Author: DavidNYC

Another unsurprising departure:

U.S. Rep. Artur Davis on Friday will declare his intention to seek the governorship of Alabama, sources close to the congressman confirm.  

The much-anticipated announcement marks the most serious bid ever launched by a black candidate to win the top office in a state that still observes Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis’ birthdays but that also gave rise to the civil rights movement that ended Jim Crow.

Sources close to the campaign said Davis, 41, will announce his intention to seek the Democratic Party nomination for governor at a midday event Friday in Birmingham, which he represents in Congress, followed by a late-afternoon event in his native Montgomery. He’ll kick off his campaign outside the state’s Archives, within sight of the first White House of the Confederacy and the Alabama Capitol, where that Confederacy was born 148 years ago Wednesday.

Ag Comm’r and SSP hero Ron Sparks, as well as Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom, are also considering runs for the Dems. Open seat fans, don’t fret – Obama won 79% of the vote in AL-07. In fact, this is a good opportunity to replace Davis with someone more progressive, in the mold, perhaps, of Steve Cohen replacing Harold Ford, Jr.

UPDATE: A Roll Call piece (h/t politicalal) lists some potential AL-07 candidates:

Of the several members of the state Legislature who have been mentioned as possible Davis replacements, the most intriguing may be state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. (D), the son of the former Congressman [whom Davis ousted in a primary in 2002]. …

Other Democratic state legislators whose names have been floated as possible candidates in the 7th include state Rep. Merika Coleman and state Sen. Rodger Smitherman, who both hail from Jefferson County, where Birmingham is located. State Sen. Bobby Singleton, whose senate district includes parts of Tuscaloosa and rural counties south and west, has also been mentioned. …

Birmingham attorney Terri Sewell, a longtime associate of Davis’ who attended Princeton University at the same time as first lady Michelle Obama, is expected to run in an open-seat race in the 7th.  …

Another candidate mentioned in Democratic circles is Sheila Smoot, a two-term Jefferson County commissioner who is also known for her work as a former television news anchor.

As you may recall, there will be no primary for the NY-20 special election to replace now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. The GOP has settled on carpetbagging Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco as their nominee. Meanwhile, the Dem county committees are interviewing six people:

• Suzy Ballantyne, Director of Governmental Affairs for the New York State AFL-CIO
• Tracy Egan, former tv news anchor
• Assemblyman Tim Gordon
• Ron Kim, Kim Commissioner of Public Safety in the City of Saratoga Springs
• Scott Murphy, Managing Director of Advantage Capital Partners
• Carol Schrager, attorney

Full bios are available here.  The Times Union says a decision could come as early as today.

UPDATE: The Dems have picked Scott Murphy. (Thanks, JFM110.) Also, here is Scott Murphy‘s website.

In a widely expected move, GOP Rep. Adam Putnam is bailing:

Rep. Adam Putnam, the third-ranking Republican in the House until he relinquished that post late last year, will give up his House seat to pursue a bid as the next agriculture commissioner of Florida.

His decision to make this run has been the source of much speculation since he gave up his post as chairman of the Republican Conference on election night last fall. Most Floridians view the commissioner’s job as a stepping stone to the governor’s office.

Despite the lack of surprise, this is nonetheless a telling move. Putnam was a rising star in the GOP ranks and is only 34 years old. He likely would have sat in Boehner’s seat some day. Yet he’s choosing to leave the House rather than face the prospect of a lengthy tour in the wilderness.

Remarkably, the prior holder of Putnam’s leadership job – Chair of the House Republican Conference – also just bailed last cycle. (That would be Deborah Pryce.) We also saw the departure of two former NRCC heads (Tom Reynolds and Tom Davis). Can’t say I blame any of them for wanting to jump ship, but it really says something that so many top GOPers are fleeing.

Anyhow, open seat fans, this news is quite interesting. In 2004, George Bush romped in this district, racking up a 58-42 win. But that changed dramatically in 2008, with McCain only narrowly edging Obama 51-48. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts as to why FL-12 jumped thirteen points while the state as a whole moved “only” eight.

