Author: DavidNYC

AK-Sen: Palin Beats Murkowski in Hypothetical Primary Matchup

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Lisa Murkowski (R-inc): 31

Sarah Palin (R): 55

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±5%)

As Markos reminds us, the polling in Alaska this past cycle (including Research 2000’s) was abysmal, so we need to view these numbers with appropriate skepticism. Nonetheless, this is a matchup I’d want to see almost no matter what. There’s nothing like a top-dollar GOP food fight to warm my heart.

R2K also tested a bunch of other gov & sen matchups, but we’re hamstrung by the lack of Dem candidates with any real name recognition. It’s hard to feel too optimistic for the Alaska Division of Team Blue at this early juncture. But who knows? Maybe an ultra-nasty Republican primary battle could jar this seat loose for us.

CO-Sen: Salazar to Interior

Apparently, it’s confirmed:

A transition official for President-elect Barack Obama says Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar will be named Interior Secretary later this week.

The appointment will round out Obama’s environment and energy team. He unveiled most of the team on Monday. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid pre-empting Obama’s upcoming announcement.

This aide did just pre-empt Obama’s announcement – the only thing anonymity does is possibly protect his or her sorry ass (unless this was one of those “intentional” leaks directed from on high). Whatever. I’ve already gone on record saying I’m not thrilled with this choice – I would have much preferred Rep. Raul Grijalva – but that’s neither here nor there for the purposes of SSP.

Gov. Bill Ritter, a Dem, gets to pick Salazar’s replacement. The seat, which was up in 2010 anyway, might now see see a more competitive race than it otherwise would have, especially if Ritter picks a caretaker. Who do you like to replace Salazar, and who might face off against his replacement in two years?

UPDATE: Some names supposedly in circulation, according to the Denver Post:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper

Rep. John Salazar

Rep. Ed Perlmutter

Rep. Diana DeGette

Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet

Outgoing state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff

Former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland

2008 Presidential Results by Congressional District Permalink

We’re pleased to announce that we’ve created a perma-post for the 2008 presidential results by congressional district. (We’ve included the 2004 and 2000 results as well.) You can use this link, and you’ll also find a permalink in the “Resources” box on the right-hand sidebar of the site.

As our crowdsourcing project continues, we’ll keep adding new numbers. In fact, you should expect another round of numbers this week.

Some other site news stuff: Thank you to everyone who has taken the Blogads reader survey so far! We’ve gathered about 75 responses so far, which is terrific. We’d love to hit at least 100. This may not be a scientific study, but nonetheless, everyone on this site knows the value of a big N! So please take the survey today. Once it’s complete, I promise that we’ll share some of the results.

Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008

Click Column Headers to Sort

(all numbers use 2006 district lines)

