Given that Republican Representative Jean Schmidt of Ohio has accomplished the remarkable feat of barely winning two successive House elections in a district that delivered nearly two thirds of its vote to George W. Bush in 2004, it should probably not come as a surprise that Schmidt is on the receiving end of her second primary challenge in as many years. As you may recall, she beat back a 2006 primary challenge from former Congressman Bob McEwen by a 5% margin, despite only receiving a plurality of the vote. That primary proved to be an ominous warning against her abilities to navigate the political environment that November.
This time, the man itching for a fight is former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich (yes, of that Heimlich family, it would seem). Heimlich served for eight years on the Cincinnati City Council and one term on the Hamilton County commission until his defeat by Democrat and former Cincinnati mayoral candidate David Pepper last November. It’s an okay resume, but his experience is decidedly more city-focused than the largely suburban/rural nature of the 2nd district–something that could conceivably hurt him in a head-to-head with Schmidt.
Still, Heimlich says he means business:
Heimlich said in an e-mail message to supporters that he has filed the necessary paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission and that his campaign treasury, which will be overseen by Bill Luchsinger, contains $120,000.“Our party is yearning for a return to the principles established by Abraham Lincoln, the leadership and dignity demonstrated by Ronald Reagan and the common sense conservative values shared by all Republicans,” Heimlich said.
If that’s the case, Mr. Heimlich’s $120K puts him in a good position against Schmidt, whose lackadaisical fundraising pace only left her with $17,000 cash-on-hand (and $20K raised) after the first quarter of 2007.
Essentially, if Heimlich, or any other halfway stable Republican beats Schmidt in the primary, this district is most likely off the playing field for Democrats in 2008. Any Republican who hasn’t spent their time advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into their congressional district, brushing off the Walter Reed scandal as “overblown”, or being scolded by the state’s Elections Commission for displaying a “reckless disregard for the truth” is going to have a much smoother ride than Schmidt in this solidly Republican district. Our best case scenario would be for Heimlich and possibly one or two other credible Republicans to hammer Schmidt mercilessly for a year, leading her to another underwhelming plurality victory, and letting Vic Wulsin or the eventual Democratic nominee take over from there.
(Hat tip: Buckeye State Blog)
Race Tracker: OH-02
The thing is, even if Wulsin were to win in 2008 (or if he had won in 2006), he would be the prototypical one-term Congressman. As soon as Schmidt was out of the picture, the GOP would put somebody worthwhile up and they would win.
Will Danny Bubp run for this seat.
We have to remind him that Real Marines don’t cut and run.
Here’s hoping Schmidt wins the primary, and Hackett enters the race.
I think he’s done as a candidate. Sad, because he would have made a hell of a U.S. Senator.
I go away for a while and you are still posting Pics of Mean Jean aka Cafeteria Lady!
Poor Jean, even other Republicans don’t like her. Quel Surprise!
A Mention/Link to your Diary will be posted on Kos in “Cheers & Jeers” tomorrow morning. Thanks for the Diary and Heads Up. I hear ole Kenny Blackwell might be interested in this seat too.
Cheers!