Author: DavidNYC

It seems that no one knows what Tom Coburn will do in 2010, and The Hill thinks he might bail:

Coburn’s exit would throw a safe seat into the realm of possibility for Democrats, who have two attractive candidates available in term-limited Gov. Brad Henry and Rep. Dan Boren.

While Bunning took heat for raising a paltry $27,000 in the fourth quarter of 2008, Coburn raised just $19,000 and had far less cash on hand – $55,000 – than any other senator up for reelection next year.

Coburn might in fact have his sights set elsewhere:

One Oklahoma GOP consultant suggested it wouldn’t even be surprising to see Coburn wind up running for governor, despite his having said that he wouldn’t and the presence of an early party favorite in Rep. Mary Fallin (R-Okla.).

I’m skeptical about any Dem chances for picking up the Senate seat. But I’m delighted at the possibility of Tom Coburn just mucking things up in general. If he does wimp out on a re-election bid, the hapless Tom Cole might run to replace him, and he’d be fun to kick around some more even if he won in a romp.

Yet another GOPer looks to bail out of the misery that is life in the House minority:

Rep. J. Gresham Barrett made it official Wednesday: He will be a candidate for South Carolina governor in 2010. The four-term Republican announced his candidacy electronically. He sent an e-mail to supporters linking to a video on his new campaign site, Gresham Barrett for Governor.

Barrett is the first of what is likely to be a crowded field of Republicans vying for the nomination.

Current Gov. Mark Sanford , a Republican, is barred from running for a third term and the open seat has attracted attention from a number of state-level officials on both sides of the aisle.

Nonetheless, a whole passel of Republicans are eager to take Barrett’s place:

But should Barrett attempt to succeed outgoing Gov. Mark Sanford (R) and retire from the House in two years, a legendary name around South Carolina and in Washington, D.C., is expected to surge to the front of the line: Strom Thurmond Jr.

Thurmond, a lawyer in the region and son of the late Senator, undoubtedly would have universal name recognition with conservative voters and is widely known to have expressed interest in Barrett’s seat in the past. The late statesman’s son, a former federal prosecutor, did not return a message left at his Aiken, S.C., law firm.

Behind Thurmond, state Reps. Rex Rice and Michael Thompson also are considered possible Republican primary frontrunners in the district, which was previously represented by now-Sen. Lindsey Graham (R). Rice, a wealthy local businessman, also could devote significant resources to his campaign and has the requisite ties with the local business community. …

State Sen. Greg Ryberg, who sank millions of dollars of his own money on losing a state treasurer’s race two years ago, also is considered a 2010 GOP ballot possibility in Barrett’s district. State Sen. Tom Alexander (R) is rumored to covet higher office as well.

The district, though, is brutal territory for Dems. Until 1994, this seat was actually held by Democrat Butler Derrick, who apparently had the good sense to get out of the way of Hurricane Gingrich. The presidential numbers tell a painful tale: after going for Bush 34-66 in 2004, the needle barely moved to 35-64 in 2008. Given that SC as a whole moved eight points in our direction, standing still qualifies as falling behind. Sorry, open seat fans.

This strikes me as hilarious:

Here at CPAC a well placed source with knowledge of the Republican Senate Committee plans tells me that Larry Kudlow is “considering” a Senate run against embattled Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd.

Larry Kudlow has a long track record of being wrong about just about everything. Just last week, for instance, he was addled enough to say of Obama’s mortage plan that “the people who win here are Fannie and Freddie. The Americans who paid their taxes on time and their mortgages on time get hurt” – even though Fannie and Freddie are, of course, now owned by the US government. And that’s just one example among many, many more – check out Atrios’s archives for all kinds of gems.

I’m sure John Cornyn strongly prefers former Congressmam Rob Simmons for this race, and I tend to think this Kudlow rumor won’t go anywhere. If nothing else, the guy has a pretty cush life and a… complicated past. But I’d love to see Kudlow make a fool of himself on the campaign trail.

A fascinating – and long overdue – development today:

The District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act overcame a major hurdle Tuesday, passing a Senate cloture vote by 62-34. …

The bill would give the Democratic-heavy District a voting Representative in the House and Republican-leaning Utah an extra seat that it just barely missed adding in the 2000 census. …

If the House and Senate versions pass each chamber as is, the bill would have to go to conference in order to iron out some differences – mainly, the fact that the Senate bill gives Utah a new district seat, while the House gives the state an at-large seat.

In practical terms, if this bill passes and survives constitutional scrutiny, DC will undoubtedly elect a Democrat. As for the Utah “sweetener” (necessary to ensure Republican votes), the question is whether the state legislature would use the opportunity to screw Jim Matheson out of his seat. The House solution neatly avoids this problem and would be my preferred outcome. Note that while no state with more than one representative utilizes at-large districts, there’s nothing forbidding it, and many states have done so in the past.

