It is nice to be the Majority again. One of the main reasons Democrats are back in the Majority is that they were able to put a lot more races into contention then were the Republicans. It is vitally important that we keep this playing field imbalance, so that we can continue to be in and expand our Majority. It is my contention, that at least one quarter of House Republicans remain vulnerable today. This statement is even truer if the Republicans were to nominate a true social conservative for President in 2008. Democrats need to compete as if we were behind rather than ahead 15 seats. Being in the Majority makes everything easier for us, and everything harder for them. We also may see a large group of retirements, none of which should catch us off guard. Which is why the advantage must be pressed. It is also important to note that challengers help force legislators to vote with their constituencies on the hopefully popular Democratic legislation we put forward. Rather than having to water down our legislation for Bipartisanship, we can threaten defeat to those members who go against popular sentiment in their districts. Here is my comprehensive list of seats Democrats could still gain as well, as the criteria by which the decisions were reached. Also the currently uncalled races are omitted.
Under 55
All Republican members of Congress who received 55% or of their vote must be consider vulnerable they are listed by How Democratic the District voted in 2004 Presidential race. Those that were not targeted this time receive a *
CT 4 Chris Shays
IL 10 Mark Kirk
PA 6 Jim Gerlach
NY 25 Jim Walsh
PA 15 Charlie Dent *
VA 11 Tom Davis*
OH 1 Steve Chabot
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg *
NV 3 Jon Porter
PA 3 Phil English*
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter *
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson
IL 6 Peter Roskam
AZ 1 Rick Renzi
MI 8 Mike Rogers
MI 7 Tim Walberg*
IL 11 Jerry Weller *
CA 50 Brain Bilbray
NY 26 Tom Reynolds
NY 29 Randy Kuhl
NJ 5 Scott Garrett *
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
NV 2 Dean Heller
VA 2 Thelma Drake
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave
NE 2 Lee Terry *
CA 4 John Doolittle
KY 4 Geoff Davis
KY 2 Ron Lewis
IN 3 Mark Souder
ID 1 Bill Sali
NE 3 Adrian Smith
All Republicans from district Where John Kerry got 45% of the vote or More [listed by State excluding those were a Democrat held the Republican to less than 55%] Their Re-election Percent next to name
DE AL Mike Castle 57%
FL 10 Bill Young 66%
FL 18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 62%
FL 24 Tom Feeney 58%
IA 4 Tom Latham 57%
MI 6 Fred Upton 61%
MN 3 Jim Ramstad 65%
NJ 2 Frank LoBiondo 65 %
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 59%
NY 3 Peter King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella 57%
NY 23 Bob McHugh 63%
OH 3 Mike Turner 59%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14 Steve LaTourette
OH 16 Ralph Regula 59%
PA 18 Tim Murphy 58%
WI 1 Paul Ryan 63%
Others, The members of Congress who are potentially vulnerable for other reasons:
AK AL Don Young
MT AL Dennis Rehberg
CO 6 Tom Tancredo
VA 10 Frank Wolf [ possible retirement]
IL 14 Dennis Hastert[Possible retirement]
CA 26 David Dreier
A large amount of Terry’s 55% was because of the strong campaign of his challenger, Jim Esch. He is likely running again in 2008. He ran his campaign on entirely individual contributions, refusing to take any PAC money.
Frank LoBiondo-R was a ’94 entry who broke his term limit pledge this year. He received last minute nominal opposition this year because Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew-D-Cape May decided not to make a run. This District, which includes Atlantic County has been trending Dem including at the local office level. Van Drew is a proven vote getter in a red district. NJ Dems were focused on getting Menendez elected that also was a factor in Lo Biondo being returned to office with 62% of the vote.
However, the District is rated Cook D+4 and has been carried by Gore, Corzine & Menendez. Kerry narrowly lost here.
MI-07 is the top Michigan target. Walberg is a weak candidate, and he can be taken out with a decently funded Democrat with some name ID.
MI-09 is a legitimate target, because the district is getting more Democratic. A well-funded challenger could beat Knollenberg – also he might opt to retire next time since he’s lost his cushy approps seat. It is a very expensive media market though (Detroit).
MI-11 could be a target, a well funded candidate with decent name recognition could beat McCotter in a good Dem year.
In MI-08 we out-performed due to the strengths of our candidate. We can’t win this district without a great candidate and lots of money, due to its Republican tilt.
I wrote about this over at mydd: http://www.mydd.com/…
This is something we need to examine to see if it was effective enough to give Gerlach the win. Early results tend to be top heavy from Montgomery County, which leans democratic, while the Chester Co. and Berk Co. results come in later in the evening. Even a slight change in the urban Latino voting pattern from around Reading (Berks Co.) PA could be enough for the margin of victory.
Turner is a hard nut to crack. The best year to take him was this one when one could gain maximum traction from his rubber stamping of the war and lack of service on the House Armed Services Committee.
He’s always been a stealth Congressman, restricting his appearances to ones with lots of schoolchildren and puppies. It’s going to be much harder to birddog Bush on him now that everyone’s attention is on the 08 Presidential run. I see this as a very difficult seat to take without a superstar willing to go up against him.
When I talked to Montgomery County Democratic Party Chair Dennis Liebermann about this he indicated that he knew one person that would be perfect to go against Turner, but that they were afraid of taking the plunge.
The ideal candidate that I could see going up against Turner would be a charismatic former automotive worker just back from Iraq. Find him or her and you’ve got yourself a ballgame.
work on the list!
One need only look at how Brown, Strickland (both won) and even Kerry (barely lost) did in the Ohio 14th to see this is a key race to target. It’s an interesting district, with the lower-populated eastern areas actually being more Democratic.
Keys to this race are a mix of strong candidate recruitment and an on-the-ground plan to turn out voters in the light blue Ashtabula and Trumbull counties while also locating those Dems we know are hiding out in the Republican suburbs of Geauga and Summit Counties.
LaTourette is no populist hero. Fact is, not many people actually like him. His district was slightly gerrymandered following his 94 win to help him hold it, but it’s still tredning away from his favor, as the western edge suburbs near Cleveland also slowly turn bluer.
Wasn’t called. I am going to go through a make up a new only 50 seat long target list, rest assured WA 8 will be on it.