Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

38 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

1. I’m spending mine in Montreal, Quebec.  See you next Wednesday!

2. So basically its going to be a rematch between Risch and LaRocco.

   Does LaRocco stand a chance anymore since he kind of got trounced in 2006.  I can see a Democrat winning on local issues in Idaho but can he win on national issues, especially against someone who has already beat him?

   Maybe a GOP primary will do us some good.

   1. Montreal is a great city, James. I can’t tell you how jealous I am of you this weekend. It’s been a few years since I went there, and I’ve been working hard to convince someone to go there again with me.

      Enjoy your visit!

      1. I almost always include “I think that” when its a matter that I’m not certain of. For races like AL-SEN and ID-SEN, yeah, I’ll go out on the limb and say they weren’t pick-up opportunities. For most of the other races that get discussed here (the races that might actually have a chance of being competitive), I always qualify my predictions.

         My assertions aren’t negative things about Democrats; I can’t recall a single time I’ve posting something bad about a Democrat. I do agree that my assertions are less optomistic about electoral successes for Democrats.

         1. I’ve been to Quebec City, too. I didn’t like it quite as much because I enjoy the big city feel (it’s what I get from living in a town of 8,000…), but Quebec City was a great place.

            And it appealed to the history buff in me more than Montreal, especially seeing the Plains of Abraham. And there’s something about seeing a walled city in North America… You might also spot some buildings that look vaguely familiar, because a lot of Hollywood studios use Quebec as a substitute for Europe.

            I’d certainly recommend going to both. Montreal is easily navigable without any great knowledge of French. Quebec City, you’re fine with English in the tourist areas. But if you speak French, that opens up so many more possibilities. Le Château Frontenac is, of course, a must-see.

            Ah, geez. I’m turning into a Canadian travel agent!

            1. you were trying to say Warner wasn’t going to retire a few days ago on that post, or at least you’re tone suggested it. By the way, did you see the new indpendant poll showing Jindall falling down to 44% if Georges switched to Independant? Not to mention Georges still has what, another 2.5 million dollars worth of money to spend on advertising, two months of campaigning, and the debates to suck more votes from Jindall, or too damage his coalition of voters. That is, if Jindall attends the debates. He’s been skimping out of pretty much everything, and he hasn’t exactly been bombarding us with ads, almost the opposite actually. Boasso continues to gain, the last poll I saw, (aside from the Georges as an indpendant one), had over the 20% mark, and he continues to raise money at a fast clip, and he can and may dump a few million of his own dollars in the race last minute if he thinks he can win. I’m almost certain it’s going to a runoff though.,

3. Corrupt or incompetent incumbents have a tendency of getting reelected if no one runs against them…

   The entire Republican Party in Alaska might reek of corruption, but it’s still going to be a somewhat uphill battle at best for a Democrat to snag that seat.  Whoever it is will need tons of money (for Alaska races standards) and to pray that Stevens isn’t swapped out with Sarah Palin or a similar moderate (again, using Alaska standards) reformer.  Begich is probably the best person in the state to do this, but he needed to be declared and fundraising yesterday.  It’s tempting to just sit back and watch the Alaska GOP implode, but given how Republican Alaska is, there will be plenty of contenders ready to rise up from the ashes.  Any news on if and when he’s getting in?

   Meanwhile in North Carolina, Dole continues to poll under 50% in job approval and in 2008 match-ups against 3rd-stringers, but yet, nobody’s jumping at the opportunity to take her out.  Is there ANY news on this front?

   1. State predictions as flat facts (I can almost see the reflection of your face in your crystal ball), almost never hedging, never tossing in a modest “I think that…”. And funny, too, how your many of your recent flat assertions involve negative things about Democrats.

      1. The first one was great, the kids in a classroom not so much, and this one is really good with his Katrina credentials right on the screen. But I always love to hear Boasso’s voice. Reminds me how visiting NOLA always used to seem like an English-as-a-second language experience for me — fun but challenging.

         1.   In the past 10 years there have been about 200 rematch races and only 10 have won on a rematch. Six of them occurred in 2006. ( Politics1 commented on this several months ago) Now granted the statistics are skewed because you have people that run several times in noncompetitive seats, but rematch success rate still appears poor. Burner I feel will beat this trend because: 1. she is running in a competitive district 2. she can raise a good amount of money, many rematch tries often fail at fundraising. 3. she lost a close election, many rematches are rematches of blowouts.

              Your statistic on House members losing a previous try for the house is also correct. I believe it is around 150 members that lost their first race, a significant number. Most won because they moved or were redistricted in a new district, the incumbent retired, or often the won a lower office and built up their political base and then one of the first two events occured.

4. 1. Could he appoint himself; like we were worried about Mike Rounds in SD doing?  Because as surprising as this is for a deep-red state like Idaho, he seems like the only top-tier Repub who’s not loathed (there was a front-page diary on kos earlier about what light-weights the rest of the top-tier in Idaho are).  Although, Hell, I don’t know his approval numbers; they could be just as bad.