In any event, Tim Sahd over at the Hotline takes a look at who some of the candidates might be:

Of course, for Dems to have a chance, they’ll need to recruit a candidate that matches the GOP-leaning CD. And if moderate ex-state Sen./’98 LG candidate Rick Dantzler runs, they may have that candidate. But it’s been 10 years since he ran (his ticket ran against ex-Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R) and lost, 55-45%), so the value of his name ID in this race is questionable.

The Lakeland Ledger also reports that state Rep. Seth McKeel (R) — a close friend of Putnam’s — had been considered the most likely candidate to run, but the birth of his child has has him leaning toward staying in the legislature. Other GOPers that are mentioned include state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) and state Rep. Dennis Ross (R).

This is probably the most compelling red seat to open up so far. Looking forward to a bunch more of these!

NYT:

The White House on Saturday confirmed the widespread speculation that President Obama is set to pick Senator Judd Gregg, Republican of New Hampshire, as his nominee for commerce secretary.

“Senator Gregg is now the leading candidate for commerce and a pick that could come as early as Monday,” a senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because a formal announcement has not yet been made.

If Gov. Lynch appoints a GOPer caretaker who won’t run in 2010, then I can live with this. Gregg must really want out of the Senate, huh.

UPDATE: I’ve heard some speculation that Lynch could pick former state Rep. Elizabeth Hager. Hager, a moderate (perhaps even liberal) pro-choice Republican, served thirteen terms in the NH state House until she was primaried out this past fall by a gang of four conservative candidates who campaigned against her together. She also endorsed Obama late in the game and Lynch (who went on to win 70-28). She’s also only 63.

More: Hager voted against a bill that would have prevented employers from subjecting employees to anti-union propaganda. One article says (not a direct quote from her) that Hager “would be delighted to stay for just two years.” Pretty vague paraphrase and doesn’t mean she’d commit to being a caretaker.

Michael Barone used to be a respected political analyst once upon a time. As editor of the Almanac of American Politics and a ubiquitous presence inside the Beltway, his was a prime shaper of narratives. But over the last decade and a half, Barone’s sharp lurch to the right has slowly destroyed his credibility, as Mark Schmitt ably documents in this terrific takedown.

But DC being what it is, Barone still gets listened to – which means he’s still a worthy target of our derision. Thankfully, he makes the task very, very easy. Dave Weigel has helpfully dug up a true Barone gem from just four years ago – and I really do mean gem. Almost every sentence in the piece was either wrong when it was written or quickly became wrong soon after. To give you a sense, here’s the sentence Weigel pulled his quote from:

[T]he 2004 presidential election results tell us that Republicans are in even stronger shape than their 55-45 and 232-203 Senate and House margins suggest.

When you see a line like that, you just have to click the link because you know the whole piece is going to be awesome. And it is. The piece just gets better and better. The next graf:

Start with the Senate. George W. Bush carried 31 states that elect 62 senators. There are nine Republican senators from Kerry states and 16 Democratic senators from Bush states. Many of these are from states that were close in the presidential election. But there are 11 Democrats and only three Republicans from states where their presidential nominee got less than 47 percent of the vote. There are more Democrats with political incentives to vote with Bush than there are Republicans with incentives to vote against him.

Didn’t quite work out that way, did it?

As for the House, we now know which presidential candidate carried each of the 435 congressional districts, thanks to Polidata, which crunched the numbers for National Journal and the Almanac of American Politics (of which I am co-author). These numbers surprised even some political pros. Bush carried 255 districts and John Kerry only 180. In all, 41 Democrats represent Bush districts and 18 Republicans represent Kerry districts. Eliminating the districts where the House member’s presidential candidate won 47 percent or more, we find only five Republicans in strong Kerry districts but 30 Democrats in strong Bush districts.