State CD Member Party Obama McCain Kerry Bush ’04 Gore Bush ’00
AK AL Young, Don (R) 38 59 36 61 28 59
AL 1 Bonner (R) 39 61 35 64 38 60
AL 2 Roby (R) 36 63 33 67 38 61
AL 3 Rogers, Mike D. (R) 43 56 41 58 47 52
AL 4 Aderholt (R) 23 76 28 71 37 61
AL 5 Brooks (R) 38 61 39 60 44 54
AL 6 Bachus (R) 23 76 22 78 25 74
AL 7 Sewell (D) 72 27 64 35 66 33
AR 1 Crawford (R) 38 59 47 52 50 48
AR 2 Griffin (R) 44 54 48 51 48 49
AR 3 Womack (R) 34 64 36 62 37 60
AR 4 Ross, Mike (D) 39 58 48 51 49 48
AZ 1 Gosar (R) 44 54 46 54 46 51
AZ 2 Franks (R) 38 61 38 61 41 57
AZ 3 Quayle (R) 42 57 41 58 43 55
AZ 4 Pastor (D) 66 33 62 38 63 35
AZ 5 Schweikert (R) 47 52 45 54 43 54
AZ 6 Flake (R) 38 61 35 64 37 61
AZ 7 Grijalva (D) 57 42 57 43 58 38
AZ 8 Giffords (D) 46 52 46 53 46 50
CA 1 Thompson, Mike (D) 66 32 60 38 52 39
CA 2 Herger (R) 43 55 37 62 33 61
CA 3 Lungren (R) 49 49 41 58 41 55
CA 4 McClintock (R) 44 54 37 61 36 59
CA 5 Matsui (D) 70 28 61 38 60 35
CA 6 Woolsey (D) 76 22 70 28 62 30
CA 7 Miller, George (D) 72 27 67 32 66 31
CA 8 Pelosi (D) 85 12 85 14 77 15
CA 9 Lee (D) 88 10 86 13 79 13
CA 10 Garamendi (D) 65 33 59 40 55 41
CA 11 McNerney (D) 54 44 45 54 45 53
CA 12 Speier (D) 74 24 72 27 67 29
CA 13 Stark (D) 74 24 71 28 67 30
CA 14 Eshoo (D) 73 25 68 30 62 34
CA 15 Honda (D) 68 30 63 36 60 36
CA 16 Lofgren (D) 70 29 63 36 64 33
CA 17 Farr (D) 72 26 66 33 60 33
CA 18 Cardoza (D) 59 39 49 50 53 44
CA 19 Denham (R) 46 52 38 61 39 58
CA 20 Costa (D) 60 39 51 48 55 44
CA 21 Nunes (R) 42 56 34 65 37 61
CA 22 McCarthy, Kevin (R) 38 60 31 68 33 64
CA 23 Capps (D) 66 32 58 40 54 40
CA 24 Gallegly (R) 51 48 43 56 43 54
CA 25 McKeon (R) 49 48 40 59 42 56
CA 26 Dreier (R) 51 47 44 55 44 53
CA 27 Sherman (D) 66 32 59 39 60 36
CA 28 Berman (D) 76 22 71 28 73 24
CA 29 Schiff (D) 68 30 61 37 58 38
CA 30 Waxman (D) 70 28 66 33 68 28
CA 31 Becerra (D) 80 18 77 22 77 19
CA 32 Chu (D) 68 30 62 37 67 31
CA 33 Bass, Karen (D) 87 12 83 16 83 14
CA 34 Roybal-Allard (D) 75 23 69 30 72 26
CA 35 Waters (D) 84 14 79 20 82 17
CA 36 Hahn (D) 64 34 59 40 57 39
CA 37 Richardson (D) 80 19 74 25 76 22
CA 38 Napolitano (D) 71 27 65 34 70 28
CA 39 Sanchez, Linda (D) 65 32 59 40 62 36
CA 40 Royce (R) 47 51 39 60 41 56
CA 41 Lewis, Jerry (R) 44 54 37 62 41 56
CA 42 Miller, Gary (R) 45 53 37 62 39 59
CA 43 Baca (D) 68 30 58 41 64 34
CA 44 Calvert (R) 50 49 40 59 44 53
CA 45 Bono Mack (R) 52 47 43 56 47 51
CA 46 Rohrabacher (R) 48 50 42 57 42 55
CA 47 Sanchez, Loretta (D) 60 38 49 50 56 42
CA 48 Campbell (R) 49 49 40 58 40 58
CA 49 Issa (R) 45 53 36 63 39 59
CA 50 Bilbray (R) 51 47 44 55 43 54
CA 51 Filner (D) 63 35 53 46 57 41
CA 52 Hunter (R) 45 53 38 61 40 57
CA 53 Davis, Susan (D) 68 30 61 38 58 38
CO 1 DeGette (D) 74 24 68 31 61 33
CO 2 Polis (D) 64 34 58 41 52 43
CO 3 Tipton (R) 47 50 44 55 39 54
CO 4 Gardner (R) 49 50 41 58 37 57
CO 5 Lamborn (R) 40 59 33 66 31 63
CO 6 Coffman (R) 46 53 39 60 37 60
CO 7 Perlmutter (D) 59 40 51 48 50 49
CT 1 Larson (D) 66 33 60 39 62 33
CT 2 Courtney (D) 59 40 54 44 54 40
CT 3 DeLauro (D) 63 36 56 42 60 34
CT 4 Himes (D) 60 40 52 46 53 43
CT 5 Murphy, Chris (D) 56 42 49 49 52 43
