In case you missed it, Public Policy Polling released a new poll (warning: PDF) today of the North Carolina Senate race, pitting Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole against several hypothetical Democratic challengers: state Rep. Grier Martin, state Sen. Kay Hagan, and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. But wait–this isn’t any ordinary poll; it’s an informed vote poll, where respondents (likely voters, in this case) hear a brief one-line bio about the lesser known-candidates:
“To compensate for the extremely low name recognition of state legislators, we added a short description of Martin and Hagan to the survey,” explained Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.Martin was described as a “37 year-old two-term legislator” and “veteran of the War in Afghanistan,” while Hagan was a “five-term State Senator” and “chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.”
So take it with the appropriate grain of salt that Dole isn’t doing this badly against Grier Martin (at least, not yet):
Grier Martin (D): 37%
Elizabeth Dole (R): 43%Kay Hagan (D): 27%
Elizabeth Dole (R): 43%Elaine Marshall (D): 35%
Elizabeth Dole (R): 46%MoE: ±4.2%
So who is Grier Martin? Back in February, SSP diarist blue south gave us his profile:
Grier Martin is a relative newcomer to politics. He is 37, and was first elected to the NC House in 2004. There are two very important details though. First, in 2004 he won a very expensive race against an incumbent with a large amount of personal income in a district that leans Republican. A huge upset. Just as importantly, he actually has name ID across the state, due to the fact that his father, DG Martin was the Attorney General for many years. He has also taken some interesting stands in the legislature, including voting against the budget one year and voting against the creation of a lottery. Additionally, he has military credentials. After 9/11 he volunteered for the Army, and spent 2003 in Afghanistan.His name has been mentioned in the rumor mill as someone contemplating a run. To be honest, after Brad Miller, he is my top choice. He has a gorgeous family, including a young daughter. His age puts him square into the only age bracket that showed support for Dole in the last poll. And, he is the type of candidate that has a background that would allow him to take progressive positions without being called a no good dirty, Washington, liberal.
Grier sounds like an interesting option now that a Brad Miller candidacy is off the table. Like the poll suggests: he has the right profile.
Paging Chuck Schumer to the multi-colored courtesy phone, please. Paging Chuck Schumer…
BlueNC has more.
Is he even considering a run? Seems like he would be the strongest bet. Even without Easley, it sounds like we have a pretty decent field in NC. I predicted after 2004 that the Democrats wouldn’t win another Senate race in the South (outside of Arkansas) in a generation, but with an incumbent as weak as Dole, and a slowly changing North Carolina electorate, I’d give us modest odds of an upset here.
I think I was wrong when I said his dad was AG. His dad is very well known though. In 98 he ran for Senate, and lost in the primary to this guy you might know, John Edwards.
By the way, Grier has also blogged at BlueNC before.
Martin like Brad Miller is from Raleigh and would be considered a moderate to conservative democrat in NC where Brad is considered more center-left which is ok in his district. Grier Martin a decorated Vet, young, photogenic wife and family would give the old battle ax a great run and would be better positioned to pick up votes in the more conservative areas on NC along the coast and possibly pick up some votes in hard conservative mountains and certainly would among all the Northeastern and California transplant that seem to be washing over the state like a Tsunami. Dole can be beaten but it has to be the right candidate. As much as I like, voted for, respect and contributed …Brad would not play well statewide. The GOP is weakened because of in fighting by the radicals, and the more middle ground crowd..few as they are..but it has been nasty and MRS Dole I do not believe would win if a serious candidate would run. Easley, the dark personailty in the Govenors mansion will NOT run so no need to even suggest it any more. Elaine Marshal is a very nice lady but again, does not have the chops. Grier if he can be prevailed upon might be an interesting pick…if he could raise the cash. He is not a guy of great means so would need the states money heavies to get behind him.