LA-06: Did the NRCC Send Out the Wrong Press Release?

Because it sure feels that way to me:

“This should come as a warning shot to Democrats,” the NRCC said in a post-election press release. “The elitist behavior of the Democratic front-runner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped.”

Talk about lowering the bar.  Suddenly Democrats should be on the defensive for winning Republican-held R+6.5 open seats in the South?

Hang in there, Tom Cole and friends.  I know this must’ve been a rough night for you.

LA-06: Election Results Thread — Cazayoux Wins!

512 of 512 Precincts Reporting.
CandidatePartyVotesPercent
Don Cazayoux(D) 49,70249.20%
Woody Jenkins(R)46,74146.27%
Ashley Casey(I)3,7183.68%

RESULTS: LA SoS | Baton Rouge Advocate | NOLA.com

11:19PM: The last three precincts are in.  The final result is Cazayoux 49.20%, Jenkins 46.27%.  What a ride!

10:55PM (David): Wow. What a rollercoaster.  The lesson here, obviously, is that if you don’t know exactly which precincts have reported, projecting things out in a tight race is a very inexact game. Jeffmd seemed to have a good read on those remaining EBR precincts, but ultimately, what matters most is that Don Cazayoux pulled off an extremely impressive win here. Nice work indeed!

10:50PM: CAZAYOUX WINS!!

10:48PM: CAZAYOUX TAKES THE LEAD!

10:47PM: I guess the Louisiana SoS has gone for a smoke break.  Hang in there.

10:31PM: The final Livingston precinct is now in.  It’s nothing but EBR from now on in.  Hang on…

10:27PM: Damn, Jenkins has pulled ahead in EBR again.

10:24PM (David): The envelope is looking better. Please don’t get too excited, but if all of the outstanding precincts perform the same way those already counted have (on a parish-by-parish basis), then Cazayoux would come away with a very narrow win. Given how drastically EBR has shifted tonight, I wouldn’t bank on anything, though.

10:22PM: EBR is continuing to come in for Cazayoux.  Come on, Han old buddy.  Don’t let me down!

10:15PM: Cazayoux is pulling ahead in EBR now… it’s looking much closer.

10:06PM (David): My back-of-the-envelope spreadsheet suggests that Cazayoux would have to run 17 points ahead of where he’s been all night in the outstanding vote to be able to come back for the narrowest of wins. Not good.

10:01PM: This is not looking great — Cazayoux is getting smacked in East Baton Rouge so far.

9:52PM: Keep in mind that with 16 of 21 precincts reporting in West Baton Rouge, Cazayoux is up big — 1771 to 741.

9:49PM: Woody is starting this with a big lead (55%-41%) based in part on the strong returns from the very Republican Livingston Parish.  We have a ways to go yet.

9:37PM: As expected, Livingston is coming in strongly for Jenkins.  Feliciana looks tight.

9:18PM Eastern: The first results are trickling in — likely absentees.  51% Woody, 46% Cazayoux.


Polls are now closed in Louisiana.  We’ll be tracking the results as them come in above.

LA-06: What to Look For Tonight



























































































Parish Calongne Jenkins Total GOP Cazayoux Jackson Total Dem
Ascension 637 893 1,530 936 180 1,116
East Baton Rouge 6,493 9,981 16,474 10,712 11,713 22,425
East Feliciana 211 575 786 720 781 1,501
Iberville 111 151 262 709 432 1,141
Livingston 1,252 2,706 3,958 2,950 342 3,292
Pointe Coupee 215 245 460 1,821 64 1,885
St. Helena 61 162 223 300 505 805
West Baton Rouge 205 258 463 1,255 591 1,846
West Feliciana 142 208 350 403 460 863

These are the turnout results from the April 5th primary runoff in Louisiana’s 6th District, where 59% of all votes cast were for Democrats. Now, tonight’s margin likely won’t be nearly as favorable for Democrats, but the numbers provide us some clues as to what to expect.

Ascension and Livingston parishes are the GOP strongholds here. Iberville, St. Helena, and Pointe Coupee (where Cazayoux’s home is located) are strong Democratic parishes in local and federal elections and Cazayoux should perform well here tonight. East and West Feliciana are historically Democratic, but have trended GOP in federal elections in recent years. Between the runoff performance and Cazayoux’s small town profile, I feel optimistic about the Democratic chances in Feliciana tonight.

