Month: June 2008

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-18):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 51

Mike Sodrel (R): 40

Eric Schansberg (L): 4

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Hill is the only freshman House Democrat in Indiana who was expected to face a close contest this year, so these are encouraging numbers given Sodrel’s high profile. Interestingly, the Libertarian candidate takes a miniscule 2% of Dem and GOP voters, but 14% of independents.

It looks like Sodrel picked the wrong year to try to resurrect his political fortunes.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Roll Call makes the case that John Sununu may become the Rick Santorum of 2008:

“It will close.”

That was the common analysis during the previous cycle’s Senate race in Pennsylvania, when poll after poll showed then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) trailing his opponent, then-state Treasurer Bob Casey (D). But after millions of dollars of advertising, the race never did close, and Casey won in a romp.

Now, New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu (R) finds himself in a similar predicament.

Through this point last cycle, two-dozen polls showed exactly the same thing; Santorum trailed Casey by an average of 11 points and the incumbent failed to top 43 percent in the ballot test. Indications are that Sununu will suffer the same fate as Santorum.

Sununu has trailed former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in all but one of 11 polls, dating back to March 2007, by an average of 12 points. And he hasn’t topped 42 percent, except in the mid-December American Research Group poll that was clearly an outlier.

Indeed, the closest that Sununu has been to Shaheen in recent months is seven points behind in a May Rasmussen survey.

As you recall, the $25 million that Santorum spent on his re-election bid didn’t buy him a lick of good news in the polls. Sununu has yet to spend a dime on advertising yet, so it’s too soon to see if his attacks on Shaheen and her record will gain any traction. Historically, though, the record of GOP incumbents coming back from big deficits is slim:

Republicans may have to reach back almost a quarter of a century to find precedent for an incumbent coming from so far behind to win. In 1984, North Carolina Sen. Jesse Helms (R) was running for a third term and found himself down by 20 points to Gov. Jim Hunt (D) with 18 months to go.

“Barring an act of God, Jesse Helms can’t win,” a Washington Post reporter wrote. But Helms had a plan.

According to the book “Tarheel Politics: Myths and Realities” by Paul Luebke, the Senator attacked early, going after Hunt on television in the fall and winter in the year preceding the election. Helms effectively redefined the popular governor and helped himself by polarizing the electorate along racial lines by opposing the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

By May 1984, Helms was already back in the lead, but he would go on to win only narrowly, 52 percent to 48 percent. This year, it’s June, and Sununu still trails his opponent.

Helms had something else going for him, as well: Saint Ronnie Reagan’s presence at the top of the ballot. And while Sununu’s camp believes that McCain will be “extremely strong” in the state, Obama’s been outperforming McCain in the latest polls. The presidential race could end up being close, but counting on McCain as a downballot savior strikes me as an extremely dicey proposition for Bununu.

Rasmussen (likely voters, 6/17, 5/19 in parentheses):

Mark Udall (D): 49 (47)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

It’s a small bump, but Udall’s lead has moved outside the margin of error. His favorability numbers also are way ahead of Schaffer’s (56% very or somewhat favorable for Udall vs. 47% very or somewhat favorable for Schaffer, 35% very or somewhat unfavorable for Udall vs. 45% very or somewhat unfavorable for Schaffer).

I guess that’s what happens when you don’t know which mountains are located in your own state. Or what happens when you’re pals with Jack Abramoff and David Safavian…

Bonus finding (James): Obama leads by 43-41 in the state, down from 48-42 in May.

John Barrow stands out like a bit of a sore thumb: by most measures, he’s one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, but unlike the other arch-Blue Dogs, he’s doing it in a district that’s D+2 and where the majority of the Democratic electorate is African-American. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that he’s facing a primary challenge from the left this year, from state senator Regina Thomas.

This race hasn’t been getting much attention, in terms of netroots traction and certainly not in terms of money. However, the biggest gun of all was suddenly wheeled out today: Barack Obama, who cut a radio spot in favor of John Barrow. (You can listen to the spot over at Talking Points Memo.)

Obama credits Barrow for:

…standing up to the lobbyists, and the Republicans who vote right down the line with George Bush…

Hmmm… I wonder if Obama has been paying attention to the FISA fight that’s going on in the Capitol as we speak, and what side Barrow’s been on with that?

The question here is: is Barrow actually feeling some heat in the primary, or is he just calling in a favor as a preemptive strike (Barrow heads Obama’s voter registration efforts in Georgia, and Barrow endorsed Obama back in February)?

The decision has left some of Obama’s backers in Savannah disappointed. But as Matt Stoller diagnosed, it’s pretty much win-win for Obama. Cutting the ad for Barrow helps him show all the Blue Dogs that he has their back, and it may help reduce the talking out of turn by guys like Dan Boren and Tim Mahoney. If Barrow wins, he’ll still be less of a thorn in Obama’s side with an increased progressive majority where Blue Dogs hold less sway in the House. And if Thomas somehow pulls it out, well, that’s one more progressive ally for Obama’s agenda.

We usually don’t delve too deeply into discussions on this year’s presidential race, but Barack Obama is waging an extraordinary campaign that could have some serious downballot effects, and that’s definitely worth a look when we discuss House and Senate campaigns across the country.

