KY-Gov: Primary Open Thread

UPDATE (David): No runoffs, which is great news for us all around. Beshear wins with 41% while Lunsford limps in with 21%. Meanwhile, Fletcher crushes Northup 51-37. A while back, I was sure Fletcher would wind up like Frank Murkowski in Alaska, but thankfully here, GOP voters did us a solid.

Meanwhile, some 350,000 Dems voted in our primary while just 200,000 Republicans voted in theirs. I’m not exactly sure how to interpret this, given that Kentucky clearly has a Democratic overhang from the old days of the Solid South – it’s a decidedly red state, yet there are 50% more registered Dems than Republicans. But I can’t see how the turnout disparity is a bad thing for us.


For updated results as they come in, try the Kentucky State Board of Elections.

It’s primary night in Kentucky, and a lot is on the line.

On the Republican side, if you believe the latest polling from SurveyUSA, the Kentucky GOP faithful is on the verge of giving corrupt Gov. Ernie Fletcher a second chance over ex-Rep. Anne Northup (likely primary voters; 5/18-20 results, 5/12-14 results in parens):

Fletcher (R): 44 (44)
Northup (R): 34 (34)
Harper (R): 17 (14)
Undecided: 5 (8)
(MoE: ±4.6%)

However, in a low-turnout election, anything can happen.  Fletcher will need to eke out 40% of the vote in order to avoid a runoff.  On the other hand, that Fletcher appears to be in the dominant position on election day is nothing short of remarkable, as most prognosticators assumed that the highly-touted campaign skills of Northup combined with the sagging popularity of the scandal-ridden incumbent would be enough to jettison Fletcher’s career once and for all.

On the Democratic side, a runoff appears more likely between former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear and businessman Bruce Lunsford:

Beshear: 32 (32)
Lunsford: 23 (23)
Henry: 17 (18)
Richards: 12 (12)
Undecided: 6 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)

The Swing State Project hasn’t spent much time discussing the Kentucky Governor’s race so far this year, but if this race whittles down to a primary between Lunsford and Beshear, the kid gloves will come off.  Having Bruce Lunsford as the Democratic nominee would be nothing short of an unacceptable scenario.  Lunsford, who dropped out of the 2003 Democratic gubernatorial primary after pumping millions of his own dollars into vicious negative advertising, stabbed the eventual nominee, Ben Chandler, in the back by endorsing Fletcher just months after pledging to remain neutral (he even went on to serve as part of Fletcher’s transition team).  And while he was engaging in some truly despicable practices as a nursing home owner, he forked over 77% of his political donations to Republicans, including thousands to Anne Northup, Jim Bunning, Mitch McConnell, George W. Bush, the RNC, the NRSC… pretty much the works.

The Swing State Project makes no secret that we’re a Democratic blog that wishes Democratic candidates well.  But Lunsford ain’t no Democrat, and we won’t spend a minute carrying any water for that miserable excuse for a politician should the unthinkable happen and he go on to win the Democratic nomination.  Kentucky deserves so much better than a Fletcher v. Lunsford nightmare.

Race Tracker: KY-Gov

24 thoughts on “KY-Gov: Primary Open Thread”

  1. I volunteered for Beshear in a campaign long ago.  He is progressive, but moderate enough to do well in Kentucky.  His running mate, Dr. Dan, nearly beat Bunning for senate in 2004.  I wish them the best. 

    I also wish Gov. Fletcher the best today.  He is so disliked, he would have a very hard time winning in November.  And with what has proven to be a very nasty Republican primary, he may have trouble even unifying his base.  Northup would be a strong contender in the fall, so for today,Go Ernie.

    Of note (although I do not know what impact it will have), turnout had been projected to be very low and the number of absentees was reported to be lower than four years ago, but today, the Sec of State has increased his turnout projection to 20% (I think it had been 17%), and says that absentees proved to be higher than four years ago. 
    http://www.whas.com/…

  3. The results are posted here:
    http://electionresul…

    At present, 11% of the votes are counted and Beshear and Northup way out ahead.  Northup’s base (obviously) is Jefferson Co. and Beshear is strongest in central Ky., so this may not mean much except which votes have been counted. 

    The Sec of State shows which counties have reported, but does not say what percentage has been counted — just that reporting in a given county is “in progress.” 

  4. are in.

    94 counties complete.  8 counties are MIA still.

    Fletcher is the winner no matter what I think.  50.9% to 35.7%

    Beshear is on the edge of avoiding a runoff, and is at 41.8%  It will be very close.

    1. 30 complete, 68 in progress, 22 no results.

      Beshear at 44.8%
      Lunsford at 20.5%

      Fletcher at 47.8%
      Northup at 40.0%

      I think Northup is done for.

  5. of precincts are in.

    Beshear keeps fluctuating around 41.2%  I think we are going to be ok.  (keeping my fingers crossed so I dont jinx it)

    1. If Beshear gets 0 votes out of the final 10% he will end up with 38%.  So we might be ok…

    2. If Beshear gets 0 votes out of the final 10% he will end up with 38%.  So we might be ok…

      1. If Beshear can pull this out, we’ve got a great general election match up coming our way.

        1. in the same party both clear the 40% threshold?  is there a runoff?  i cannot locate the rules of the primary for kentucky online.

      2. First that KY is my favorite state due to the real time results they offer.  Real time turnout numbers?  How cool is that!

        Second, speaking of those turnout numbers.  So far, 312,000+ Dems have voted, compared to 181,000+ Reps.  Granted Dems have a large registration edge, but we also had a higher percentage of our voters show.  It bodes well to have a corrupt Republican elected and a much more excited Democratic base choose our best option.

        1. A slate of candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor that receives not less
          than forty percent (40%) of its party’s votes cast shall be the nominee of its party for
          those offices and that slate of candidates shall receive the certificate of nomination;
          except that if two (2) slates of candidates receive forty percent (40%) or more of
          their party’s votes, the slate receiving the higher number of votes shall be its party’s
          nominee, and no runoff primary shall be conducted.

          one would think a runoff would be held in such a situation, but i guess not.

          1. complete, 48 in progress.

            Beshear at 46.6, Lunsford at second with 19.2
            Northrup up 46.3 to 42.6

            If this is her base then she is in a lot of trouble.

          2. at 6:00 local time.  The state is split between eastern and central, but far more votes are in eastern. 

    1. Does Kentucky have a closed primary system, like California that only democrats can vote for democrats, repbulicans for republicans. Kentucky has a large amount of registered democrats, but that doesn’t mean in the end they’ll vote democratic. So I’m just curious if do they maybe have to vote for the party that they’re registered with, or can they vote on which ever ticket they chose? Because the numbers could be skewed by people being forced to vote democrat when maybe they wouldn’t given a choice? Any thoughts?

  7. Maybe Gov. Beshear will, for karmic balance, do us all a favor and endorse Jonathan Miller for Senate? An uphill battle, to be sure, but McConnell is a pretty wily Senate leader and it’d be great to pin him down over the next several months.

    I predict that Miller will have gotten a phone call or two from Sen. Schumer or Reid by the end of the week.

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