Author: DavidNYC

We still don’t know the date of the special election to fill GA-10, but the field is already taking shape. From CQ Politics, the GOP side:

Republican state Sen. Jim Whitehead announced Monday that he is a candidate for the not-yet-scheduled special election in Georgia’s 10th District, ensuring that there will be competition between politically experienced candidates for the seat left vacant by the death of veteran Republican Rep. Charlie Norwood. …

Whitehead was preceded into the race by a fellow Republican state senator, Ralph T. Hudgens, who lost to Norwood in the 1994 Republican House primary. …

Republican Bob Young, a former mayor of Augusta, is considered a potential candidate. The Athens-Banner Herald reported Monday that Willie Green, a former National Football League player who was born in the district, is interested in running either as a Republican or an independent.

Former Athens-Clarke County Mayor Doc Eldridge is also considering entering the race. Eldridge, who ran for mayor as a Democrat, told local news outlets that he will run as a Republican if he does indeed enter the election.

And the Dem half:

One Democrat moved swiftly to establish a place in the special election contest: Terry Holley, a small-business owner who took 33 percent of the vote in a lopsided loss to Norwood last November. …

Former Athens-Clarke County Commissioner Tom Chasteen is rumored to be weighing a bid, as well as state Rep. Alan Powell and lawyer David Bell, who as the 1996 Democratic challenger gave Norwood the closest race of his House career, holding him to 52 percent.

It’s worth noting that Norwood was a member of the GOP class of 1994 (knocking off one-term incumbent Don Johnson, Jr.). So his relatively weak performance against Bell in 1996 came when he was at his most vulnerable. However, Norwood outspent Bell nearly 3-1 that year (scroll to bottom). On the flipside, this district was a lot more Dem back then – Bill Clinton won it both times, in fact. (It had a PVI of R+1.7 then, but it’s R+12.7 now.) So I don’t know how strongly one can rate Bell’s performance.

Anyhow, got any opinions on any of these candidates?

UPDATE (James): According to CQPolitics, June 19 is the likely date for this election.

Alright, another installment in our occasional trivia series. In 1994, no GOP incumbents lost in either the House or the Senate, much like the Dem performance in 2006. Needless to say, years like that are unusual.

So, all you election wizards, tell us: In the intervening years (ie, 1996-2004), how many incumbent Senators and Representatives lost their re-election bids, in both parties? This range includes two rounds of redistricting (nationwide in 2002 and Texas in 2004), but go ahead and include those names in your lists as well.

If you can tell us a little bit about why the incumbents lost, so more the better!

Even from his sickbed, James brings us the latest from around the Internets. What, pray tell, have you got?

From the Cook Political Report (top item on front page):

Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana.  John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true.  Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.

None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.

Breaux is certainly no favorite of mine – indeed, it’s probably hard for most movement progressives to feel too warmly about him. However, it’s not as though I carry a torch for Blanco, and his entrance into this race would be an immediate game-changer. He’d transform this from an uphill battle to a likely hold, and if he won a second term, he’d be around for redistricting. (LA is a state where, if we’re willing to play hardball, we can pick up at least a seat or two with friendlier lines.)

If this is true, this is big.

UPDATE: Much more here from LouisianaGirl.

P.S. The Race Tracker Wiki could use some updating.

Luis says: Let’s you and him infight!

So let’s go back to rubbing in the shortcomings of Republicans. I think we all missed pointing out this Grand Junction Sentinel story saying that former Rep. Scott McInnis of Grand Junction is trying to ease former Rep. Bob Schaffer of Ft. Collins out of the Senate race so that Colorado Republicans can avoid a divisive primary like the one between Bob Beauprez and Marc Holtzman in the governor’s race last year.

Trouble is, the Republican primary before that one was the 2004 Senate primary, where Bob Schaffer was the lone candidate before Governor Owens recruited Pete Coors to come into the race. Schaffer supporters, which include the Colorado Springs fundamentalist faction, feel that the governor and state Republican party apparatus unfairly tipped the scales in the primary to Coors. And, the fact that Coors went down to defeat to Ken Salazar only makes the bitterness worse – I’m sure Schaffer’s supporters feel he could have done a better job in the general election than Coors did. (I think they’re wrong, but there’s no way to prove it.)

So I don’t think it’s very likely that Schaffer can be sweet talked into clearing the field for McInnis. And we might have another bitter Republican primary fight between the candidate with the perception of being the anointed favorite versus a darling of the religious right. Pass the popcorn.