DE AL Carney (D) 62 37 53 46 55 42
FL 1 Miller, Jeff (R) 32 67 28 72 31 69
FL 2 Southerland (R) 45 54 46 54 47 53
FL 3 Brown (D) 73 26 65 35 65 35
FL 4 Crenshaw (R) 38 61 31 69 34 66
FL 5 Nugent (R) 43 56 41 58 46 54
FL 6 Stearns (R) 43 56 39 61 42 58
FL 7 Mica (R) 46 53 43 57 46 54
FL 8 Webster (R) 53 47 45 55 46 54
FL 9 Bilirakis (R) 47 52 43 57 46 54
FL 10 Young, Bill (R) 51 47 49 51 51 49
FL 11 Castor (D) 66 33 58 41 61 39
FL 12 Ross, Dennis (R) 49 50 42 58 45 55
FL 13 Buchanan (R) 47 52 44 56 46 55
FL 14 Mack (R) 42 57 38 62 39 61
FL 15 Posey (R) 48 51 43 57 46 54
FL 16 Rooney (R) 47 52 46 54 47 53
FL 17 Wilson, Frederica (D) 87 12 83 17 85 15
FL 18 Ros-Lehtinen (R) 51 49 46 54 43 57
FL 19 Deutch (D) 65 34 66 34 73 27
FL 20 Wasserman Schultz (D) 63 36 64 36 69 31
FL 21 Diaz-Balart (R) 49 51 43 57 42 58
FL 22 West (R) 52 48 52 48 52 48
FL 23 Hastings, Alcee (D) 83 17 76 24 80 20
FL 24 Adams (R) 49 51 45 55 47 53
FL 25 Rivera (R) 49 50 44 56 45 55
GA 1 Kingston (R) 36 63 34 66 38 62
GA 2 Bishop, Sanford (D) 54 46 50 50 52 48
GA 3 Westmoreland (R) 35 64 29 70 33 67
GA 4 Johnson, Hank (D) 79 21 71 28 70 30
GA 5 Lewis, John (D) 79 20 74 26 73 27
GA 6 Price, Tom (R) 37 62 29 70 32 68
GA 7 Woodall (R) 39 60 30 70 31 69
GA 8 Scott, Austin (R) 43 56 39 61 42 58
GA 9 Graves, Tom (R) 24 75 23 77 29 71
GA 10 Broun (R) 38 61 35 65 37 63
GA 11 Gringrey (R) 33 66 29 71 35 66
GA 12 Barrow (D) 54 45 49 50 52 48
GA 13 Scott, David (D) 71 28 60 40 57 43
HI 1 Hanabusa (D) 70 28 53 47 55 39
HI 2 Hirono (D) 73 25 56 44 56 36
IA 1 Braley (D) 58 41 53 46 52 45
IA 2 Loebsack (D) 60 38 55 44 53 43
IA 3 Boswell (D) 54 44 50 50 49 48
IA 4 Latham (R) 53 45 48 51 48 49
IA 5 King, Steve (R) 44 54 39 60 40 57
ID 1 Labrador (R) 36 62 30 69 28 68
ID 2 Simpson (R) 36 61 30 69 28 67
IL 1 Rush (D) 87 13 83 17 84 16
IL 2 Jackson (D) 90 10 84 16 83 17
IL 3 Lipinski (D) 64 35 59 41 58 40
IL 4 Gutierrez (D) 85 13 79 21 79 20
IL 5 Quigley (D) 73 26 67 33 66 34
IL 6 Roskam (R) 56 43 47 53 44 53
IL 7 Davis, Danny (D) 88 12 83 17 83 16
IL 8 Walsh (R) 56 43 44 56 42 56
IL 9 Schakowsky (D) 72 26 68 32 67 31
IL 10 Dold (R) 61 38 53 47 51 47
IL 11 Kinzinger (R) 53 45 46 53 48 50
IL 12 Costello (D) 54 44 52 48 54 43
IL 13 Biggert (R) 54 45 45 55 42 55
IL 14 Hultgren (R) 55 44 44 55 43 54
IL 15 Johnson, Tim (R) 48 50 41 59 43 54
IL 16 Manzullo (R) 53 45 44 55 43 54
IL 17 Schilling (R) 56 42 51 48 54 44
IL 18 Schock (R) 48 50 42 58 44 54
IL 19 Shimkus (R) 44 54 39 61 41 56
IN 1 Visclosky (D) 62 37 55 44 56 42
IN 2 Donnelly (D) 54 45 43 56 45 53
IN 3 Stutzman (R) 43 56 31 68 33 66
IN 4 Rokita (R) 43 56 30 69 32 66
IN 5 Burton (R) 40 59 28 71 30 69
IN 6 Pence (R) 46 53 35 64 40 59
IN 7 Carson (D) 71 28 58 42 56 43
IN 8 Bucshon (R) 47 51 38 62 42 57
IN 9 Young, Todd (R) 49 50 40 59 42 56
KS 1 Huelskamp (R) 30 69 26 72 29 67
KS 2 Jenkins (R) 43 55 39 59 41 54
KS 3 Yoder (R) 51 48 44 55 42 53
KS 4 Pompeo (R) 40 58 34 64 37 59
KY 1 Whitfield (R) 37 62 36 63 40 58
KY 2 Guthrie (R) 38 61 34 65 37 62
KY 3 Yarmuth (D) 56 43 51 49 50 48
KY 4 Davis, Geoff (R) 38 60 36 63 37 61
KY 5 Rogers, Hal (R) 31 67 39 61 42 57
KY 6 Chandler (D) 43 55 41 58 42 56