What a disaster that turned out to be for Dems! But here’s the real money shot:

The implications? In the long run, Republicans are well positioned to increase their numbers in both the Senate and the House. Some Democrats hold seats because of personal popularity or moderate voting records. But when they retire, Republicans may well succeed them. In the short run, very few Republicans run great political risks by supporting Bush. Significantly more Democrats run great political risks by opposing him. Obstruction doesn’t work well for Democrats in Bush seats: Just ask former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. And at the moment, on Social Security, as Democrats Stan Greenberg and James Carville wrote last month, “Voters are looking for reform, change and new ideas, but Democrats seem stuck in concrete.”

I started to put various chortle-worthy parts of this paragraph in boldface but I had stop because the whole thing was becoming a mess of HTML tags. In any event, we should be quite glad that the Republicans listened to Barone and the Dems ignored Carville. (To show you how stupidly off-base the concern trolling was over Democrats’ “position” on Social Security in 2005, read this article and enjoy a laugh.)

Sadly, as I said at the outset, some people still take this bungler seriously. But fortunately, it’s fewer every year. And so I bring Barone’s column to you and the world as a public service – a reminder that if you aren’t busy tuning him out, at the very least, believe the opposite of whatever he says.

The Senate overwhelmingly passed the S-CHIP reauthorization and expansion today, 66-32. All of the nays were Republicans. Here’s a roll call of the GOP crumb-bums up for re-election in 2010:

Bennett (R-UT)

Bunning (R-KY)

Burr (R-NC)

Coburn (R-OK)

Crapo (R-ID)

DeMint (R-SC)

Grassley (R-IA)

Gregg (R-NH)

Isakson (R-GA)

McCain (R-AZ)

Shelby (R-AL)

Vitter (R-LA)

Never will you find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. Fortunately, though, quite a few of these troglodytes are vulnerable or are weighing retirement: Bunning, Burr, Grassley, Gregg & Vitter. I look forward to seeing them all get bashed over the head with their callous cruelty toward children. They deserve it.

Holy shit if true:

The Obama administration has been floating the idea of naming Republican Sen. Judd Gregg (N.H.) to be Commerce Secretary, several Senate sources said Thursday.

The sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Gregg’s nomination was far from a done deal, but remains a serious possibility. Reached by phone, Gregg, the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, said he had no comment on whether he has been in talks with the White House about the post.

At first glance, this move might seem like TEH AWESOME – 60 SEATS0Rz! But believe it or not, I think this is actually bad for a lot of reasons. On the merits, Gregg is a conservative Republican – hardly the kind of guy I want running an important cabinet department. Of course, that’s neither here nor there for the purposes of SSP.

But electorally, it also troubles me. Gov. John Lynch would get to fill the vacancy, and he is very untrustworthy when it comes to matters of partisanship. He’s said ten times as many nice things about John McCain as he has about any Democrat. He’s regularly undermined Dems seeking elective office in New Hampshire, more than once supporting their Republican rivals (like GOP state Sen. Bob Odell). He’s just really not much a Dem.

In short, if there is any sitting Dem governor who might appoint a Republican in circumstances like this, it’s Lynch. At the very least, I think there’s almost no way he’d appoint Paul Hodes, who is our strongest candidate and a proud progressive. Lynch would very likely appoint a wishy-washy Lieberdem, perhaps even 2004 Lieberman national co-chair Katrina Swett (who briefly ran for Sununu’s seat last cycle).

These rumors may well amount to nothing. And even if they do pan out, Lynch could surprise us with a good pick, who with Franken would give us 60 seats in the Senate. But I don’t think the odds of that are high, and really, I’m not loving this.

UPDATE: As Populista points out, though, if this helps us pass the Employee Free Choice Act, then it’s worth it.

Not quite what you may be thinking:

Totally awesome.

(Via Wil Wheaton)

From Tim Craig:

The first battle of the 2009 general election campaign for governor will take place next week when voters in Fairfax County go to the polls to elect a new board chairman.

Emboldened by the near victory of a GOP House candidate in heavily Democratic Alexandria earlier this month, Virginia Republicans are hoping Fairfax Supervisor Pat Herrity (R-Springfield) can defeat his Democratic opponent, Supervisor Sharon S. Bulova (Braddock), in the chairman’s race.