Due to sheer vote power, Baton Rouge will decide this election. This is Woody’s hometown, and Bush won West and East Baton Rouge parishes by a decisive 55%-45% margin over John Kerry in 2004. Still, that’s not an insurmountable margin for a down-home Southern Dem to work with, and the city of Baton Rouge itself has seen a large influx of African-American residents from New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It will all come down to turnout here: Will the black vote come out strongly enough for Cazayoux, even though state Rep. Michael Jackson, defeated in the primary, is running TV ads telling his supporters that he’ll run in November as an independent? The Cazayoux campaign and the DCCC have been working the field hard, but it’s still, of course, up in the air until the returns come in.

We’ll find out after 8pm Central/9pm Eastern tonight.

OH-16: John Boccieri – Boots on the Ground!

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

Weather Does Not Dampen Will of Ohio’s Fighting 16th Congressional District!

I had the opportunity to catch up with Ian Walton, Campaign Manager for John Boccieri for Congress, this afternoon. Mother nature wasn’t very cooperative with rain showers, wind gusts, and unusually cool temperatures, but that doesn’t stop “The Boccieri Corps” here in the fighting 16th District!

Ian reported, here, to “The Out-Post”:

It’s encouraging to know that supporters for the Major are anxious and ready to mobilize whether rain or shine!

Ohio’ 16th Congressional District covers Stark, Wayne, part of Ashland, and part of Medina counties. We have a unique district in the fact that it lies across two old rail lines and the canal system of past generations. The economics range from the displaced middle-class factory workers, to rural family farmers, and urban center-city workers.

Ian went on to add:

The weather didn’t keep us from reaching out and talking with voters about John’s message for change in every corner of the district.

And, State Senator Major John Boccieri’s message bears repeating often as Ohio’s 16th Congressional District becomes a “poster child” for what has gone wrong through the actions of the Bush Administration.

• We still see our brave men and women serving in the Armed Forces, and in harms way, being injured and killed. It’s clear after 5 years of civil war we need to bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon.

• Once those soldiers return we must give them everything they need from health care to education.

• We need strong leadership that will bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon. The war in Iraq is costing Americans $12 billion a month, and the cost to our troops and their families is incalculable. Not expending $12 billion a month on the war would enable us to meet our obligations to our troops when they return, including the long-term health care so many will require as a result of their injuries.

• Bad trade deals have devastated the 16th Congressional District, shipping thousands of good paying jobs overseas. It’s time to vote ‘no’ on trade policies that take away Ohio’s workers’ ability to compete fairly in the global market and trade deals that don’t protect the environment or workers’ rights.

• Hundreds of families in our area don’t have health insurance. The families of the 16th Congressional District deserve a leader in Washington who will put their needs first and accomplish an expansion of affordable health care to more Ohioans.

• The cost of fuel is crippling our economy as our families confront choices between putting gas in their cars and other necessities. It’s time for a change to an energy policy that puts families’ needs before big oil profits. We need to invest in alternative and renewable energy, investments that would help create good jobs and sustainable economic growth and lessen our dependence on foreign oil.

Nothing is going to stop the momentum this campaign is building, and building fast. There is a strong eager core willing to work tirelessly to make sure State Senator Boccieri wins Ohio’s 16th Congressional District in November.

Ian had the bottom line, today:


We had troops out participating in various activities supporting Major Boccieri in all four counties in the 16th Congressional District today.

John Boccieri has “Boots on the Ground!

LA-06: Election Day Predictions Thread

Polls close in Louisiana at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern tonight.  We’ll be liveblogging the returns as they come in, but until then, feel free to use this thread to post your predictions.  (Remember, three independent candidates will be on the ballot: Ashley Casey, Peter Aranyosi, and Randall Hayes.)

Voters in the redder-than-red LA-01 will also head to the polls today to pick a replacement.  Feel free to post your predictions for that one in the comments, too.

