12:01AM: IA-01 was just snapped up by Democrats. Feel that blue wave.
11:56PM: Wow. KS-02 just flipped to the Democrats.
11:51PM: Webb pulls ahead by 3,000 votes in VA-Sen! Looks like Dan called it right – so far.
11:47PM: Amazing. In IA-02, Dave Loebsack (D) is 4 points ahead of Jim Leach (R) with 57% reporting.
11:32PM: The fun never ends: PA-04 and AZ-05 have flipped Democratic.
11:25PM: Wow… we actually did it. Democrats have recaptured the House of Representatvies. More pick-ups are on the way. Take a minute and savor it, folks.
11:10PM: Add ’em up on the big board: FL-22, NH-01 (I can’t believe it), NY-24, and IN-09.
11:01PM: More pickups! NC-11, FL-16, CT-05, PA-10, AZ-08 and NY-20!
10:58PM: Gary Trauner is up by 51-45 with 51% reporting in WY-AL.
10:46PM: Oh yeah, and Joe Sestak (D) in PA-07 has been called, too. As an aside, this is a bizarre election.
10:36PM: Zack Space (D) won in OH-18, and did what Francine Busby couldn’t do in June. Atta boy!
10:24PM: I can’t believe it, but with 81% of the vote, Carol Shea-Porter (D) is edging Jeb Bradley by 900 votes!
10:19PM: Paul Hodes wins! He’s about to make a speech. WOW! AWESOME! Put NH-02 on the big board!
10:15PM: Boyda (D) could really do this thing. With 47% of precincts reporting, she’s up by 54-44 over Ryun.
10:05PM: With 27% reporting, Altmire (D) has 57 and Hart (R) has 43 in PA-04. This would be a stunning upset.
9:48PM: Keep your eye on KS-02, where Nancy Boyda (D) is leading Rep. Jim Ryun (R) by a 54-44 margin with 23% reporting.
9:29PM: CNN calls IN-02 for Joe Donnelly. Nice!
9:23PM: CNN calls Yarmuth! Alright! Put KY-03 up on the big board!
9:10PM: With 96% in, John Warmuth (D) is up by 51-48 and 6500 votes over Ann Northup in KY-03.
9:05PM: With 46% reporting, Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) are neck and neck at 50-50 each, with a 500 vote edge for Shea-Porter. No one thought this would be a close race. Holy smokes.
8:47PM: CNN is calling NJ-Sen for Menendez, but last I saw they had Kean leading. Weird. MA-Gov and OH-Gov also called for Dems.
Author: DavidNYC
CT-Sen: Hey, New Yorkers! Ned Needs You!
I just got word from the Lamont campaign that they are in need of help tomorrow in the 4th CD. That’s the part of Connecticut that’s closest to NYC and its suburbs – in fact, much of the district really is a suburb of New York itself. It’s very easy to reach by MetroNorth. So if you don’t already have election day plans – or you had a moment of inspiration and decided you’re gonna call in sick tomorrow – get in touch with the Lamont campaign here:
gmunger@gmail.com-or-
(203) 854-5219
They’ll be answering the phones/checking e-mail all night.
Swing State Project Predictions Pool
(Bumped! Last chance to get your predictions in! – promoted by James L.)
I just created a predictions pool for us over at Predict06.com. Predict06 is a neat site which automates the process of predicting the outcome in sixty-two competitive House and Senate races. The pool feature allows a group (such as Swing State readers) to engage in a bit of friendly competition amongst itself.
So click here to join. All you need to do is create a user account (take five seconds) and you can start making predictions right away. There won’t be any prizes for this pool (unlike our home-grown contest), but you can earn bragging rights. And among the hardcore junkies who hang out here, that’s saying something!
UPDATE (James L.): Predict06 has expanded their playing field by 15 House seats. Get on over there and update your predictions accordingly! Also, I’m really pleased to see that 68 people have joined in on the Swing State Project pool so far. We’ve already cracked the top five pools and are closing in fast on the DailyKos and RedState prediction pages. It’s no secret that Swing State Project readers are some of the sexiest, savviest electoral thinkers on the internet, so let’s prove the CW right by calling these races correctly! Get your predictions in today, because tonight will be the last night that Predict06 will accept your submissions.
NH-02: What Goes Around
“Bass has been the epitome of a congressman who represents his district, more than any other congressman in the history of New Hampshire. It’s not right that the wave of unhappiness with President Bush is affecting him.”
– GOP strategist & McCain advisor Mike Dennehy, Concord Monitor (11/4/2006)
“No matter what Swett does, he can’t hide from his record and and his votes; Dick Swett has voted with Bill Clinton and the liberal Democrats over 90 percent of the time.”
– Gov. Steve Merrill (R-NH), Union Leader (11/4/1994)
Gregg said that liberal Democrats have controlled Congress for about 42 years and voters have a chance to end this rule. Gregg described Swett as a “classic liberal Democrat” who votes with Bill Clinton 90 percent of the time.
– Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), Union Leader (11/4/1994)
“[This election] is a referendum on Dick Swett’s record, which is a record of inconsistency, flip-flops and allegiance to President Clinton, the liberal leadership of the House and outside special interests.”
