Author: Crisitunity

Here’s Dave Reichert’s conundrum. On the one hand, he needs money. Cycle after cycle, he’s being constantly outraised by Darcy Burner. But there’s lots of free money out there available from Republican-leaning lobbyists, including from the mysterious Club 218, who organized a fundraiser for Reichert right before the August recess. Some of Club 218’s members are involved in defense industry lobbying, including:

Roll Call recently listed some of Club 218’s members, including Mike Chappell, a lobbyist for the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. at Fierce, Isakowitz and Blalock and Christopher Cox, a D.C. Navigators lobbyist for Alabama Aircraft Industries….

On the other hand, Reichert has 19,000 Boeing employees in his district. You might consider Boeing to be a major parochial interest for anyone who represents WA-08, and thus not expect someone who barely won last time to do anything that would piss off any of those Boeing workers. Like, say, hobnob with EADS, the parent company of French Freedom airplane maker Airbus and Boeing’s competition in the ginormous air tanker contract dispute:

EADS is teamed with Northrop Grumman in the tanker competition, to assemble the tanker in Mobile, Ala.

Today the Seattle Times is reporting that while EADS lobbyist Chappell didn’t give Reichert a check at the fundraiser, yesterday he gave Reichert $500. (Sensing a loser on his hands in the wake of the Politico story, Reichert has refused to accept the money.)

I’ve been trying to think of an analogy that might help contextualize this for non-Seattle-area residents, but am not having much luck, simply because there aren’t too many industries that are controlled by a duopoly, where the two competing companies each have a strong regional identity. Maybe if an Atlanta-area representative took a check from Pepsi… but there’s still no multi-billion-dollar contract decision pending on whether the federal government will stock only Coke or Pepsi in all its vending machines. So think of it this way: what would the reaction in WI-08 be if Steve Kagen was kissing up to a lobbyist from the Minnesota Vikings?

Dino Rossi has been going to great lengths to hide his conservative nature in the Washington gubernatorial race: starting with deferring all questions about issues that are sure-fire losers in a blue state (like abortion, always deferred with an “I’m not running on that issue“), and even going so far as to ditch the entire Republican label in favor of the “GOP Party“.

Rossi has also taken extreme measures to keep Democratic cameramen out of his events (to the extent of roping off large swaths of public property), in order to avoid the fate that befell George Allen two years ago almost to the day. Last Thursday Rossi was making an appearance at the Seattle Police Guild headquarters to receive the Guild’s endorsement, and Democratic cameraman Kelly Akers showed up to join other photographers inside the Guild building. Rossi did not get the chance to welcome his friend Akers here, or welcome him to America and the real world of Washington. Instead, off-duty police officers providing security for the event roughed up Akers and forcibly removed him from the event. According to the Seattle Times:

Akers was confronted by three off-duty police officers, and he says one or more grabbed him and pushed him out of the building. Once outside they continued to argue as the officers held Akers in what he described as a “submission hold.”

That’s just current Rossi campaign policy, apparently:

“We don’t allow them in to collect attack video,” Rossi spokeswoman Jill Strait said.

Horse’s Ass has YouTube video of the confrontation, and also, as an amusing compare-and-contrast, video of the rough reception that Rossi’s trackers get when they show up at Christine Gregoire events. As Goldy puts it:

Jesus Christ… they did everything but offer him milk and cookies.

Basswood Research for Sean Parnell (8/5, likely voters):

Sean Parnell (R): 42

Don Young (R-inc): 38

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Last week we saw a poll for the GOP primary in the Alaska House race from Ivan Moore that had Young up by a solid 8-point margin. The Parnell camp counters with its own internal poll showing him beating Young by 4 points. The sample was taken on Aug. 5, so this is post-Trooper-gate.

The poll doesn’t appear to test the various configurations for the general election. The primary will be held Aug. 26.

In other somewhat-related grumpy-old-corrupt-guys-from-Alaska news, the feds are fighting Ted Stevens’ attempts to change the venue of his trial from Washington DC to Alaska, claiming the unlikelihood of finding an impartial jury. This is important, because a) any delay makes it less likely the trial will be resolved before Election Day, and b) Stevens will be able to campaign in his off-hours if the trial is in Alaska, while he can’t if he’s stuck in DC.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Russ Warner (7/15-16, likely voters):

Russ Warner (D): 37

David Dreier (R-inc.): 49

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here’s a poll from CA-26, a race that got some initial enthusiasm earlier in the year but hasn’t received much attention lately. This is an R+4 district that takes in the affluent parts of the San Gabriel Valley between Los Angeles and San Bernardino; it’s one of the few districts in California that qualifies as a swing district, and one where Dreier hasn’t broken out of the mid-50s in the last few elections despite drawing third-tier opposition.