In any event, an at-large seat would probably only be temporary, as Utah is almost assured of gaining a new seat after the 2010 census. The enlargement of the House to 437 seats, however, would be permanent. And, bizarrely enough, this would mean the likely end of potential ties in the electoral college:

[T]he Constitution says that each state gets the same number of electoral votes as it has seats in Congress (in both the House and the Senate). So, you’d think that two more members of Congress would mean two more electoral votes, increasing the Electoral College from 538 members to 540.

However, the 23th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which granted the District voting rights in presidential elections, stipulates that the District only gets as many electoral votes as the state with the fewest. Even if this legislation is enacted (and upheld by the courts), Washington, D.C. will still only have three electoral votes.

As a result, the Electoral College will only increase by one vote, not two. That means that the Electoral College’s members would add up to 539, which, tragically, is an odd number. When you have an odd number of voters, it’s always tricky to end up with a tie vote. Unless a third-party candidate took some electoral votes, one candidate would have a majority.

Incidentally, Election Data Services’ latest study (PDF, p. 14) variously shows CA, NC, OR, and WA in the 436th and 437th slots, meaning one of those states would likely pick up an extra seat (or in the case of California, not lose a seat) in 2012.

UPDATE: A CRS report (PDF) suggests that Congress might have outlawed at-large districts – but because Congress has the power to set such rules (under the Constitution), it can do as it pleases vis-a-vis Utah. The same report also says that such a district would not violate one person, one vote jurisprudence.

This could be truly delightful if it pans out:

Well-placed sources close to former US Senator Bob Smith (R) tell Politics1 that Smith has shifted away from his earlier plan to run for US Senate in Florida, where he has lived for the past few years. Instead, Smith – who has maintained a home in New Hampshire – now plans to return to the Granite State and run for US Senate in the GOP primary next year if former US Senator John Sununu Jr. runs for Judd Gregg’s open seat. One of Smith’s consultants, who asked not too be named, said Smith will emphasize his pro-gun rights, pro-life and pro-environment stances against Sununu. Smith lost for renomination to Sununu in the bitter 2002 primary, so part of Smith’s motiviation for running against Sununu would be to inflict as much political damage as possible on Sununu.

If these sources are telling the truth, then Smith wants to get in purely out of spite – and wants the world to know it. It’s a motive straight out of a Seinfeld episode. Dean Barker explains just how fantastic this could be for Team Blue:

1) Bob Smith, by virtue of what was done to him by Sununu in 2002, is not beholden to the Sununu-Sununu lockdown on the Senate nomination.  So while all the other NHGOPers are not preparing and raising money while they wait for John E. to make up his mind, Smith can walk right in and blow this holding pattern to… smithereens (sorry; couldn’t resist).  This, in turn, gives the green light to others to go in too, despite the first and last name of the NHGOP Chair. “Well, if there’s going to be a primary regardless, etc….”

2) A Smith-Sununu contest would be incredibly confusing on the issues for the right, and has the potential to be very divisive.  Sununu is tied and bound to the Bush years, anti-choice, doesn’t really focus much on guns, and doesn’t believe in anthropogenic climate change.  Smith is not tied to the Bush years, more progressive on environmental issues, but more openly conservative on others, especially social issues like abortion and guns.  Confusing!

More at the link, and some Blue Hampshire commenters worry that this could, perversely, help Sununu. I just don’t see it, especially with New Hampshire’s very late (September) primary. This really could be quite a lot of fun.

As a companion to this Senate chart, below is a table listing committee assignments for freshmen members of the House in the 111th Congress (data taken from here):

None of these freshman critters were, of course, lucky enough to make it on to the Appropriations Committee. But when they do get there, there is just one thing they must remember:

(Credit to Crisitunity for uniting Shepard Fairey’s two most iconic images under one geek banner.)

Vile:

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning predicted over the weekend that U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would likely be dead from pancreatic cancer within nine months.

During a wide-ranging 30-minute speech on Saturday at the Hardin County Republican Party’s Lincoln Day Dinner, Bunning said he supports conservative judges “and that’s going to be in place very shortly because Ruth Bader Ginsburg … has cancer.”

“Bad cancer. The kind that you don’t get better from,” he told a crowd of about 100 at the old State Theater.

It’s pretty easy to see why national Republicans want nothing to do with this mess of a man.

The other day, I relayed some informed speculation that Charlie Crist could face a serious primary challenge from his party’s right wing if he were to run for Senate – despite his lofty poll numbers. That’s because Crist is carving out a very public profile these days as a moderate, particularly with regard to stimulus spending.

