(First off, I'd like to thank DavidNYC for asking me to join the Swing State Project team. While the South and its unique brand of politics is my area of greatest familiarity, I'll try not to focus too much on races from below the Mason-Dixon. In any case, I'm looking forward to writing here at SSP and contributing to the electoral analysis and discussion that the site's known for.)
Over the past few months, conventional wisdom has been that Republican “Bobby” Jindal is an inevitability in his campaign for governor of Louisiana. While that opinion's been reinforced by a few polls, there's also plenty of evidence and polling with which to argue the contrary.
Being the front-runner certainly carries its benefits for Jindal, but it also means that he'll be the guy with a big bullseye on his back throughout the campaign. Over the next two months, Jindal's opponents will unload their campaign warchests in a concentrated effort to dampen his support and lower his numbers.
Independently wealthy Democratic State Senator Walter Boasso has been airing ads for over a month with some success. In his ads, Boasso slams Jindal's paper-thin record and highlights Jindal's close ties with the Bush administration. But Jindal is also facing trouble from his right, as wealthy GOP businessman John Georges has $7 million COH with which he plans to argue he is the “true conservative” in the race. In addition, Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell has over $1 million in his account. To top it all off, the Louisiana Democratic Party has commenced a major ad buy tarring Jindal.
And of course, the scandal involving Sen. David Vitter's patronage of prostitutes has tarnished the image of the state GOP. To make matters worse for Jindal, he's taking flak from both sides on this issue. Many are upset with Jindal for not calling for Vitter's resignation, while conservatives like Georges are accusing Jindal of “abandoning” Vitter.
Considering that this race is just now heating up although Jindal's been considered an heir-apparent by the media for months, Democrats should take heart from a recent poll commissioned by Georges. In the poll conducted in late July, only 38% of Louisianans said they're planning to vote for Jindal. And the way I see it, he's got nowhere to go but down from there.
This race is far from over. For local updates, keep an eye on the Daily Kingfish.
Not able to post a comment.
Not only is the Southern Media and Opinion Research more recent than the Georges poll, it is also more reliable.
1) SMOR is an independent pollster, not connected to any campaign, while Georges’s poll, especially if it was conducted with the intention of being released publically, may have been tilted to Georges’s favor, or against Jindal.
2) SMOR asked a traditional ballot test question that all major pollsters use. Georges poll apparently asked the respondent and gave only two answers: vote for Jindal, or haven’t made up mind or voting for someone else. The conflation of the last option is troubling, to say the least. For starters, its not a legitimate way to gauge Jindal’s support, or anyone else’s for that matter. The question seems to have been constructed solely for the purpose of bringing down Jindal’s numbers.
And in my gut, it feels that the South will be the South. For any significant change in policies for this country, we have to look elsewhere. Like the Rocky Mountain states.
this is the third time in two weeks I’ve been unable to post a long comment that I spent a while writing. Why can’t I seem to post anything on this site anymore?
but mark me down as NOT A FAN of using scare quotes around Bobby Jindal’s name.
At the end of the day, I do think it’s race baiting. “He’s not really Bobby, really he’s Piyush, and do you really want to vote for a guy named Piyush, or a guy who doesn’t want you to know he’s named Piyush?” is the message. In other words, “he wants you to think he’s one of you, but really he’s The Other.” And pushing voters to not choose someone to lead them, because he’s The Other, sucks.
If he had started going by Bobby five or fifteen years ago, you’d have a case for calling him out as inauthentic. But if the accounts I’ve read, that say he chose the name Bobby for himself when he was four are correct, then I decline to buy the “he’s inauthentic” charge, and believe that that charge is just a fig leaf for the real dynamic.
I’m open to argument, and I realize that saying “x behavior (that you are doing) is race baiting” is kindof explosive, and I don’t wish to attack you, but I really dislike the scare quote thing.
And I realize this may have been debated ad nauseam, and if you’re still doing it it may be because your side has marshalled some good arguments. But still. I’m left with a really strong immediate impression that something shitty is going on, so even if you can justify it, that reaction is something to consider.
anything about Louisiana politics knows who commissioned that poll. In fact, the results reflect it. But the person who contracted it was shrewd enough to have the results published without noting who sponsored it if the results were not to his liking. Since I do not view it as legitimate, I will not discuss it. But I imagine “Bobby” supporters will tout it, and they have. And given recent polling, this poll is a major outlier. Regarding the Daily Kingfish, we are the most informed source on this race. And not citing one poll does not invalidate that status. And were you not already banned from this site?
in really rigorous and extensive opposition research on Jindal at Daily Kingfish. We have also interpreted the polls, and we are essentially the people to contact in the blogosphere about this race. We look forward to future inquiries about this race. And I am happy the race about which I have been writing for months is finally receiving some attention. Feel free to contact us at pointecoupeedemocrat@hotmail.com or at lamediawatch@gmail.com if you need any help interpreting this race.
we are a distinct entity. Our demographics are different; our electoral system is different; our legal code is different; and our politics are different. This is why Louisiana politics always eludes regional trends. In fact, I think should be viewed as a Mississippi River state and not as a Southern state.
I wish you had been the one to cover MS – 03. It your neighbor to the West anyway. 🙂
came to the same conclusion days ago on daily kingfish.