The poll is an internal poll commissioned by Dem candidate Russ Warner. Unlike many internal polls, this one seems pretty plausible: long-term incumbent Dreier is up by a solid margin, but not to the extent that the race is completely locked down. The race tightens to 47-44 when candidates’ bios are read.

SSP rates this race as Likely Republican.

Ivan Moore Research (7/18-22, likely voters):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 52

Don Young (R-inc.): 37

Don Wright (I): 7

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 40

Sean Parnell (R): 43

Don Wright (I): 5

(n=505)

Lost in all the hubbub from a couple weeks ago when several polls showed Mark Begich opening up a huge lead on Ted Stevens (even before the Stevens indictment) was that, in the fine print, Ivan Moore also polled Alaska’s House seat as well. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz leads corruption-scented incumbent Don Young by a sizable margin but barely loses to comparatively clean Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

The good news for Berkowitz: the primary matchups are also polled, and this shows Young with an edge over Parnell. The poll was taken just as Trooper-gate was breaking (in fact, that’s one of the problems with polling over multiple days: Trooper-gate was significantly more broken on the 22nd than on the 18th), so it may show Parnell getting hit with some Palin blowback. He may be in an even worse position now, as he’s taken a decidedly low-profile approach since the scandal surfaced. The primary is August 26.

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54

Diane Benson (D): 25

Don Wright (D?): 5

(n=284)

Don Young (R-inc.): 46

Sean Parnell (R): 38

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 6

(n=250)

Special thanks to Ivan Moore for sharing these numbers with the Swing State Project. The full results are available below the fold.

Rasmussen (8/6, likely voters, 7/9, 6/9 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (49, 50)

Dino Rossi (R): 43 (43, 43)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I’ve repeatedly proclaimed my boredom with the stability of this race (howzabout a new MO-Gov poll instead now that we’ve had the primary?). And maybe the blogger code of ethics should demand that I recuse myself from reporting this poll since I was actually one of the persons polled. Nevertheless, here’s the new Rasmussen: a little more downward drift for Gregoire, Rossi still stuck in park at 43. It’s 50-46 with leaners pushed.

The same sample gives Obama a 52-40 lead, so Gregoire is underperforming the top of the ticket a bit (again). Given Rossi’s inability to increase his share, though, inertia might be enough to carry her over the finish line (again).

In the last few hours since we last checked in on the race in TN-09 (where the primary is tomorrow):

* Nikki Tinker was declared Worst Person in the World by Keith Olbermann. (If anyone can recall any other Democrat receiving this, um, honor, please let us know in the comments!)

* Nikki Tinker, or at least her ad, was condemned by EMILY’s List, who had previously endorsed her.

EMILY’s List president Ellen Malcolm issued a statement Wednesday evening condemning Tinker’s most recent ad.  The group, which endorses Democratic women who favor abortion rights, has been Tinker’s most prominent backer.

“We were shocked to see the recent ads run by the Nikki Tinker for Congress campaign. We believe the ads are offensive and divisive,”

(The ad has been scrubbed from YouTube by the Tinker campaign; unfortunately, the embed below no longer works.)

* Steve Cohen forcibly removed a cameraman from his house who had barged in uninvited to Cohen’s hastily-called news conference at Cohen’s house to address the religion-baiting ad… and the cameraman is allegedly pressing ‘assault’ charges. (Video from the local Memphis Fox affiliate is available here: http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/my… The cameraman is an Armenian-American activist and documentary filmmaker who has been stalking Cohen all week; he’s not officially affiliated with the Tinker camp, but Armenian groups have given more than $30K to the Tinker campaign because of Cohen’s opposition to the bill to call the World War I-era slaughter of Armenians genocide (and thus infuriate Turkey).

Small legalistic note: there’s a big difference between some sorehead pressing charges, and the county DA actually following through on them (which I guess we’ll find out about that tomorrow). The video shows Cohen escorting the guy out the door with hand firmly on his arm and giving him a shove out the door for good measure; since the cameraman was essentially trespassing, this isn’t likely to amount to anything.