FL-13, FL-15: Schneider and Rancatore Jump Back In

With filing deadline for congressional candidates in Florida passing last night, let’s check in with a few key races:

  • FL-10: Crumb-bum Bill Young qualified for another term in this tossup district.  Three Democrats have filed: Ron Paul aficionado Samm Simpson, ’06 Reform Party gubernatorial candidate Max Linn, and Dunedin Mayor (and former Republican) Bob Hackworth.  Linn, who won 2% statewide in 2006, has given or lent his campaign over $150K so far.  It’s an odd field, to be sure.  I still wouldn’t put it past Young to make a surprise retirement announcement now that the filing deadline has passed.
  • FL-13: Surprise, surprise.  Everyone’s favorite purity troll, two-time three-time congressional loser and ex-Democrat Jan Schneider is back — this time as an independent.  With Democrat Christine Jennings locked in a tight battle with frosh Rep. Vern Buchanan, Schneider’s ballot antics have just made this race even tougher.  It’s clear that Schneider has effectively joined the “Stay in Iraq Forever Party” now.
  • FL-14: Republican state Sen. Burt Saunders has filed to run against incumbent Rep. Connie Mack in this R+10.5 district as an independent.  Despite some vote-splitting by Mack and Saunders, this is still going to be a very uphill climb for Democrat Larry Byrnes.
  • FL-15: Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Weldon announced his retirement in this R+4.1 district back in January, and Democrats moved immediately to set up a competitive open seat challenge here.  But after Nancy Higgs, a former Brevard Co. commissioner, abruptly exited the race, things looked startlingly quiet here.  However, just before the deadline passed, Paul Rancatore, a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force reserves, re-entered the race.  Rancatore was recruited to run against Weldon last summer, but dropped out of the race in October, citing his mother’s health as his overriding concern.  Rancatore will face off with physician Stephen Blythe for the Democratic nomination.

    Four Republican candidates have filed to run, but the party establishment appears to have closed ranks around state Sen. Bill Posey, who is currently sitting on more than $200K cash-on-hand.

MS-01: More Money Moves

Earlier today, the NRCC posted a $350K expenditure against Travis Childers.  Here are the late-evening updates:

The NRCC posted an additional $31,000 in Mississippi tonight, with $10K on direct mail, $17K on media production, and $4400 on another poll.  The committee’s total tab in this district is now $982,600.

The DCCC went up with $139,000 of their own expenditures: $71K in media buys, $33K in direct mail, $30K for media production, and $4400 in field organizing for Childers.  I’m quite pleased to see the last tally, as the ground war will be crucial in a race where voter fatigue is likely running very high.  To date, the DCCC has spent $1,282,835 in Mississippi.

It also looks like Freedom’s Crotch has reared its ugly head in Mississippi hitting Childers on taxes (what else?).  However, Cotton Mouth reports that the local Fox affiliate in Memphis has pulled the ad due to its “false claims and inaccuracies”.

Former Mississippi Gov. William Winter also endorsed Childers on Thursday.

Special election: 5/13.

GA, FL filings: GOP leaves 5 seats unopposed

Today was the filing deadline for both Georgia and Florida.  Each had a short filing week with few surprises.  In Georgia, Democrats filed in all 13 seats while Republicans filed in 11 of the state’s 13 districts.  The exceptions were the super safe seats currently held by Hank Johnson and John Lewis.  Johnson holds the seat formerly held by Cynthia McKinney.  Lewis has held his seat for more then 20 years and is a Committee chair.  He drew expected opposition and the unexpected opposition of state legislator “Able” Mable Thomas.  The “issue”:  Barrack Obama.

Three Florida Democrats went through without a Republican opponent in Florida.  That was down from six in 2006 and five in 2004.  The three who will have no major opponent in November are Corrinne Brown in Florida-7, Kendrick Meek in FL-17 and Debbie “Dubya” Wasserman Schulz in FL-20.

The four other districts gerrymandered as safe Democratic produced seemingly weak challengers for Allen Boyd in FL-2, Kathy Castor in FL-11, Robert Wexler in FL-19, and Alcee Hastings in FL-23 as well as stronger challengers for Tim Mahoney and Ron Klein.  In a disappointing result, C.W. Bill Young filed for re-election although he lookes to get more than the token opposition that has sometimes come his way.

MS-01: The NRCC Responds (For Real This Time)

In response to the DCCC’s decision to spend a whopping $700,000 in Mississippi on Wednesday, the NRCC has followed up with a $350,000 media buy against Travis Childers.

The new bill brings the NRCC’s total expenditures in this R+10 district to an eye-popping amount of $951,203.  To put that in perspective, that’s 13% of the NRCC’s cash-on-hand.

The DCCC has invested $1,143,668 on this race so far.

Special election: 5/13.