LA 1 Scalise (R) 26 73 28 71 31 67
LA 2 Richmond (D) 74 25 75 24 76 22
LA 3 Landry (R) 37 61 41 58 45 52
LA 4 Fleming (R) 40 59 40 59 43 55
LA 5 Alexander (R) 37 62 37 62 40 57
LA 6 Cassidy (R) 41 57 40 59 43 55
LA 7 Boustany (R) 35 63 39 60 42 55
MA 1 Olver (D) 64 34 63 35 56 33
MA 2 Neal (D) 59 39 59 40 58 35
MA 3 McGovern (D) 59 39 59 40 59 35
MA 4 Frank (D) 64 35 65 33 65 29
MA 5 Tsongas (D) 59 39 57 41 57 36
MA 6 Tierney (D) 58 41 58 41 57 36
MA 7 Markey (D) 65 33 66 33 64 29
MA 8 Capuano (D) 86 14 79 19 73 15
MA 9 Lynch (D) 60 39 63 36 60 33
MA 10 Keating (D) 55 44 56 43 54 39
MD 1 Harris (R) 40 58 36 62 40 57
MD 2 Ruppersberger (D) 60 38 54 45 57 41
MD 3 Sarbanes (D) 59 39 54 45 55 41
MD 4 Edwards (D) 85 14 78 21 77 21
MD 5 Hoyer (D) 65 33 57 42 57 41
MD 6 Bartlett (R) 40 58 34 65 36 61
MD 7 Cummings (D) 79 20 73 26 73 25
MD 8 Hollen (D) 74 25 69 30 66 31
ME 1 Pingree (D) 61 38 55 43 50 43
ME 2 Michaud (D) 55 43 52 46 48 45
MI 1 Benishek (R) 50 48 46 53 45 52
MI 2 Huizenga (R) 48 51 39 60 38 59
MI 3 Amash (R) 49 49 40 59 38 60
MI 4 Camp (R) 50 48 44 55 44 54
MI 5 Kildee (D) 64 35 59 41 61 37
MI 6 Upton (R) 54 45 46 53 45 52
MI 7 Walberg (R) 52 46 45 54 46 51
MI 8 Rogers, Mike J. (R) 53 46 45 54 47 51
MI 9 Peters (D) 56 43 49 51 47 51
MI 10 Miller, Candice (R) 48 50 43 57 45 53
MI 11 McCotter (R) 54 45 47 53 47 51
MI 12 Levin (D) 65 33 61 39 61 37
MI 13 Clarke, Hansen (D) 85 15 81 19 80 19
MI 14 Conyers (D) 86 14 83 17 81 18
MI 15 Dingell (D) 66 33 62 38 60 38
MN 1 Walz (D) 51 47 47 51 45 49
MN 2 Kline (R) 48 50 45 54 44 51
MN 3 Paulson (R) 52 46 48 51 46 50
MN 4 McCollum (D) 64 34 62 37 57 37
MN 5 Ellison (D) 74 24 71 28 63 29
MN 6 Bachmann (R) 45 53 42 57 42 52
MN 7 Peterson (D) 47 50 43 55 40 54
MN 8 Cravaack (R) 53 45 53 46 49 44
MO 1 Clay (D) 80 19 75 25 72 26
MO 2 Akin (R) 44 55 40 60 39 59
MO 3 Carnahan (D) 60 39 57 43 54 43
MO 4 Hartzler (R) 38 61 35 64 40 58
MO 5 Cleaver (D) 64 35 59 40 60 37
MO 6 Graves, Sam (R) 45 54 42 57 44 53
MO 7 Long (R) 35 63 32 67 36 62
MO 8 Emerson (R) 36 62 36 64 39 59
MO 9 Luetkemeyer (R) 44 55 41 59 42 55
MS 1 Nunnelee (R) 38 62 37 62 40 59
MS 2 Thompson, Bennie (D) 66 34 59 40 57 41
MS 3 Harper (R) 38 62 34 65 35 64
MS 4 Palazzo (R) 32 68 31 68 33 65
MT AL Rehberg (R) 47 49 39 59 33 58
NC 1 Butterfield (D) 62 37 57 42 57 42
NC 2 Ellmers (R) 52 47 46 54 46 53
NC 3 Jones (R) 38 61 32 68 35 64
NC 4 Price, David (D) 63 36 55 44 53 46
NC 5 Foxx (R) 38 61 33 66 33 66
NC 6 Coble (R) 36 63 30 69 32 67
NC 7 McIntyre (D) 47 52 44 56 48 52
NC 8 Kissell (D) 53 47 45 54 46 54
NC 9 Myrick (R) 45 55 36 63 36 63
NC 10 McHenry (R) 36 63 33 67 34 65
NC 11 Shuler (D) 47 52 43 57 40 58
NC 12 Watt (D) 70 29 63 37 57 42
NC 13 Miller, Brad (D) 59 40 52 47 49 50
ND AL Berg (R) 45 53 36 63 33 61
NE 1 Fortenberry (R) 44 54 36 63 36 59
NE 2 Terry (R) 50 49 38 60 39 57
NE 3 Smith, Adrian (R) 30 69 24 75 25 71
NH 1 Guinta (R) 53 47 48 51 46 49
NH 2 Bass, Charlie (R) 56 43 52 47 48 47
NJ 1 Andrews (D) 65 34 61 39 63 34
NJ 2 LoBiondo (R) 54 45 49 50 54 43
NJ 3 Runyan (R) 52 47 49 51 54 43
NJ 4 Smith, Chris (R) 47 52 44 56 50 46
NJ 5 Garrett (R) 45 54 43 57 45 52