But apart from a few non-insane fellow travelers like Arnold Schwarzenegger, the GOP has made opposition to the stimulus the sine qua non of modern-day Republicanism. The Florida GOP is no exception, and now its most conservative faction has trotted out George P. Bush (Jeb!’s son) to chide Charlie:

George P. Bush may not be ready to follow his father, grandfather and uncle into politics just yet, but he is trying to help the Republican Party regain a conservative message, which on Saturday included criticism of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

Bush, the son of former Gov. Jeb Bush, grandson of former President George H.W. Bush and nephew of former President George W. Bush, addressed a national conference of young Republicans and told them there is a rift in the party between fiscal conservatives and what he calls “D light” — Republicans trying to appeal to the political middle.

“There’s some in our party that want to assume that government is the answer to all of our problems,” Bush said. “I’m not going to name any names.”

Of course, he did go right ahead and name names:

Afterward, Bush said he doesn’t think Crist is a fiscal conservative and that he may have hurt himself with some Republicans for his appearance with Obama and his support of the stimulus plan.

“That will be on his track record, and people are going to remember that,” Bush said, adding that Crist is running the risk of falling in the “D light” category of the party.

“There are numerous actions that I have seen legislatively that do not speak to a strong conservative; it speaks more to a moderate,” Bush said. “That’s fine, but when you run as a conservative and then you lead as a moderate, that’s one thing that any leader would have to reconcile.”

Could this be a prelude to a fierce moderate-vs-conservative primary fight for the Senate nomination? Or could malcontents like George P. even be hinting at a gubernatorial challenge, if Crist chooses to stay put? This isn’t just a fight for the soul of the Florida Republican Party, but really the GOP itself. Crist is their most prominent moderate on the national scene, and from the wingnut point of view, he must be kneecapped.

I’m starting to really believe we could see a major R-on-R food-fight here. Let’s at least keep our fingers crossed!

The rumor mill is churning out a now-famous name:

One of the more interesting rumors rattling around in Democratic circles is that Lilly Ledbetter might run for AL-03 against Republican incumbent Mike Rogers in 2010. Interesting to think about, unlikely to happen, one reason being that she is over 70 years old. While several have heard the rumor, no one could tell the Parlor where it might have started.

Democrat Josh Segall challenged Rogers in 2008 and is said to be strongly considering another run. Another name in the mix on the Democratic side could be Calhoun County Commissioner Robert Downing.

I agree that Ledbetter is probably past the age where most people would consider making a first run for office, but it’s an interesting thought nonetheless. Alabama’s third CD was originally drawn to help elect a Democrat, so this district is potentially fertile territory. In 2002, Republican Mike Rogers won by just 50-48 when the seat was open. And last year, the unheralded and outspent Josh Segall held Rogers to a relatively meager 53-47 win.

So, Ledbetter or no, this could be a sleeper seat worth watching.

(Hat-tip: alpolitics)

Quinnipiac University tested several different segments and scenarios in FL-Sen. Here they are (2/11-16, registered voters, 1/21 in parens):

Dem primary:

Pam Iorio: 16

Kendrick Meek: 16

Ron Klein: 14

Dan Gelber: 5

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 4

Undecided: 43

(MoE: ±5.1%)

GOP primary without Crist:

Connie Mack: 34

Vern Buchanan: 11

Marco Rubio: 6

Allan Bense: 4

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 5

Undecided: 38

(MoE: ±4.7)

GOP primary with Crist:

Charlie Crist: 53

Connie Mack: 13

Vern Buchanan: 5

Marco Rubio: 3

Allan Bense: 2

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 1

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.7)

Crist vs. generic D:

Democrat: 25 (27)

Charlie Crist (R): 48 (47)

Undecided: 27 (27)

(MoE: ±3.1)

Since you probably want a scorecard:

State Sen. Dan Gelber (Miami area)

Mayor Pam Iorio (Tampa)

Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22)

Rep. Kendrick Meek (FL-17)

Former state House Speaker Allan Bense (Panama City area)

Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-13)

Rep. Connie Mack IV (FL-14)

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (Miami area)

And of course, Gov. Charlie Crist needs no introduction. The only people on this list who have actually announced, though, are Meek and Gelber – the field is very much in flux. (North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns has also jumped in on the Dem side, but he wasn’t tested.) Anyhow, I only have two quick comments:

1) Yes, I realize that Connie Mack (aka Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV) is fortunate, politically speaking, to share the exact same name as his famous father, who was a US Senator until 2001. But wasn’t it a bit much for Quinnipiac to prod respondents by wording their question like so: “Is your opinion of Congressman Connie Mack IV, son of former United States Senator Connie Mack, favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?” I think that partly explains his unusually high numbers.

2) Crist looks like he’s riding tall right now in the Republican primary, but a colleague of mine well-versed in Florida politics has me convinced that Crist’s apostasy will guarantee him a fierce challenge from the right. His cheerleading for the stimulus – which the GOP standard-bearers have insanely decided to turn into the ultimate conservative litmus test – is just Exhibit A on his list of sins. We’ll see if the wingnuts can really make him feel pain, or if they’ll just have to suck it up and (gasp!) support someone electable. Obviously, we’re rooting for option one.

(Hat-tip: Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire)