Author: DavidNYC

Rasmussen Reports (6/10, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):

Hagan (D): 39 (48)

Dole (R-inc.): 53 (47)

Other: 3 (2)

Undecided: 5 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

A fourteen-point swing in one month is the kind of thing which always calls one poll or the other into question. In this case, though, we have a third poll to go by. Rasmussen tested the waters here in April and found Dole leading 52-39. That sure makes the middle poll from May look like noise, which Ras suggests may have been due to a post-primary bounce for Hagan. Since then, Dole’s gone up with TV ads, which might have helped bring Hagan down to earth.

Dole is doing very well among Republicans, winning them 90-6. Hagan, meawhile, is at just 68-25 among Dems. Frustratingly, Rasmussen refuses to detail the makeup of its samples (even though they provide crosstabs) so we have no idea what the D-R-I split was here.

The news on the presidential front is a lot better: McCain  edges Obama by just two points, 45-43. Note, though, that Rasmussen has shown NC-Pres virtually tied for three months, with no bounces or dips as with NC-Sen. Still, though, I like the prospect of Obama coattails here.

SSP currently races this race as Lean Republican.

Polls close in Iowa at 10pm Eastern and in California at 11pm Eastern.  We’ll use this thread to follow the results in two hot congressional primaries:

Iowa: IA-03 (D) | Results: Associated Press

California: CA-04 (R) | Results: Associated Press

2:58AM (James): Second time’s the charm. After an embarrassing primary loss in 2006 to a no-money candidate, Democrat Russ Warner has clinched the nomination in CA-26 against the same opponent. And in CA-42, Ed Chau wins.

2:29AM (James): With 53% reporting, the AP has called CA-04 for Conservative Icon Tom McClintock. Good. In many ways, McClintock fits the Woody Jenkins/Jim Oberweis candidate model: hardcore conservatism and a record of high-profile election losses. As a cherry on top, we have a rather extreme case of carpetbagging here, too. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy (indeed, the odds are rather long) for Charlie Brown, but McClintock’s candidacy provides him with some good dynamics for him to exploit.

1:48AM (James): 40% in and CA-04 still hasn’t budged an inch: 53-39 McClintock.

1:13AM (James): I think they’re taking a ganja break in CA-04, but the latest numbers, with 22% in, still favor McClintock over Ose by 53-39. Theodore Terbolizard is only garnering 2% of the vote so far. Sadly, it appears that we won’t have a new terbolizard to lead us out of the darkness.

12:23AM (James): A few other updates.  The early votes in CA-50 are in, and Nick Leibham is up by 55-45 over Cheryl Ede. In CA-42, people-powered Ron Shepston has powered himself to 22% and third place in the early vote.

12:08AM (James): With 11% in, it’s still 53-39 for the Conservative Icon.

11:40PM (James): With 5% in, McClintock has a 53-39 lead over Ose.

11:14PM (James): With 79% in, the AP has called IA-03 for Lenny Boswell.

10:59PM (James): With 70% in, Boswell has a 58-42 lead. In the IA-04 primary, Becky Greenwald has 50% with 13% of precincts reporting.

10:43PM: With 60% in, Boswell’s lead has widened to 57-43. My back-of-the-envelope says that Fallon would need 60% of the outstanding vote just to pull even – in other words, he’d have to run 35 points ahead of where he’s been all night.

10:26PM (James): With 46% reporting, Boswell is leading Fallon by 56-44.

Polls close in New Mexico at 9pm Eastern.  We’ll use this thread to follow the results in a number of hot congressional primaries:

• NM-Sen (R)
• NM-01 (D & R)
• NM-02 (D & R)
• NM-03 (D)

Results: Associated Press

4:34AM: Pearce wins. Time for sleep. What a great evening.

3:42AM (James): 99% in, and Pearce still holds a 2300 vote lead. The AP still hasn’t called it, but with 11 precincts outstanding, I see no way for Wilson to make up the difference.

3:05AM (James): Harry Teague pulls this one out of the fire with a 53-47 win according to the AP (95% reporting). Pearce has a 2350 vote lead over Wilson with 97% in.

2:14AM (James): 92% of the vote is in now in the 2nd CD, and Teague has expanded his lead to 53-47 (1800 votes).

2:13AM (James): 96% in, and Pearce is holding on to a 2400 vote lead over Wilson.

1:36AM (James): This could be bad news for Harry Teague. According to Heath Haussamen, results from Doña Ana County are being delayed due to problems with a rental truck.  The ballots won’t be counted for “some time”, according to local officials. Doña Ana is the home base of one Bill McCamley, who is a county commissioner there. As Samuel L. Jackson would say, hang on to yer butts.

12:53AM (James): Tinsley wins with 31%, according to the AP. In the Senate race, Pearce is holding on to his 52-48 lead with 91% reporting.

12:38AM (James): With 89% in, Pearcey is sitting at 52-48. In the 2nd CD, Teague is up by the same margin with 87% reporting.  And the AP has called NM-03 for Lujan.