NJ 6 Pallone (D) 60 39 57 43 61 35
NJ 7 Lance (R) 51 48 47 53 48 49
NJ 8 Pascrell (D) 63 36 59 41 60 37
NJ 9 Rothman (D) 61 38 59 41 63 34
NJ 10 Payne (D) 87 13 82 18 83 16
NJ 11 Frelinghuysen (R) 45 54 42 58 43 54
NJ 12 Holt (D) 58 41 54 46 56 40
NJ 13 Sires (D) 75 24 69 31 72 25
NM 1 Heinrich (D) 60 40 51 48 48 47
NM 2 Pearce (R) 49 50 41 58 43 54
NM 3 Lujan (D) 61 38 54 45 52 43
NV 1 Berkley (D) 64 34 57 42 56 41
NV 2 Amodei (R) 49 49 41 57 37 57
NV 3 Heck (R) 55 43 49 50 49 48
NY 1 Bishop, Tim (D) 52 48 49 49 52 44
NY 2 Israel (D) 56 43 53 45 57 39
NY 3 King, Peter (R) 47 52 47 52 52 44
NY 4 McCarthy, Carolyn (D) 58 41 55 44 59 38
NY 5 Ackerman (D) 63 36 63 36 67 30
NY 6 Meeks (D) 89 11 84 15 87 11
NY 7 Crowley (D) 79 20 74 25 75 21
NY 8 Nadler (D) 74 26 72 27 74 18
NY 9 Turner (R) 55 44 56 44 67 30
NY 10 Towns (D) 91 9 86 13 88 8
NY 11 Clarke, Yvette (D) 91 9 86 13 83 9
NY 12 Velazquez (D) 86 13 80 19 77 15
NY 13 Grimm (R) 49 51 45 55 52 44
NY 14 Maloney (D) 78 21 74 25 70 23
NY 15 Rangel (D) 93 6 90 9 87 7
NY 16 Serrano (D) 95 5 89 10 92 5
NY 17 Engel (D) 72 28 67 33 69 27
NY 18 Lowey (D) 62 38 58 42 58 39
NY 19 Hayworth (R) 51 48 45 54 47 49
NY 20 Gibson (R) 51 48 46 54 44 51
NY 21 Tonko (D) 58 40 55 43 56 39
NY 22 Hinchey (D) 59 39 54 45 51 42
NY 23 Owens (D) 52 47 47 51 47 49
NY 24 Hannah (R) 51 48 47 53 47 48
NY 25 Buerkle (R) 56 43 50 48 51 45
NY 26 Hochul (D) 46 52 43 55 44 51
NY 27 Higgins (D) 54 44 53 45 53 41
NY 28 Slaughter (D) 69 30 63 36 60 35
NY 29 Reed (R) 48 51 42 56 43 53
OH 1 Chabot (R) 55 44 49 51 46 51
OH 2 Schmidt (R) 40 59 36 64 34 63
OH 3 Turner (R) 47 51 46 54 45 52
OH 4 Jordan (R) 38 60 34 65 35 62
OH 5 Latta (R) 45 53 39 61 37 59
OH 6 Johnson, Bill (R) 48 50 49 51 47 49
OH 7 Austria (R) 45 54 43 57 42 56
OH 8 Boehner (R) 38 60 35 64 36 61
OH 9 Kaptur (D) 62 36 58 42 55 41
OH 10 Kucinich (D) 59 39 58 41 53 42
OH 11 Fudge (D) 85 14 81 18 79 18
OH 12 Tiberi (R) 53 46 49 51 46 52
OH 13 Sutton (D) 57 42 56 44 53 44
OH 14 LaTourette (R) 49 49 47 53 44 52
OH 15 Stivers (R) 54 45 50 50 44 52
OH 16 Renacci (R) 48 50 46 54 42 53
OH 17 Ryan, Tim (D) 62 36 63 37 60 35
OH 18 Gibbs (R) 45 52 43 57 41 55
OK 1 Sullivan (R) 36 64 35 65 37 62
OK 2 Boren (D) 34 66 41 59 47 52
OK 3 Lucas (R) 27 73 28 72 34 65
OK 4 Cole (R) 34 66 33 67 38 61
OK 5 Lankford (R) 41 59 36 64 38 62
OR 1 (D) 61 36 55 44 50 44
OR 2 Walden (R) 43 54 38 61 35 60
OR 3 Blumenauer (D) 71 26 67 33 61 32
OR 4 DeFazio (D) 54 43 49 49 44 49
OR 5 Schrader (D) 54 43 49 50 47 48
PA 1 Brady, Bob (D) 88 12 84 15 84 15
PA 2 Fattah (D) 90 10 87 12 87 12
PA 3 Kelly (R) 49 49 47 53 47 51
PA 4 Altmire (D) 44 55 45 54 46 52
PA 5 Thompson, Glenn (R) 44 55 39 61 38 59
PA 6 Gerlach (R) 58 41 52 48 49 49
PA 7 Meehan (R) 56 43 53 47 51 47
PA 8 Fitzpatrick (R) 54 45 51 48 51 46
PA 9 Schuster (R) 35 63 33 67 34 64
PA 10 Marino (R) 45 54 40 60 41 56
PA 11 Barletta (R) 57 42 53 47 54 43
PA 12 Critz (D) 49 50 51 49 55 44
PA 13 Schwarz (D) 59 41 56 43 56 42
PA 14 Doyle (D) 70 29 69 30 70 28
PA 15 Dent (R) 56 43 50 50 49 48
PA 16 Pitts (R) 48 51 38 61 36 62
PA 17 Holden (D) 48 51 42 58 41 56
PA 18 Murphy, Tim (R) 44 55 46 54 47 52