– Charlie Bass spokesman Lisa Stocklan, Union Leader (11/3/1994)
“This is a bellwether race, and your opponent is saying the same thing 256 other Democrats are saying. You know, they hardly know Clinton – even though Dick Swett has voted with the President 90 percent of the time.”
– Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS), Union Leader (11/1/1994)
In the Concord news conference Bass displayed a marionette with attached strings labled “AFL-CIO” “Bill Clinton” and “PACs,” and accused Swett of being the puppet of special interests.
– Union Leader (10/12/1994)
“Dick Swett cares about Bill Clinton and the liberal Democratic leadership of the House of Representatives more than he cares about the taxpayers of New Hampshire.”
– Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH), Union Leader (10/7/1994)
Also attacking [Rep. Dick] Swett is ex-state Sen. Charles Bass (R), whose TV ads show Swett standing behind Dem gov. candidate Wayne King (“Mr. Property Tax”) and “hugging Bill Clinton.”
– Nashua Telegraph (10/6/1994)
“He calls himself independent. But we in New Hamphsire know Dick Swett is really a rubber stamp for (House Speaker) Tom Foley, for Bill Clinton and for the rest of the Democrats.”
– Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH), Union Leader (10/4/1994)
“I don’t believe the people of the 2d District of New Hampshire believe that Bill Clinton is right 90 percent of the time.”
– Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH), Boston Globe (9/15/1994)
Charles F. Bass, a former State Senator, defeated the Democratic incumbent, Representative Dick Swett, by a small margin, making much of his golden pedigree as the grandson of a former Governor and the son of a former Congressman from the state. Despite being outspent by his opponent, Mr. Bass ran a strong campaign, criticizing his opponent’s ties to President Clinton. (One advertisement showed Mr. Swett and the President embracing.)
– New York Times (11/10/1994)
(Hat-tip to Billmon.)
Don’t Let This Be Us!
We do not want to wake up on Nov. 8th and see this headline – or anything similar – splashed across any newspaper in the country:
Join Al Gore – do MoveOn’s Call for Change. It’s easy as pie. And it’ll help make sure we avoid seeing anything like the above.
(Via Yankee Doodler.)
Nov. 7, 2006 Poll Closing Times & Key Races
(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)
For 2008 poll closing times with map & key races, click here.
Now with color-coded map! A little rough-hewn, but you get the idea (I love David, but I’m afraid we’ll have to keep him away from the crayolas from now on. Here’s a somewhat better-looking map–James L.):
Note: States with two poll closing times are color-coded according to the earlier closing time, except for Oregon, where the majority of the state is in the later time zone. And if you can’t see the map, click here for a mirror link. And just to be clear, these times are all Eastern, NOT local. Also, it looks like voters in some precincts of Indiana will be able to vote until 9pm local.
Below is a list of poll closing times in every state in the nation, plus a selection of key House, Senate and gubernatorial races in 44 of them:
| State | EST | Race(s) to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana (Eastern) | 6:00pm | IN-02, IN-03, IN-07, IN-08, IN-09 |
| Kentucky (Eastern) | 6:00pm | KY-02, KY-03, KY-04 |
| Florida (Peninsula) | 7:00pm | FL-09, FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, FL-24, FL-Gov |
| Georgia | 7:00pm | GA-08, GA-12 |
| Indiana (Western) | 7:00pm | IN-02, IN-03, IN-07, IN-08, IN-09 |
| Kentucky (Western) | 7:00pm | KY-02, KY-03, KY-04 |
| New Hampshire (Townships) | 7:00pm | NH-01, NH-02 |
| South Carolina | 7:00pm | SC-05, SC-Gov |
| Vermont | 7:00pm | VT-AL |
| Virginia | 7:00pm | VA-02, VA-10, VA-Sen |
| North Carolina (Standard) | 7:30pm | NC-08, NC-11, NC-13 |
| Ohio | 7:30pm | OH-01, OH-02, OH-12, OH-15, OH-18, OH-Gov, OH-Sen |
| West Virginia | 7:30pm | WV-01, WV-02 |
| Alabama | 8:00pm | AL-Gov |
| Connecticut | 8:00pm | CT-02, CT-04, CT-05, CT-Sen |
| Delaware | 8:00pm | |
| Florida (Panhandle) | 8:00pm | FL-09, FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, FL-24, FL-Gov |
| Illinois | 8:00pm | IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-Gov |
| Kansas | 8:00pm | KS-02 |
| Maine | 8:00pm | ME-Gov |
| Maryland | 8:00pm | MD-Gov, MD-Sen |
| Massachusetts | 8:00pm | MA-Gov |
| Michigan (Most of state) | 8:00pm | MI-Gov, MI-Sen |
| Mississippi | 8:00pm | |
| Missouri | 8:00pm | MO-Sen |
| New Hampshire (Cities) | 8:00pm | NH-01, NH-02 |
| New Jersey | 8:00pm | NJ-05, NJ-07, NJ-Sen |
| Oklahoma | 8:00pm | |
| Pennsylvania | 8:00pm | PA-04, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-Gov, PA-Sen |
| South Dakota (Eastern) | 8:00pm | SD-Gov |
| Tennessee | 8:00pm | TN-Sen |