In effort to lay the groundwork for his own campaign this fall, Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell (R) has dispatched paid canvassers and volunteers to help Herrity. By the end of the weekend, McDonnell’s staff estimates they will have knocked on more than 15,000 doors. McDonnell plans to campaign with Herrity on Monday.

Not to be outdone, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe is turning his Mclean headquarters into a daily phone banking center in support of Bulova. While much of the work will be done by volunteers, McAuliffe plans to man the phones on Saturday.

Dems Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds are also offering their assistance to Bulova. In a way, it may be Moran who has the most to prove. The Alexandria race Craig refers to in the second graf was actually a special election to fill Moran’s own seat in the House of Delegates (he resigned to campaign full time). As Craig explained in an earlier post, the Dems’ 16-vote narrow escape was a real embarrassment given that the district had voted 75% for Obama.

The Fairfax chairman post, meanwhile, was held by Gerry Connolly, who of course just entered the U.S. House of Representatives. Connolly has started asserting himself early as a member of Congress, whipping freshmen to support Henry Waxman’s ouster of John Dingell as chair of the Energy & Commerce committee, so this race probably means a good deal to him as well.

If the Dem wins, I expect we’ll see all kinds of competing claims over who deserves credit. Of course, the GOP will just say that the Dems should have won, and they’d be right – Fairfax went 60-39 for Obama. On the other hand, a loss or even a close call will lead to predictable recriminations and give Virginia Republicans a dose of momentum they certainly don’t deserve. Regardless of who wins our gubernatorial primary, that’s something the Dems can’t afford.

The Swing State Project is pleased to announce our first set of Senate race ratings for the 2009-10 election cycle:

Races to Watch:

     CA (Boxer)

     CT (Dodd)

     DE (Open)

     HI (Inouye)

     IA (Grassley)

     KS (Open)

     ND (Dorgan)

What follows are brief explanations of our initial ratings, including the “safe” races not listed above, in alphabetical order. DavidNYC, James L. and Crisitunity all contributed to this post – our individual contributions are noted for each entry. A permalink to our ratings is available in the right-hand sidebar and can also be found here.

Alabama – Richard Shelby (R): Safe R

Democrats in Alabama are focusing on the open gubernatorial seat – Shelby’s eye-bursting $13 million on hand is a major deterrent. Some folks have speculated about a retirement (he’s 74), but his press secretary told SSP he’s running again. (DavidNYC)

Alaska – Lisa Murkowski (R): Safe R

The excitement here, if any, will come from a potential R-on-R primary matchup featuring Sarah Palin vs. Lisa Murkowski. There really isn’t a Dem who could make this competitive, and in any case, there’s a long list of more appetizing targets ahead of Alaska. (D)

Arizona – John McCain (R): Safe R

When Obama tapped Janet Napolitano to run the Dept. of Homeland Security, we lost our best candidate to take on John McCain – though I’m not sure she would have jumped in anyhow. Given Obama’s unusual closeness with his former rival, I tend to doubt that any major names will get in. (D)

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln (D): Safe D

Even though Arkansas broke sharply for McCain while most of the rest of the county got quite a bit bluer, there really is no Republican bench here. Only Mike Huckabee could make this race competitive, and he ain’t running. (D)

California – Barbara Boxer (D): RTW

Dick Mountjoy. Bill Jones. Tom Campbell. Matt Fong. Those are the last four California Republicans to run for Senate, and the best performance among them was Fong’s 43% against Boxer. But that was ten years ago, and things have only gotten worse for the Cali GOP as it has moved implacably rightward. The small chance that term-limited Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger runs makes this a “Race to Watch,” but if he bails, it’s Safe D. (D)

Colorado – Michael Bennet (D): Lean D

With Gov. Bill Ritter tapping a complete statewide unknown to replace Ken Salazar in the Senate, most assume that the GOP will mount a serious effort to dislodge former Denver Superintendent of Public Schools Michael Bennet as he faces voters for the first time in 2010. However, the bigger names seem to be taking a pass for now; both state AG John Suthers and ex-Rep. Scott McInnis have declined to run for the seat. While Bennet still has a lot to prove, he’s off to a good start. (James L.)

