According to the Buckeye State Blog, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy is set to have the primary field all to herself in her rematch bid against faux-moderate Republican Deborah Pryce:
I’m getting highly reliable reports that this morning Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks announced her intention not to make a formal bid for Congress in the OH-15 race. Apparently Commissioner Brooks called Commissioner Kilroy and informed her of the news first.
Studious readers of the Swing State Project might know that I’m generally not optimistic about House rematches, with certain exceptions: scandal, or when the challenger turns a low-profile shell campaign into a serious threat (e.g. Paul Hodes). We all saw how four years of the same campaign worked for Lois Murphy (PA-06) and Diane Farrell (CT-04) last year. Mary Jo Kilroy is no exception, but she could have a possible opening if she can reorient her campaign message. Searching high and low on Youtube, I couldn’t find a single TV spot from Kilroy’s 2006 campaign hitting Pryce on Iraq directly: not from her, not from the DCCC, not from any of the third-party groups who dropped some serious coin into Ohio’s 15th last year. All I can find is the standard stuff: bio fluff, fiscal responsibility, veteran’s benefits, congressional pay raises, perscription drug prices, etc. The only Iraq-related ad produced by Kilroy that I could find was this one featuring a disabled Iraq vet, but its message has much more to do with trying to prove toughness on security matters (“immediate wiretapping!”) rather than opposing the war or even calling for change in Iraq. Now, it’s entirely possible that Kilroy aired a series of hard-hitting Iraq ads that didn’t find their way to Youtube, but given the sheer volume of OH-15 ads available on the site, it doesn’t seem likely.
If Kilroy truly failed to exploit the Iraq issue, and if she’s prepared to reverse course, then she may have a legitimate shot at giving Pryce another serious run. But if we’re going to see another two years of giving Pryce a pass on Iraq, color me unimpressed.
Brooks seemed like a candidate so much stronger than Kilroy. She had a more natural base. While Kilroy represents a more urban, liberal area of Franklin county, Brooks represents a more suburban and conservative area that wasa stronger part of the county for Pryce. Pryce won by 1000 votes, so taking 1001 votes from the outer suburbs of Franklin county would beat her. Columbus and it’s immediate suburbs are going to go democratic regardless, and likely by a large margin becuase of presidential turnout.
It’s not just Hodes: new congresspeople who got in on their second run include Jerry McNerney and Nancy Boyda.