Thread


436 of 610 Precincts Reporting
CandidatePartyVotesPercent
Scott Murphy(D)53,25050%
Jim Tedisco(R)54,20150%

RESULTS: Associated Press | PostStar.com | Albany Times-Union

9:59PM: Let’s move this discussion over here.

9:51PM (David): Sorry about the site slowness – I guess we’re popular tonight. Our back-of-the-envelope shows that (like the results so far), things are shaping up to be super-tight. Given the number of absentee ballots outstanding, this one might not get decided tonight.

9:38PM: 312 precincts in, and Tedisco! pulls back ahead by 800 votes.

9:35PM: 280 precincts in, and Murphy pulls ahead by just over 200 votes.

9:33PM: 206 precincts in, and Tedisco has grown his lead to about 2500 votes.

9:28PM: 168 precincts in, and Tedisco leads by 1300 votes. Starting to narrow ever so slightly in Saratoga.

9:23PM: 52-48 Tedisco! with 90 precincts in.

9:20PM: With just 50 precincts reporting, Tedisco holds a narrow 51-49 lead (about 350 votes), but leads big in the early-reporting Saratoga precincts.

9:03PM Eastern: Polls are now closed in New York. It’s time to rock ‘n’ roll.

122 thoughts on “NY-20: Results Thread”

  3. They say there no atheists in battlefield foxholes.  I am not sure there are any atheists among progressive Democrats on nights like these.

  5. that Tedisco’s been headfaking us all along with this disastrous semblance of a campaign in meltdown, lowering expectations so that if he wins it looks like some kind of miracle?

  12. 50 out of 610 reporting.

    Murphy 49, Tedisco 51.

    Warren is the most heavily reported county so far, and Murphy is doing much better than Obama there as expected (home district).

    Very little of Saratoga is in yet, so hard to tell whether Tedisco’s 59-41 early lead there will hold up.

  13. Interesting that it’s already this close with only a small amount of the precincts in. Anything other than a few hundred vote margin for either candidate would be a suprise to me at this point.  

  14. Northern Saratoga counties are likely in first, Southern Saratoga is much denser and much more favorable to Murphy.  Plus city of Saratoga has ALOT of active Obama Dems, I know from volunteering.

  15. with more of Saratoga and Greene in.  So far Warren is keeping him afloat, but it’s half reported already.  Again, Saratoga is large enough that it’s hard to tell if the reported districts are representative of the whole county.

  18. and he’s doing well there, and he’s starting to gain in Saratoga and is holding steady in Warren, outperforming by 6 or 7 points over Obama so it should be enough to counter a weak margin in Saratoga.

  22. Based on the benchmarks posted a few days ago, what we’re looking for is, basically, tie it up overall in Saratoga (a third of the district), and win by a few points in the southern bit of the district = Duchess + Columbia, which together account for about a quarter of the district or something like that.

    At least, that’s based on the Obama benchmarks.  Perhaps given the candidates, it is possible for Murphy to win even if very narrowly losing Saratoga overall, making it up in Warren? (?)  We’ll see soon.

  24. he’s winning it by 1,500 votes:

    Scott Murphy Democratic 5326

    Jim Tedisco Republican 3875

    Scott Murphy Independence 500

    Jim Tedisco Conservative 615

    Scott Murphy Working Families 228

  28. things are looking bad, Tedisco is running up his entire margin of victory out of Saratoga, and it’s not even half through reporting, while Warren, Murphy’s base, is almost completely in.

  36. Warren and Washington came in for Murphy, as did Columbia. If margins hold in those three counties and Essex, and he wins Delaware and keeps these margins he could win even with his weak showing in Saratoga.

  37. Warren and Washington came in for Murphy, as did Columbia. If margins hold in those three counties and Essex, and he wins Delaware and keeps these margins he could win even with his weak showing in Saratoga.

  40. Murphy trails 44-56 there, after as bad as 41-59 earlier.  Half of Saratoga is still out, and if the last half is good for Murphy, he might not do so bad in that county, and his margins elsewhere will put him over the top.

  41. 38,199 (Murphy) against 39,002 (Tedisco), according to the Saratogian.

    I don’t know how Murphy comes back unless he can narrow Tedisco’s edge in Saratoga. I mean, one-third of the precincts left are in a county that Tedisco is winning by 57-43.

    Also, isn’t Rennselaer (sic?) in the same county as the technical college? I figured Tedisco would be doing worse there. Obama owns college towns.

  49. Aren’t there ~6,000 absentee ballots out there? Also, Talking Points Memo seems to have the most updated numbers: Tedisco – 46,969 and Murphy – 46,645.

  53. 809 vote lead for Tedisco!

    Boo.

    Murphy is doing very poorly in Saratoga. I don’t see how he pulls this out, but it will sure be close. Final margin under 1k. The military ballots could swing it.  

  54. voted for Jim Tedisco is a special election doesn’t make me feel good about how much this country wants progressive ideas. I could forgive a Republican win in a low turnout election, but these are midterm numbers we’re seeing here.  

  55. the numbers throughout the district are genuinely okay for Murphy, not stellar, but okay. A 4,000 vote deficit in Saratoga is dooming us.

    Then again, whoever wins tonight won’t win by more than 1-2,000 votes, and rumor is there are a lot of absentees out there. We may not have a winner until those are counted.

  57. Not really a shock, figured Tedisco would win.  Very sad, but not unexpected.  Looks like Republicans will be winning back at least 20 seats in 2010.

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