Connecticut – Chris Dodd (D): RTW

Chris Dodd’s favorability ratings in his home state have suffered ever since his very unsuccessful presidential run, an undertaking he was never quite able to explain to his constituents – or Iowa caucus-goers, for that matter. Allegations that he got favorable “VIP” loan terms from lender Countrywide haven’t helped. What makes this a Race to Watch is the fact that three reasonably strong Republicans could all potentially give it a gander: Gov. Jodi Rell and former Congressmen Rob Simmons and Chris Shays. But Dodd is a powerful fundraiser in a blue state, and no one has stepped up to the plate yet. (D)

Delaware – Ted Kaufman (OPEN) (D): RTW

This race will only become exciting if Rep. Mike Castle gets in (something that could conceivably happen, especially since life in the Senate minority is a lot better than life in the House minority). If not, DE-Sen should be solidly in our corner. (D)

Florida – Mel Martinez (OPEN) (R): Tossup

An open seat race in one of the nation’s most populous and most closely-split states? With Mel Martinez retiring, look for this one to be the marquee race of 2010. With popular Democratic state CFO Alex Sink taking a pass on the race, there’s no clear frontrunner in the race or even a frontrunner for either party’s nomination. On the Dem side, Rep. Kendrick Meek has already declared his interest, but he won’t be the only one. (Crisitunity)

Georgia – Johnny Isakson (R): Safe R

If Democrats field a strong candidate here, this race could conceivably be of some degree of interest, but it seems unlikely that guys like Jim Marshall or Thurbert Baker would be willing to give up their perches for a run against an untarnished Republican incumbent in a state that has routinely snakebitten Democrats since 2002. If a high profile primary challenger emerges to take on Isakson (as has been rumored), then perhaps this one can get interesting, but until then, all we have is a dollar and a pocketful of “ifs”. (J)

Hawaii – Daniel Inouye (D): RTW

Octogenarian Inouye has said he’s running again, and he should have a clear shot. The only wrinkle is if term-limited Gov. Linda Lingle makes a play. But she’s almost certainly better off biding her time, waiting for a senatorial retirement. (D)

Idaho – Mike Crapo (R): Safe R

Idaho Dems will be doing everything they can to protect Walt Minnick in his first re-election campaign. This race is not on anyone’s radar. (D)

Illinois – Roland Burris (D): Likely D

We are the junior senator from Illinois – for now. By all rights this seat should be Safe D, but if by some insane mix-up we wind up with, say, Roland Burris vs. Ron James Tiberius Kirk, IL-Sen could be in serious jeopardy. Our “Likely D” rating is more of a commentary on the wildly unsettled state of play than an indicator of our real expectations. This is a good example of a race that is especially difficult to assess so early on; the label on this sucker is definitely going to change, probably more than once. (D)

Indiana – Evan Bayh (D): Safe D

Sadly, Evan Bayh has never even come close to living up to the legacy of his father, populist hero Birch Bayh. But the Bayh name is still incredibly powerful in Indiana, and Evan has done a good job entrenching himself in office. Prominent Hoosier Republicans, scratching their heads as to how their state swung twenty points bluer in 2008, are almost certain to take a pass. (D)

Iowa – Chuck Grassley (R): RTW

Grassley’s been the subject of a lot of retirement rumors, if only because of his age. But his tight relationship with Max Baucus, and his career-long posture as more of a process guy than a legislation guy, probably mean that his life in the minority is a lot better than average. If he bails, though, this race will probably attract the likes of Rep. Bruce Braley and shoot straight to Tossup. (D)

Kansas – Sam Brownback (OPEN) (R): RTW

Several big-name Republicans have already declared for or openly contemplated getting into this race, so at least there ought to be a fun GOP primary. But unless term-limited Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is our nominee, Dems will be boxed out in this state (which hasn’t sent a Dem to the Senate since before your mother was born). (D)