12:35AM (James): The AP calls NM-01 for Martin Heinrich! I would expect a similar call for Ben Ray Lujan in the 3rd CD soon.

12:23AM: With 85% reporting, Pearce has moved back out to a 52-48 lead. It may not sound like much, but it is – Wilson would need 60% of the remaining votes to pull into a tie. That’s almost 24% better than what she’s been garnering all night. Meanwhile, in NM-02 (D), Bill McCamley also trails Harry Teague by 52-48, but faces an almost identical situation to Wilson’s.

12:03AM (James): With 80% in, Pearce is still up 51-49.  COME ON, PEARCEY!  Teague is clinging to a 51-49 lead with 83% in.

11:48PM (James): With 71% in, Pearce is up by 51-49. In the 2nd CD, with 76% reporting, Teague is clinging to his 52-48 lead, while Tinsley enjoys a 10% lead on his closest competitor. In the 3rd CD, Lujan has surged ahead big-time: he now leads Wiviott by 41-28 with 85% in.

11:22PM (James): With 55% in, we’re at 52-48 for Pearce. In the 2nd CD, Teague is also up by only 52-48.

11:07PM (James): With 44% in, Pearce is holding onto his 52-48 lead.  Heinrich is holding comfortably, but Teague only has a 53-47 lead over McCamley in 59% lead. Tinsley has some breathing room, and Wiviott has pulled to a 5% lead in the 3rd district with 60% in.

10:45PM (James): With 30% in, Pearce leads by 52-48. In the 2nd CD, Teague leads McCamley by 56-44 with 42% in. In the GOP primary, Tinsley has a slight lead. In the 3rd CD, Lujan has taken a 10% lead over Wiviott with 26% in.

10:31PM: With 17% in, Pearce has a 57-43 lead.

10:02PM (James): With 8% in, Wilson leads Pearce by 53-47. In the 2nd CD, Newman has taken a small lead over Tinsley and Dunn with 20% in, and Teague has a big lead in the Democratic race. In the 3rd CD, Wiviott leads by 2% over Lujan with 2% of precincts reporting.

9:50PM: Fifty minutes after polls have closed, and very few precincts have reported in. (Remember the problems NM had in tallying its presidential primary results?) Anyhow, with just a handful of votes in, Wilson leads Pearce 61-39. In the 1st CD, Heinrich has a sizable early lead over Vigil-Goron and Grisham. In the 2nd CD, Teague has a twenty-point lead over McCamley on our side, while there is a tight battle for first place between Tinsley and Dunn for the GOPers. Other results are either not in or too minimal to be worth relaying.

As James detailed last week, there are a ton of important primaries tonight. Here’s when the polls close, state by state, along with the key races in each (all times Eastern):

8pm:

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Alabama (AL-02 D & R; AL-05 R)

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp New Jersey (NJ-Sen D; NJ-03 R; NJ-07 R)

9pm:

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp New Mexico (NM-Sen R; NM-01 D & R; NM-02 D & R; NM-03 D)

10pm:

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Iowa (IA-03 D)

11pm:

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp California (CA-04 R)

Please post your predictions in the comments!

We’d also be very grateful if you could give us links to good sites which will carry the results. Thanks!

(Poll closing times courtesy The Green Papers.)

We’re delighted to announce that long-time Swing State Project community member Crisitunity is joining us as a contributing editor. As many of you know, Crisitunity’s specialty is longer-form quantitative analysis, examples of which include the home-grown “PVI-Voting Pattern Index” and this excellent diary comparing the racial/ethnic characteristics of members of Congress and their districts. Expect to see more pieces along these lines right here on the front page.

I’ll give our newest contributing editor a chance to introduce himself, but for now, please welcome Crisitunity aboard!

Let’s try something different: In comments, tell us what congressional district you live in. While you’re at it, why don’t you describe the district for us, too. And if you don’t live in a U.S. congressional district, tell us about whatever legislative district(s) you do live in.

UPDATE: This has been a super-fun thread so far. To kick it up a notch, I’ve created a Frappr map for SSP community members. This will give us a visual representation of where everyone lives. You can click below to add your location (nothing more specific than a town name or ZIP code is used). Go for it!

Research 2000 for DailyKos (5/20-21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Gary Trauner (D): 44

Cynthia Lummis (R): 41

(MoE: ±4%)

The poll has a sample of 48R-24D-28I. Exit polls from 2004 showed turnouts at 53R-25D-22I. If this shift from R to I is accurate, that’s a heartening sign, seeing as most independents these days lean Dem. Indeed, Trauner carries that group 58-32. He also fares far better among Dems (85-11) than Lummis does among Republicans (62-15).

These results are very similar to a Casper Star-Tribune poll from January, which had Trauner edging Lummis 41-40. Then as now, Trauner had more solid support from his own party than Lummis. However, the GOP hasn’t decided on a nominee yet, and won’t until late in the summer – August 19th, in fact. Lummis, a former Secretary of State, has to contend with rancher Mark Gordon, who has raised considerably more than she has – though the bulk of his haul actually consists of a $300K donation he made to his own campaign.