PA 19 Platts (R) 43 56 36 64 36 61
RI 1 Cicilline (D) 65 33 62 36 63 31
RI 2 Langevin (D) 61 37 57 41 60 33
SC 1 Scott, Tim (R) 42 57 39 61 38 59
SC 2 Wilson, Joe (R) 45 54 39 60 39 58
SC 3 Duncan, Jeff (R) 35 64 34 66 35 63
SC 4 Gowdy (R) 38 60 34 65 33 64
SC 5 Mulvaney (R) 46 53 42 57 43 55
SC 6 Clyburn (D) 64 35 61 39 58 40
SD AL Noem (R) 45 53 38 60 38 60
TN 1 Roe (R) 29 70 31 68 38 61
TN 2 Duncan, John (R) 34 64 35 64 39 59
TN 3 Fleischmann (R) 37 62 38 61 41 57
TN 4 DesJarlais (R) 34 64 41 58 49 50
TN 5 Cooper (D) 56 43 52 48 57 42
TN 6 Black (R) 37 62 40 60 49 49
TN 7 Blackburn (R) 34 65 33 66 40 59
TN 8 Fincher (R) 43 56 47 53 51 48
TN 9 Cohen (D) 77 22 70 30 63 36
TX 1 Gohmert (R) 31 69 31 69 33 68
TX 2 Poe (R) 40 60 37 63 37 63
TX 3 Johnson, Sam (R) 42 57 33 67 30 70
TX 4 Hall (R) 30 69 30 70 34 66
TX 5 Hensarling (R) 36 63 33 67 34 66
TX 6 Barton (R) 40 60 34 66 34 66
TX 7 Culberson (R) 41 58 36 64 31 69
TX 8 Brady, Kevin (R) 26 74 28 72 31 69
TX 9 Green, Al (D) 77 23 70 30 69 31
TX 10 McCaul (R) 44 55 38 62 34 67
TX 11 Conaway (R) 24 76 22 78 25 75
TX 12 Granger (R) 36 63 33 67 36 64
TX 13 Thornberry (R) 23 77 22 78 26 74
TX 14 Paul (R) 33 66 33 67 36 64
TX 15 Hinojosa (D) 60 40 49 51 54 46
TX 16 Reyes (D) 66 34 57 44 59 41
TX 17 Flores (R) 32 67 30 70 32 68
TX 18 Jackson-Lee (D) 77 22 72 28 72 28
TX 19 Neugebauer (R) 27 72 23 77 25 75
TX 20 Gonzalez (D) 63 36 55 45 58 42
TX 21 Smith, Lamar (R) 41 58 34 66 31 69
TX 22 Olson (R) 41 58 36 64 33 67
TX 23 Canseco (R) 51 48 43 57 47 54
TX 24 Marchant (R) 44 55 35 65 32 68
TX 25 Doggett (D) 59 40 54 46 47 53
TX 26 Burgess (R) 41 58 35 65 38 62
TX 27 Farenthold (R) 53 46 45 55 50 50
TX 28 Cuellar (D) 56 44 46 54 50 50
TX 29 Green, Gene (D) 62 38 56 44 57 43
TX 30 Johnson, E.B. (D) 82 18 75 25 74 26
TX 31 Carter (R) 42 58 33 67 32 69
TX 32 Sessions (R) 46 53 40 60 36 64
UT 1 Bishop, Rob (R) 33 64 25 73 27 68
UT 2 Matheson (D) 39 57 31 66 31 67
UT 3 Chaffetz (R) 29 67 20 77 24 75
VA 1 Wittman (R) 48 51 39 60 39 58
VA 2 Rigell (R) 51 49 42 58 43 55
VA 3 Scott, Bobby (D) 76 24 66 33 66 32
VA 4 Forbes (R) 50 49 43 57 44 54
VA 5 Hurt (R) 48 51 43 56 41 55
VA 6 Goodlatte (R) 42 57 36 63 37 60
VA 7 Cantor (R) 46 53 38 61 37 61
VA 8 Moran (D) 69 30 64 35 57 38
VA 9 Griffith (R) 40 59 39 60 42 55
VA 10 Wolf (R) 53 46 44 55 41 56
VA 11 Connolly (D) 57 42 49 50 45 52
VT AL Welch (D) 68 31 59 39 51 41
WA 1 Inslee (D) 62 36 56 42 53 42
WA 2 Larsen (D) 56 42 51 47 48 46
WA 3 Herrera Beutler (R) 52 46 48 50 46 48
WA 4 Hastings, Doc (R) 40 58 35 63 34 62
WA 5 McMorris Rodgers (R) 46 52 41 57 40 56
WA 6 Dicks (D) 57 41 53 45 52 43
WA 7 McDermott (D) 84 15 79 19 72 21
WA 8 Reichert (R) 57 42 51 48 49 47
WA 9 Smith, Adam (D) 59 40 53 46 53 43
WI 1 Ryan, Paul (R) 51 48 46 54 45 51
WI 2 Baldwin (D) 69 30 62 37 58 36
WI 3 Kind (D) 58 41 51 48 49 46
WI 4 Moore (D) 75 24 70 30 66 30
WI 5 Sensenbrenner (R) 41 58 36 63 35 62
WI 6 Petri (R) 50 49 43 56 42 53
WI 7 Duffy (R) 56 43 50 49 48 47
WI 8 Ribble (R) 54 45 44 55 43 52
WV 1 McKinley (R) 42 57 42 58 43 54
WV 2 Capito (R) 44 55 42 57 44 54
WV 3 Rahall (D) 42 56 46 53 51 47
WY AL Lummis (R) 33 65 29 69 28 69