      1. After reading all the rematch stuff on this blog, I really dont like them.  Sure Burner could do it this time but if she couldnt do it last time when she had the support of the DCCC and was a top targeted race, whats to say she can win this time?

5. The unbelievable act of the netroots raising $120K for Darcy Burner when Bush came to visit — more than a YEAR before the election.

   Now that’s people-power!

6. What about New Hampshire’s Senate race. When’s Shaheen going to announce her decision?

   1. ask Nancy Boyda. She’ll probably tell you.  ;-P

      McNerney and Hodes might also have some advice.

   2. 1) presidential turnout

      2) further deterioration in the reputations of Bush, and Republicans generally

      3) further deterioration in the old CountryOnTheRightTrack/NeedAChange metric

      4) campaigns work, and to introduce a previously unknown person, sometimes a three year campaign is better than a one year campaign

      5) events.  who knows what the next year will bring.  who knows what voters will be demanding.

7. Self-imposed deadlines for Hal Daub, Bob Kerrey, Jim Esch, Scott Kleeb, Chuck Hagel, and Mike Fahey are coming up very soon.

8. The Democratic contest to take on Mitch Daniels next fall seems to be finally getting going.  Our three choices are: State Senate Minority Leader Richard Young, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson, and Indianapolis Architectural Firm Owner and Party/Community activist Jim Schellinger. 

   No huge ideological differences exist between the candidates, and I expect them to all stress typical Democratic bread-and-butter issues — especially Daniels’ attempts to privatize everything in sight.  While the messages may be the same, the messangers are all really different in backgrounds, styles, regions of the state they are from, etc.  At this point, I think I’m leaning towards Schellinger (although I would gladly support any of them).  He’s a fresh new face with a compelling “self made man” story, and has been active in a whole bunch of social and political stuff for some time.  He’s got pretty much all the major Indianapolis people behind him (Mayor Peterson, Congresswoman Carson, several state legislators and local labor organizations), and his website says that as of earlier this summer, he had over $1 million cash on hand (not sure how much of that is his own money).

   Not to be my typically pessimistic self, but beating Mitch is not going to be easy.  He seems to have rebounded a little bit from when he was at his most unpopular, but there still is so much in his record he can be called on, especially in out-state Indiana.  We just need to be united around the best person to lead the party.  So if any of the candidates are reading this, PLEASE PLAY NICE WITH EACH OTHER!!! (They all have so far).  Here in Indiana, our Gov and LG run together, and I think a Schellinger/Thompson ticket might be really good.

9. obviously, indiana is a conservative state where a democrat with traditional democratic positions has a hard time winning. the two democrats who’ve won the governorship recently – Evan Bayh and Frank OBannon, were part of almost legenedary Indiana political families and OBannon made a name for himself supporting the death penalty.  the two kinds of candidates seen as strong in red states are like the above examples or compelling leaders with military or business background who can appeal to independents without a record that independents won’t like.

   Ms. Long-Thompson seems like a fine candidate, but she is not a legend in Indiana and has in fact lost 2 congressional campaigns and one senate race.  She also has a congressional record.  From my outsider reading – it looks like Indiana democratic leaders think that Mr. Schellinger’s outsider business experience would make him a stronger candidate in this red state.

   I’m not sure if he IS the strongest candidate, but I can certainly detect concern about Ms. Long-Thompson and I don’t see that you can dismiss Mr. Schellinger as a “party activist” or “unknown architect.”

   Desperate democrats worried about redistiricting in 2010-12 will vote for whoever wins the primary.  Who will the conservative independents of Indiana vote for?

10. Does anyone have a source listing the congressional primary dates and filing deadlines?

    I have not been able to find one and started looking them up state by state.

    These dates appear to be set in some states, but not in others.

    Maybe this information could be added to the Wiki.  Or, it could be kept in a separate file.

    1. I think you’re absolutely right that it will be conservative Independents deciding this race.  Any Democrat whose last name is not Bayh is going to get absolutely crushed in the Indianapolis suburbs (the donut counties around Indy).  Outside of that, there are opportunities to win over conservatives who typically vote Republican.  We need the people who voted Bush in 2004, but then voted for Ellsworth, Hill, or Donnelly in 2006.

       I certainly understand ArkDem’s concerns about Schellinger expressed up-thread.  He would be a potentially risky candidate that could either be a star or a disaster.  Long-Thompson has the experience, and is from a very Republican part of the state.  Young has even more experience, and is from the far south (actually represents the same district in the State Senate that Frank O’Bannon held) — and that’s the part of the state that still sometimes votes as a region.  I guess I’m saying all three of them have strengths and potential liabilities — and that’s why I’m not firmly committing to anyone just yet.

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