Also (h/t to BruinKid): the documentarian, Peter Musurlian, was previously a GOP operative, working as the district director for Carlos Moorhead, who until 1996 represented the Pasadena-area district now represented by Adam Schiff.

* UPDATE (Thursday morning): Barack Obama issued a statement condemning the ad (although not Tinker by name).

“These incendiary and personal attacks have no place in our politics, and will do nothing to help the good people of Tennessee,” Obama said in a statement. “It’s time to turn the page on a politics driven by negativity and division so that we can come together to lift up our communities and our country.”

Yesterday I discussed the ad from Nikki Tinker, the challenger in the TN-09 primary on Thursday, which made a visual linkage between Steve Cohen and a KKK rally. I assumed this was the Tinker campaign’s closing argument, ending the campaign on the most distasteful note possible.

Well, I was wrong. They’ve released another ad. In a race that’s been about gender and race, they’re back where they started: religion.

CHILD’S VOICE: “Now I lay me down to sleep…” ANNCR: “Who is the real Steve Cohen anyway?” CHILD’S VOICE: “I pray the Lord my soul to keep…” ANNCR: “While he’s in our churches, clapping his hands and tapping his feet…” CHILD’S VOICE: “If I should die before I wake…” ANNCR: “He is the only senator who thought our kids shouldn’t be allowed to pray in school.” CHILD’S VOICE: I pray the Lord my soul to take. ANNCR: “Congressman, sometimes apologies just aren’t enough.” TINKER: “I’m Nikki Tinker, and I approve this message.”

Note the narrator’s remarkably ham-fisted emphasis on “our” churches. (Cohen is Jewish.) Nice anti-Semitic dog-whistle… although it seems the Tinker campaign accidentally grabbed the bullhorn instead of the dog-whistle on the way out the door.

There’s time for one last TV spot before Thursday’s primary in TN-09, so here’s the closing statement released yesterday by Nikki Tinker, who’s challenging incumbent Steve Cohen in the primary in this Memphis-based district.

As you’ll recall, Steve Cohen is a white Jewish man, and a solid progressive, who represents the mostly-African-American 9th, having won the 2006 primary to succeed Harold Ford Jr. via a split black vote. Tinker (who lost to Cohen in 2006) is running to his right, but challenging him on the basis of race, gender, religion, and everything but the issues.

Apparently, Cohen, while a member of Memphis’ Center City Commission, voted against removal of a statue of Confederate General (and KKK founder) Nathan Bedford Forrest from a city park. The ad features a local pastor criticizing Cohen’s decision… while running unrelated stock footage of a KKK rally in the background.

Memphis’ major paper, the Commercial-Appeal, rightly took Tinker to task for her last-minute appeal, which can’t even be described as lowest-common-denominator since it’s mathematically impossible to divide something by zero:

Beyond all that, it’s unfortunate that the Tinker campaign would evoke the KKK image in Memphis. Many residents still have lingering resentment over a 1998 Klan rally Downtown that turned violent when anti-Klan protesters were tear gassed by police and several windows were broken.

Apparently, none of that has stopped Tinker supporters from framing Thursday’s election as a black-white contest or a division between African-Americans and Jews.

The candidate’s desperate efforts to paint Cohen with the broad brush of racist imagery may win a few votes to her cause. Those who know Cohen will see through the smear.

Internal polling for Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche shows that he has a big advantage over his three challengers in the Shreveport-based, R+7 open seat. How big an advantage? Well, 13 to 19 points… but the release of the poll doesn’t give specific percentages of votes or tell which margin applies to which GOP challenger. Here’s what we know:

When paired with each of these three opponents on a trial heat, Paul Carmouche defeats all three, with leads ranging from 13 to 19 points.  Also, Independent candidate Chester “Catfish” Kelley holds 5% of the vote in all three match-ups.

The poll gives Carmouche very high name recognition (60%) and a 4-to-1 favorable ratio. The same poll also goes into some more detail about the Republican primary, which has three credible candidates (physician John Fleming, trucking company executive Chris Gorman, and former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson).

Kitchens Group for Paul Carmouche (7/16-21, likely voters):

John Fleming (R): 27

Chris Gorman (R): 20

Jeff Thompson (R): 14

(MoE: ±4%)

Result-wise, this matches Fleming’s own polling (although Fleming gives himself a much bigger margin of victory):

Southern Media & Opinion Research for John Fleming (7/25-27, likely voters):

John Fleming (R): 43

Chris Gorman (R): 17

Jeff Thompson (R): 15

(MoE: ±5%)

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.