Continue reading Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008

HI-Sen: Inouye to Seek Re-Election

I guess he’s learned how to quit Ted Stevens:

Hawaii Democrat Daniel K. Inouye , the third longest-serving U.S. Senate incumbent, has affirmed his plans to run for re-election in 2010, rebuffing speculation that he might not choose to run for a ninth term at age 86.

“Make no mistake, I am a candidate for re-election in 2010. I am calling upon my friends and supporters to once again stand with me,” Inouye said in a statement provided to CQ Politics. “I am taking nothing for granted in what I expect for be an exciting and vigorous campaign. I am looking forward to it.”

Even though I’m not personally too fond of Inouye,  this is probably for the best, since I’m a lot less fond of one of his would-be successors, former Rep. Ed Case. Case said he backs Inouye’s re-election, so we won’t be seeing him in the Senate any time soon.

Meanwhile, Gov. Linda Lingle (R) is term-limited, and it’s possible she’ll try running against Inouye. The coming vacancy in the statehouse might also prompt a round of musical chairs. In the simplest scenario, Case could run for governor himself. Alternately, if Reps. Mazie Hirono (HI-02) and/or Neil Abercrombie run for governor, Case might run for either of those two House seats. No matter what, decisions will have to be made soon.

So let me ask this: If Hirono or Abercrombie decide to try moving up, who do you like as replacements? I’d want to see State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (who very narrowly lost the primary to Hirono in 2006) give it another shot if Hirono goes for HI-Gov. Your thoughts?

Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Florida Precinct Results

According to the Census Bureau, thirty of Florida’s 67 counties are split between multiple Congressional districts. (The remainder are all located entirely within single CDs.) Unfortunately for us, the state of Florida does not publish results by CD, which means that calculating pres-by-CD for FL requires digging down into precinct-level results.

Frustratingly, the Florida Division of elections doesn’t publish that information either. However, there is good news: Florida’s county-level election departments almost universally do. I’ve gone through all thirty split-county websites to try to track down this information. I was successful in all but two counties – let us know if you have any luck with Alachua and Jefferson. (UPDATE: Jefferson County sent me a spreadsheet in response to my email request to them, which you can find here.)

Anyhow, I’ve posted links for every set of precinct data I could find in this new spreadsheet. The linked files are in a variety of formats. Some are nicely parsed Excel or CSV files, some are clean TXT or HTML files, and some are thorny PDFs. (One non-split county, Glades, even posted a handwritten chart!) The most sophisticated sites will give you a choice of formats.