I love me some good internal squabbling – when it happens on the GOP side. Of course, you never can tell when a primary is going to be a blessing or a curse. Sometimes, you wind up with a battle-tested, more experienced nominee with greater name rec (example: John Hall). Other times, you wind up with a total train wreck, trailing negative vibes and ugly baggage all over the place (example: Randy Graf).

Luis seems to think we might very well be in for fight night. Here’s hoping he’s right!

An interesting development:

Unwilling to wait for the courts to rule on the disputed Sarasota elections, a key member of the U.S. Senate is launching an investigation into the 13th Congressional District race.

U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., said she will ask the investigative arm of Congress, the Government Accountability Office, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology to conduct a “top-to-bottom investigation” to determine what caused 18,000 Sarasota County undervotes in the race for Congress.

A GAO investigation could definitely lap the current court case brought by Dem Christine Jennings. Right now, we’re still waiting on an appeal of the trial court judge’s ruling that Jennings can’t get review ES&S‘s voting machine source code. At first I thought we’d find out this month, but now Jennings’ lawyers are saying we won’t hear any earlier than March.

But with Feinstein’s newly aggressive posture, we  might not even have to wait on the appeals process: The Senate can issue subpoenas to crack this stubborn nut open. Then the real fun begins.

P.S. It’s also notable that this pressure is coming from the Senate, rather than the House, which has said it prefers to wait until the court case runs its course. My sense, based on tiny hints in the article linked above, is that the Senate has a freer hand here, since (as Feinstein is doing) it can frame the issue as purely one of election integrity, rather than appearing to try to increase its majority by an extra seat.

(Thanks to ca democrat.)

Okay ramblers, let’s get ramblin’.

From the Evans-Novak Political Report (via e-mail – no link):

While some discuss a fourth election contest between Rep. Baron Hill (D), and former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R), Hill may actually be preparing for a run against Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). For Hill, the equation is simple: a weakened Republican governor in a mostly conservative state, with no other obviously strong Democratic candidates in the wings. Although Republican polls smile on Daniels, nearly everyone attributes the failure of GOP congressional candidates last year to anger over some of Daniels’s official acts, such as the privatization of the state’s Northern Toll Road and the shift to Daylight Saving Time.

The Democratic mayors of Fort Wayne and Indianapolis have decided against entering the race, as has Sen. Evan Bayh (D). That leaves only State Senate Minority Leader Richard Young (D).

Meanwhile, Hill’s own conservative district could give him trouble again in the presidential election year — as it did unexpectedly in 2004 — should he try to stay in the House. This will particularly be the case if someone like Hillary Clinton heads the Democratic ticket.

Should Hill decide to run for governor, Sodrel would be heavily favored to take back this seat against any comer.

One additional detail to note is that Hill had by far the weakest showing of the three Democrats who beat Republican incumbents in Indiana last year. He won with just 50% of the vote, and indeed, a Libertarian candidate took nearly 10,000 votes – just a shade more than Hill’s margin over Sodrel.

So I do agree that this might be a possible “escape route” for Hill, and that it would probably come at the cost of his current seat. However, I’m not sure Novak is right about Daniels’ current approval ratings. In November, he was 41st in net approval among all governors according to SUSA, at 43-49. And it’s worth noting that four of the guys who were less popular than Daniels no longer hold office.

On the flipside, a more recent poll puts Daniels at 57-40. But be aware that the firm that took this poll, Public Opinion Strategies, is a Republican outfit. And while Daniels didn’t commission this poll (the Indiana Association of Realtors did), he’s been a client of theirs in the recent past. I look forward to seeing SUSA’s next survey to see where things really stand.

Race Tracker pages (feel free to edit as needed): IN-GOV | IN-09.

( – promoted by DavidNYC)

Slow week here at the SSP – I’ve been utterly slammed with work lately. Though, good news: I was just admitted to the bar this week. Not the good kind of bar, but at least the kind that helps me earn a living.

What have you been up to?

UPDATE: Boxer running again in 2010. Guess you can never start too early.

Alright, since you guys proved to be super-geniuses the last time we posed a trivia question, let’s try another – or two, actually:

How many Democratic incumbents who lost in 1994 attempted comebacks in 1996? And how many won?

With news that defeated incumbents like Jeb Bradley (NH-01) and Jim Ryun (KS-02) will seek rematches in 2008, this topic is obviously an important one right now.