Kentucky – Jim Bunning (R): Tossup

With Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn both trying to shove Jim Bunning out the door, and Democratic Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo announcing his intention to seek a rematch, Bunning is feeling the squeeze from all sides. While a Bunning retirement would almost certainly be met with cheer from Senate Republicans, for now we have to assume that the doddery Senator is sincere in his desire to seek another term (and he certainly seems annoyed at any suggestion to the contrary). If he does indeed face the voters again, Democrats are eager to pound the notoriously poor campaigner with full force in 2010 after failing to to adequately fund the upstart Mongiardo in ’04. A Bunning retirement or a nasty Democratic primary could cause us to readjust the scales here, but for now, the Republicans begin this race with no clear advantage whatsoever. (J)

Louisiana – David Vitter (R): Likely R

While some observers have singled out “Diaper” Dave Vitter as an incumbent facing serious jeopardy in 2010, we’re not really as sanguine about Democratic fortunes in a state that actually took an even sharper turn toward the GOP in 2008 than it did four years previous. If Republicans outraged over Vitter’s love of prostitutes manage to coalesce around a serious primary challenger, then we might see more of an opening for a Democratic challenge. (J)

Maryland – Barbara Mikulski (D): Safe D

Even if Mikulski, one of the few Dems who might be contemplating retirement, were to call it quits, we have a deep bench here and the GOP has… well, they have 83-year-old Rep. Roscoe Bartlett – so old he was originally elected on the Whig line. Hell, Tommy Carcetti would beat his ass. Next. (D)

Missouri – Kit Bond (OPEN) (R): Tossup

Kit Bond handed Democrats a major gift here by announcing his retirement earlier this month, but if this race follows the pattern of most other recent statewide elections in Missouri, it’ll be a major battle all the way through election day. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan seems set to run for the Democrats, and she’ll be a strong nominee against a Republican field that is still very much in flux. (J)

Nevada – Harry Reid (D): Likely D

Reid seems to have been scarred for life by his 400-vote win over John Ensign in 1998 and has run scared ever since. His perpetual defensive crouch has hurt Dems on the Hill, though it may save him against a potential strong run by either Rep. Dean Heller or former Rep. Jon Porter – or it might make him look like a weakling Dem from the bad old 2002 era. No matter what, Reid’s prominent position means that protecting him will be a top priority for Bob Menendez. Knowing that, top-shelf Republicans might decline, which could return Reid to Safe status. (D)

New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (R): Lean R

Paul Hodes seems very likely to run here, and if he does, he’s going to give Gregg a very serious race, and probably move the needle to Tossup within a year or so (if not before then). It’s also possible that Gregg will retire, in which case Dems will be in the driver’s seat. (D)

New York-A – Chuck Schumer (D): Safe D

You cannot even hope to contain Chuck Schumer. (D)

New York-B – Kirsten Gillibrand (D): Safe D

It’s clear that Gov. David Paterson picked Gillibrand because she checks off a number of boxes – woman, upstate, prodigious fundraiser – and because she has considerable political skills. Peter King has been whining about the choice, but only because he’s bummed he won’t have the chance to take on Caroline Kennedy. Even if a Dem primary does materialize (something I’m skeptical of), there just really isn’t a single GOPer in the state who can make this interesting. (And no, Rudy ain’t gonna run.) (D)

North Carolina – Richard Burr (R): Lean R

Richard Burr faces several disadvantages in his quest for his first re-election: the fact that North Carolina is a lot bluer than it was in 2004, and his status as one of the Senate’s most anonymous back-benchers. With a number of top-tier Democrats eyeing the race (AG Roy Cooper, former Treasurer Richard Moore, Rep. Heath Shuler) and polling very close to Burr, he looks to face a much harder fight than he did four years ago. (And for the superstitious among us, remember that this is the “cursed seat,” which no one has successfully retained for decades.) (C)

North Dakota – Byron Dorgan (D): RTW

Byron Dorgan has ensconced himself quite nicely in North Dakota, increasing his already-sizable victory margins with every race (59% to 63% to 68%). The only dark cloud on the prairie is a possible run by popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven, hence the Race to Watch tag. (D)

