The first reporting deadline for the special election to replace deceased Rep. Paul Gilmor (R) was yesterday, and the big story is that ideological extremist State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) has a large Club for Growth-generated cash advantage over the conservative but more pragmatic State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green), whose father preceded Gillmor and who is leading in the GOP primary according to the limited polling data available. On the Democratic side, third-time candidate Robin Weirauch (D-Napoleon) is far back in fund-raising but has received a recent boost from unions, and she faces no serious primary opposition to deplete her war chest. The primary is set for regular general election day, November 6th.
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Buehrer reported total fund-raising after refunds of $256,017.00, less than the “more than $260,000” he had told the Toledo Blade to expect. Of that amount, $13,000 is from PACs and 60% of the rest is from individuals whose contributions are earmarked as relating to the Club for Growth, and almost all of them non-residents. Buehrer’s cash-on-hand is $188,217.97. His campaign has been buttressed by large independent TV buys by Club for Growth, attacking Latta as “tax happy” despite a generally anti-tax voting record.
Latta reported $238,582 in total contributions, 90% of them Ohio residents, with $23,050 from PACs. Latta has spent more than Buehrer, leaving only $86,485.36 as cash-on-hand on his report. However, today’s Toledo Blade reports that Latta’s current cash on hand is actually $150,185, attributable in large part to loaning himself $50,000. Of course, Latta sees a positive message in the out-of-state/in-state contrast (quotes from the Blade story):
“Not only do [local Ohioans] contribute, but they’ve got relatives and friends within the district,” Mr. Latta said. “It’s a big advantage for the folks at home to support you.” …
“What connection do these [Club for Growth] people have to northwest Ohio?” Mr. Latta asked. “Do we want this group to be able to buy an election? I don’t think that’s what voters want.”
Republicans Mike Smitley (R-Van Wert), Mark Hollenbaugh (R-Bowling Green), and Fred Pieper (R-Paulding) did not raise enough money to require filing.
On the Democratic side, Weirauch reported taking in $40,354.89 in contributions, of which $4,750 is from Democratic party committees and $2,200 is from PACs. Over $19,000 is from individual contributions too small to require itemization. She reported $26,845.17 cash-on-hand, but the Blade reports that she received an additional $11,000 from unions after the filing deadline, so at the moment she has $37,845 on hand. “I’m very enthusiastic about our fund-raising and I’m confident we’ll have the resources we need,” Weirauch told the Blade. Wierauch’s primary opponent George Mays, who is self employed in the karaoke and disc jockey business, did not raise enough to require filing.
I’m (pleasantly) surprised by the news about union support for Weirauch, as I had heard that they were leery about supporting Wierauch strongly this time around after seeing her lose two prior attempts at the Congressional seat. If their attitude has changed, it has to be due to the nastiness of the GOP primary fight between Buehrer and Latta (extraordinarily negative for this staid, largely rural district), and perhaps the impressive ground-game effort displayed by the Weirauch camp, both tending to improve her prospects in the general election.
I’m sure that Weirauch would decline to answer the question of which GOP front-runner she’d rather face, but in my mind it would unquestionably be Buehrer, whose ideological extremism and out-of-state support would surely be negatives to moderate and independent voters in the general election (set for December 11th). With his larger war chest and more help from PACs like Club for Growth, Buehrer could conceivably make that come true, although Latta still seems to me the candidate to beat on the GOP side.
I was going to post something about this myself.
A few points about this race:
1.A Poli Sci 101 student could tell ya that with the INCREDIBLE negative campaigns that Latta and Buehrer are running, interest in this race has absolutely cratered. And although there aren’t any campaigns in recent history that are meaningfully comparable, turnout is going to be DISMAL.
2. Latta “cooked the books” somewhat by donating $50,000 to his own campaign.
3. Every poll that I have seen says that Latta will basically limp to “victory.”
4. In the unlikely event that Buehrer wins, I wonder if the CTG and the other flaming out of state wingnut groups will continue to funnel zillions of dollars to him?
5. No, Robin Weirauch is not setting the world on fire with her fund raising (which has never been strong) but now that she is the presumptive nominee (she briefly faced a legitimate primary challenger who has now dropped out of the race) the pace of donations has already picked up. Particularly since she “ran the table” in terms of county Party endorsements. (You have to remember that there are counties in this District where there is virtually no meaningful, active Democratic Party infrastructure…)
Is this a “conservative” District? Yes.
BUT
I have seen polling which shows a TOTAL AND COMPLETE disconnect between what these neo-con clowns are bloviating about and what the voters of NW Ohio actually care about.
I would urge progressive groups to think long and hard about supporting Robin in this special election. After all, if they REALLY care so much about electing “good Democrats” she’s the gal– anti-war, pro-choice, you name it.
It may be a mixed blessing for Weirauch that George Mays dropped out of the primary; a contested primary might have been her best shot at getting Emily’s List interested in backing her now that the seat is open.