| Texas (Eastern) | 8:00pm | TX-14, TX-17, TX-23, TX-32, TX-Gov |
| Arkansas | 8:30pm | AR-Gov |
| North Carolina (Optional) | 8:30pm | NC-08, NC-11, NC-13 |
| Arizona | 9:00pm | AZ-01, AZ-05, AZ-08, AZ-Sen |
| Colorado | 9:00pm | CO-04, CO-05, CO-07, CO-Gov |
| Louisiana | 9:00pm | LA-02, LA-03 |
| Michigan (Western U.P.) | 9:00pm | MI-Gov, MI-Sen |
| Minnesota | 9:00pm | MN-01, MN-02, MN-06, MN-Gov, MN-Sen |
| Nebraska | 9:00pm | NE-01, NE-03 |
| New Mexico | 9:00pm | NM-01 |
| New York | 9:00pm | NY-03, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, NY-Gov |
| Rhode Island | 9:00pm | RI-Gov, RI-Sen |
| South Dakota (Western) | 9:00pm | SD-Gov |
| Texas (Western) | 9:00pm | TX-14, TX-17, TX-21, TX-23, TX-32, TX-Gov |
| Wisconsin | 9:00pm | WI-08, WI-Gov |
| Wyoming | 9:00pm | WY-AL |
| Idaho (Southern) | 10:00pm | ID-01, ID-Gov |
| Iowa | 10:00pm | IA-01 , IA-02, IA-04, IA-Gov |
| Montana | 10:00pm | MT-Sen |
| Nevada | 10:00pm | NV-02, NV-03, NV-Gov, NV-Sen |
| North Dakota (Eastern) | 10:00pm | |
| Oregon (Western) | 10:00pm | OR-Gov |
| Utah | 10:00pm | |
| California | 11:00pm | CA-04, CA-11, CA-50, CA-Gov |
| Hawaii | 11:00pm | |
| Idaho (Panhandle) | 11:00pm | ID-01, ID-Gov |
| North Dakota (Western) | 11:00pm | |
| Oregon (Eastern) | 11:00pm | OR-Gov |
| Washington | 11:00pm | WA-05, WA-08, WA-Sen |
| Alaska (Mainland) | 12:00am | AK-Gov |
| Alaska (Western Aleutians) | 1:00am | AK-Gov |
All times are Eastern. Please note that some states are split across two time zones and consequently have two different poll closing times. I’ve split the affected states up accordingly, which is why there are more than 50 listings.
Also, we haven’t tried to list every single possible race here, just those that we (James & I) feel are potentially interesting. As I say, we’ve confined ourselves just to Congress and the statehouses. Here are some other resources you might want to consult:
• For important Secretary of State races, check out the Secretary of State Project.
• To get a sense of which state legislatures are up for grabs, take a look at this chart from the DLCC (PDF).
• And for a complete list of ballot measures nationwide, this guide from the I & R Institute (PDF) is the definitive source.
If there are any worthy races you’re following that aren’t on this list, please post them in comments, preferably with a link to a site that will be posting the results. (You usually can’t find returns for smaller local races on CNN.) Also, if you notice any errors, please let us know as well.
(Special thanks to the Green Papers, which was the source for all the poll closing times.)
Site Propagation
If you’re reading this entry on the site, then you obviously aren’t having any problems getting here. But the URL switchover is taking time to propagate, so in case you are reading this via an e-mail subscription and can’t get on to the site, please use this direct URL until you can:
The propagation should hopefully complete within twenty-four hours or so. If you know anyone who can’t get on the site by tomorrow night or Friday morning, please shoot me an e-mail.
How To…
A quick how-to guide to some of the new features here at SSP.
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• See all the comments & diaries you’ve written, and make changes to your account: In the “Menu” section, click on “[User ID]’s Page“. This will take you to a whole host of options that’ll let you look at your user history and change your account settings. A couple key things: 1) To add a public e-mail address or signature, click on the “Profile” link. 2) To set your time zone and how many diaries and front-page posts you see, click on “Profile” then “Display Prefs“.
If you have any questions, please just ask. And you can also consult the SoapBlox main hub or the SoapBlox Wiki as well.
Welcome to the SSP Diaries!
This is a test diary. Feel free to post your own!
Welcome to the New & Improved Swing State Project!
Welcome to the new SoapBlox-powered, diary-enabled version of the Swing State Project! If you’re seeing this entry at the top of your screen, that means we’ve just switched over to the new site. Things may look a bit “empty” around here at the moment, but new stories will be appearing soon.
Please feel free to sign up for a new User ID (your old TypeKey IDs won’t work) in the right-hand sidebar. Once you’ve done that, go ahead and start posting diaries! Our only request is that you stick to diaries which relate to the topics that this site covers: campaigns, elections, electoral strategy, polls, etc.
In other words, If you want to write about the Iraq war, you are probably better off doing so at DailyKos. But if you’ve got, say, a poll which shows how the Iraq war is affecting the race in a particular state or district, then by all means post about that here.
No matter what, just go have fun!