Ohio – George Voinovich (OPEN) (R): Tossup

George Voinovich’s retirement creates another open seat opportunity for the Democrats. Ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman seems to have the GOP nomination locked down, while the Democratic field remains unsettled (although currently Rep. Tim Ryan seems very  much inclined to do it, while Lt. Gov Lee Fisher seems leaning against). Polling gives Portman a small edge right now, but once the attacks on his free-trading, loyal-Bushie ways begin, look for this to turn into a barnburner. (C)

Oklahoma – Tom Coburn (R): Safe R

Tom Coburn is a crazy bastard. Tom Coburn is a disgrace to the Senate. Tom Coburn has single-handedly held up tons of popular legislation to suit his personal whims. And yet Tom Coburn is very, very likely to remain a United State Senator come 2011. (D)

Oregon – Ron Wyden (D): Safe D

Ron Wyden has drawn third-tier opposition in his last two runs for the Senate. With the state’s GOP bench in shambles and anyone left capable of playing statewide (Greg Walden, the newly-unemployed Gordon Smith) eyeing the open governor’s race, this is likely to continue. (C)

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (R): Lean R

Democrats’ chances at dislodging Arlen Specter may have gotten a little tougher, with Club for Growth honcho Pat Toomey training his circular firing squad on PA-Gov instead of a repeat primary challenge to Specter. Instead, the aging Specter gets to save his strength for the general election, where Rep. Allyson Schwartz seems to be on track to take the Dem nomination. With Pennsylvania, and especially Specter’s power center in the Philly suburbs, gradually becoming bluer, though, this still looks to be a very competitive race. (C)

South Carolina – Jim DeMint (R): Safe R

DeMint, unlike his Palmetto State colleague Lindsay Graham, has established his conservative bona fides quite firmly – which is to say, he’s a raging winger. In South Carolina, that probably helps, rather than hurts, most statewide Republicans as it ensures sufficient enthusiasm from the base. Dems don’t really have much of a bench here. (D)

South Dakota – John Thune (R): Safe R

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is the only Dem who could give Thune a race, but if she leaves the House, it’ll be to run for Governor, not Senator. (D)

Texas – Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): Likely R

KBH is running for governor against incumbent Rick Perry. The only issue is when she’ll resign, triggering a special election that’s certain to be a free-for-all. Dems don’t have a great shot unless they can rally around a single candidate, something complicated by both former state Comptroller Jim Sharp and Houston Mayor Bill White both saying they’ll run. Plus, Texas Dems will be focused like a laser on winning the state House back, so as to have an all-important seat at the redistricting table. Still, this oughta be fun, and anything can happen in a special like this. (D)

Utah – Robert Bennett (R): Safe R

Does anyone know if Jeopardy mega-champion Ken Jennings is a Democrat? UPDATE: So he is! I should really read the articles I link to. Well, now all we have to do is convince Jennings to run. He’s probably way too smart for that, though. (D)

Vermont – Patrick Leahy (D): Safe D

Gov. Jim Douglas is the only Republican of any stature in the state, but the one poll of the race so far has Leahy cruising 58-36. It’s remarkable that a state which went Dem just once in the 20th century before 1992 could have turned so sharply blue (Vermont didn’t even vote for FDR in 1936!), but there you have it. (D)

Washington – Patty Murray (D): Safe D

Patty Murray may be one of the most misunderestimated members of the Senate, as several highly-touted U.S. Representatives (Linda Smith, George Nethercutt) found out to their dismay. With Dino Rossi heading back to the private sector bathed in two-time loser stank, and Cathy McMorris Rodgers focusing on the House leadership track, it’s looking like she’ll draw only minor opposition in 2010. (C)

Wisconsin – Russ Feingold (D): Likely D

Feingold always seems to draw a respectable challenge, perhaps in no small part due to his iconoclasm and fundraising purity, but it remains to be seen whether this cycle will be the one that finally breaks the pattern. Rep. Paul Ryan is said to be keeping an eye on the seat, but otherwise, the Wisconsin GOP has precious few weapons in their arsenal. (J)