Markos didn’t poll a Trauner-Gordon matchup, but he may want to the next time R2K is in the field: a Gordon internal poll from earlier this month showed him up 39-23 over Lummis. That poll, though, showed 30% undecideds, and I’m going to bet that surveying likely voters for a primary in the dog days of summer is a very inexact science.

Depending on how divisive this primary gets, GOP support may or may not coalesce around the eventual nominee. Right now, Lummis at least seems pretty untarnished, with a 49-29 favorability rating. Trauner’s numbers are similar, 52-31, and he still has a little room for growth (17% have no opinion of him). He’ll need to hope that Republican support for his opponent, whoever it may be, stays soft, and he’ll also need to eke out some more votes from undecided independents. If Trauner can do that, lightning might just strike.

P.S. Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama 53-40. Kerry lost this state 69-29.

Tom Cole dead? Not quite, but John Boehner definitely just took some advice from Bob Barker and spayed his NRCC Chair:

• The NRCC will now wade into competitive GOP primaries when appropriate. This is a significant shift, as Cole’s policy has been to stay out of such contests even when the party believes one candidate would clearly be the best general election bet. In Illinois and Louisiana in particular, Republicans suffered because they fielded a poor nominee. The race to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R) in New York, which could draw several GOP contenders, could be the first high-profile test of the new policy.
• There will be an “audit” of the three special election losses conducted by two as-yet-unnamed Republican lawmakers, designed to figure out what went wrong and how to avoid repeating those mistakes in the future. This could be an embarrassing exercise for Cole and his top staff, but they agreed to it, likely because they didn’t have a choice.
• The party will step up its efforts to establish special fundraising committees for seats with contested GOP primaries occurring late in the season, which will raise cash that will automatically go to the eventual nominees. This fairly common practice will prevent those nominees from starting the general election race at a financial disadvantage after a costly primary. This effort will be led by Rep. Pete Sessions (Texas), who lost to Cole in the race to chair the NRCC for this Congress. (Emphasis added.)

Oh, and one of the two “auditors” will be Tom Davis, who just wrote a scathing memo about the GOP’s problems as a party. I’d be surprised if his report on Cole is any less harsh.

Cole is in denial mode, though, flatly contradicting Boehner by announcing that, with regard to primaries, NRCC “policy hasn’t changed. There seems to be some confusion about that.” And just to prove he’s utterly delusional, he invoked Lou Gherig:

I feel like I’m the luckiest guy in the conference to have this job.

And we feel lucky to have you, too, Tommy.

Stuart Rothenberg, May 19, 2008:

According to a post-primary survey by Anzalone-Liszt Research, which polled for Childers (and Democrat Don Cazayoux, who won the special election recently in Louisiana’s 6th district), Davis came out of the GOP primary runoff with a 65 percent favorable and 10 percent unfavorable rating among self-identified Republicans, and leading Childers 73 percent to 13 percent among Republicans.

In the last Democratic survey before Tuesday’s special election, Davis had a 71 percent favorable and 13 percent unfavorable rating among Republicans and held a 71 percent to 17 percent lead among GOP voters.

Stuart Rothenberg, May 21, 2008:

And in Mississippi, Republican Greg Davis’ high personal negatives, combined with Childers’ ideology and personal appeal made the Democrat a safe choice for swing voters.

I suppose we could engage in some hair-splitting and say that Rothenberg was only talking about Republicans in that first excerpt. But really, in that piece, Rothenberg went out of his way to say that the GOP lost because “Republicans nominated a candidate from the wrong part of the district.” He also argued that “[p]olling in the district showed Bush’s ‘favorables’ well above 50 percent….”

If, three days ago, Davis had high favorables with Republicans, if Bush had high overall favorables in the district, and if Davis lost because he was from South Memphis rather than the “right” part of the district, how are we to believe that now, Davis lost because of his “high personal negatives”?

The contradictions don’t end there, though. From the first piece:

Democratic pollster Anzalone minced no words when he told me, Louisiana’s 6th and Mississippi’s 1st “are not referenda on Bush and Republicans in Congress.”

From the second piece:

Special elections often produce odd results when an unpopular president sits in the White House. They offer voters an opportunity to send a message. And swing voters and conservative Democrats surely did.

It’s like Rothenberg is trying to simultaneously argue and debunk every claim made about this election all at once. This bit, though, made me laugh:

Nor does the Mississippi 1st district result mean that “there is no district that is safe for Republican candidates,” as Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen said recently. That’s just silly hyperbole and something the Maryland Democrat undoubtedly will be embarrassed to have said.

Stuart Rothenberg seems to be forgetting that campaign committee chairs engage in a little thing called “pr” every day of the week that ends in “y.” I predict Van Hollen will be no more embarrassed about those remarks than Rothenberg will ever be about writing these two highly contradictory columns.

I shit you not, my friends:

[GOP Rep. Thaddeus McCotter] also called for more out-of-the-box strategies, such as proposing a theme of “Nancy Pelosi, the San Francisco Threat,” sung to the tune of the Rice-a-Roni jingle.

God they are so fucked.