No matter how you slice it (and at the precinct level, you’re slicing it awful thin), there’s a lot of data to work with. Miami-Dade’s file, for instance, is over 2,700 pages. As Crisitunity observed, we’ve picked off most of the low-hanging fruit already, so bigger projects are what remains. But as Crisitunity also noted, with a million nerds pecking away at a million keyboards, we can accomplish just about anything we set our nerdly minds to.

So if you want to start tackling the big prize of Florida, check out the spreadsheet and have at it! And if you have any thoughts or strategies for how best to pursue this project, please share them in comments.

IL-Sen: Schakowsky Says She’ll Run if There’s a Special (Maybe Roskam, Too)

The Seminal has a great scoop:

Last night at the Midwest Academy Awards and 35th Anniversary Celebration in Washington, DC, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown introduced Illinois Representative Jan Schakowsky by saying, “We may have a special election in Illinois, and if Jan Schakowsky runs, I’ll support her.”

At the end of her speech, Schakowsky threw her hat in the ring, announcing that she was “passing around a clipboard” for people to sign up to be on an organizing committee for her “Senate race, and a basket for donations will follow right behind.” The audience cheered.

In related news, it looks like GOP Rep. Peter Roskam might be interested as well:

Kirk isn’t the only credible Illinois Republican mulling a Senate bid. A source close to Rep. Peter J. Roskam said the second-term congressman is also “very interested” in running for the Senate seat and wouldn’t automatically defer to Kirk. Roskam has a more conservative voting record than Kirk and has won election to a suburban Chicago seat during two rough election cycles for the GOP.

This is potentially great news. I’d love to see Roskam and Kirk bash each other to bits in a GOP primary. And I think, despite Kirk’s seniority, there’s a good chance Roskam could win by appealing to conservative elements in the Republican Party. Who knows – maybe the Club for Growth would get involved on his behalf.

Jeremiah has more in a diary here.

LA-04: Carmouche Concedes

CNN:

Democrat Paul Carmouche Wednesday conceded his race for a seat in Congress to physician John Fleming in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district.

Louisianans went to the polls Saturday to choose between Carmouche, the former Caddo Parrish district attorney, and Fleming. Unofficial results show Fleming leading Carmouche by less than 400 votes.

“Of more than 92,000 votes cast throughout the 13 parishes of this district, it appears that our campaign has fallen slightly short,” Carmouche said. “I will not ask for a recount of any of the paper ballots, and I offer my warmest congratulations to Dr. Fleming.”

A tough, tough loss – the sub-0.4% margin of victory makes this one of the closest races of 2008. With a Republican incumbent, even a freshman, this seat will probably be very challenging for Democrats to contest in 2010.

This also now means that the only outstanding House race is VA-05, where Rep. Virgile Goode, trailing by 745 votes, has asked for a recount. The results of the recount are expected next week, but I’d be pretty shocked if the outcome changes.

IL-Gov: Blago Arrested on Corruption Charges

Whoa:

Gov. Rod Blagojevich and his chief of staff were arrested today by FBI agents on federal corruption charges.

A three-year federal corruption investigation of pay-to-play politics in Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s administration has expanded to include his impending selection of a new U.S. senator to succeed President-elect Barack Obama, the Tribune has learned.

Federal authorities got approval from a judge before the November general election to secretly record the governor, sources told the Tribune, and among their concerns was whether the selection process might be tainted. That possibility has become a focus in an intensifying investigation that has included recordings of the governor and the cooperation of one of his closest friends.

Man, I don’t even know what to say.

UPDATE by Diego Infierno: Wow:

Throughout the intercepted conversations, Blagojevich also allegedly spent significant time weighing the option of appointing himself to the open Senate seat and expressed a variety of reasons for doing so, including: frustration at being “stuck” as governor; a belief that he will be able to obtain greater resources if he is indicted as a sitting Senator as opposed to a sitting governor; a desire to remake his image in consideration of a possible run for President in 2016; avoiding impeachment by the Illinois legislature; making corporate contacts that would be of value to him after leaving public office; facilitating his wife’s employment as a lobbyist; and generating speaking fees should he decide to leave public office.

In the earliest intercepted conversation about the Senate seat described in the affidavit, Blagojevich told Deputy Governor A on November 3 that if he is not going to get anything of value for the open seat, then he will take it for himself: “if . . . they’re not going to offer anything of any value, then I might just take it.” Later that day, speaking to Advisor A, Blagojevich said: “I’m going to keep this Senate option for me a real possibility, you know, and therefore I can drive a hard bargain.” He added later that the seat “is a [expletive] valuable thing, you just don’t give it away for nothing.”

What an asshole!