Putting his money where his mouth is, Obama has launched a new 60 second biographical ad in 18 states, including a number of “non-traditional” battlegrounds that are already making the pundit class chatter:

Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

This represents a serious commitment towards expanding the map. States like Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota are supposed to be off-limits for any reasonable Democrat, but Obama — aided by an unprecedented fundraising advantage — is playing by a different set of rules. We could see a very different kind of “trickle-down effect” this fall.

Alaska, for instance, hasn’t been seriously contested since the 1960s, yet Democrats are contesting the state at every level this year with extremely strong candidates (Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz). A number of recent polls — public and private — are showing Obama barely behind McCain in the state. This will make the lives of Begich and Berkowitz easier, as they won’t have to convince as many voters to split their tickets — a challenge, as Cillizza notes, that was too great of a burden for Tony Knowles to overcome in his strong campaign against Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2004.

In Georgia, few believe that GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in peril this year. However, we have seen indications that the Obama campaign plans to mount a massive registration drive to target 500,000 unregistered African-Americans in Georgia. If Democrats can field a strong nominee (say, Jim Martin?), could things get interesting here if Obama is not getting a John Kerry-like beating in the state?

There’s a lot to ponder here, but there’s a lot of potential for a rising Obama tide to lift many boats, especially with the great (but not surprising) news that Obama will not cede the GOP an inch by accepting public financing and abandoning his commanding financial edge. Unlike teasers like John Kerry’s brief ad campaigns in states like Louisiana and Virginia in 2004, Obama can afford to put his money where his mouth is — and that’s exciting.

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Food For Thought

MS-Sen-B: Too Cute By Half?

OK, get all the pirate-themed ARG jokes out of your system. Ready now?

American Research Group (likely voters, 6/13-17):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54

John Sununu (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Jeanne Shaheen still faces a big campaign funds shortfall compared with the loaded Sununu, but the polls have consistently had this one in Casey/Santorum wipeout territory, and this is no exception. She owes her edge to indies: Shaheen is up 53-38 among independent and undeclared voters.

Of course, that’s peanuts compared with the beat-down that popular incumbent governor John Lynch is administering to state senator Joseph Kenney, as he seeks another term.

John Lynch (D-inc): 65

Joseph Kenney (R): 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Bear in mind, though, that the top line of the poll also has Obama beating McCain 51-39, so this may be an overly Democratic sample. (Or else the McCain campaign is completely imploding, and there’s enough polling evidence over the last week to actually suggest that.)

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-17):

Darcy Burner (D): 45

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±3.8%)

This race is shaping up to be another close one. Darcy Burner has one of the best Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness ratings in the country, at 132% and over $900K in the bank at the end of March.

Only 23% of voters say that they could change their mind between now and election day, but Reichert leads among these voters by 50-39. There’s a lot of campaign time still on the clock, but a strong Obama performance in this D+2.3 district might help dislodge a few of these soft Reichert voters in November.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

UPDATE (by Crisitunity): As a bonus, Survey USA also polled WA-02, where Rick Larsen is facing a bit stiffer challenge than his last few go-rounds. He’s up against Rick Bart, who until recently was Snohomish County Sheriff. Bart has high name rec and a Reichert-like profile, but he’ll need some money if he’s going to make a race of this (no FEC filing yet).

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-17):

Rick Larsen (D-inc): 56

Rick Bart (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Voter Consumer Research for Mitch McConnell (6/15-17, likely voters, 5/21-22 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 39 (39)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50 (50)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This one comes a day after SurveyUSA released a poll showing Lunsford trailing McConnell by four points. McConnell’s camp pulled the exact same move in May after Rasmussen released a survey showing Lunsford beating McConnell by five.

However, one thing is clear: Mitch McConnell won’t be getting a free ride this year. Even McConnell’s own internals indicate that this race is closer than any election he’s faced since 1990. Lunsford, while hardly a darling of progressive Democrats, will be able to bring his own ample financial resources to the race so that McConnell will be pinned down at home. McConnell will have to navigate his re-election bid and his role as a steadfast champion of Bush’s unpopular policies in the Senate carefully.

With the polls starting to smile on Lunsford, SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican“. McConnell is a famously tenacious campaigner and is still heavily favored to win, but an upset is not outside the realm of possibility.

From the Hill:

Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) has been on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) Red to Blue list for months, but it appears few people knew that.

The DCCC neglected to announce the addition of Bright to the list, but his name was among the 25 candidates already part of the program when the committee announced its new slate of Red to Blue candidates Wednesday.

Turns out that Bright’s been part of the Red to Blue program since February. Who knew?

For reference, I’ve included the full Red to Blue list below the fold.

Red to Blue:

AK-AL: Ethan Berkowitz

AL-02: Bobby Bright

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick

AZ-03: Bob Lord

CA-04: Charlie Brown

CO-04: Betsy Markey

CT-04: Jim Himes

FL-13: Christine Jennings

FL-21: Raul Martinez

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas

FL-25: Joe Garcia

ID-01: Walt Minnick

IL-10: Dan Seals

IL-11: Debbie Halvorson

LA-04: Paul Carmouche

MD-01: Frank Kratovil

MI-07: Mark Schauer

MI-09: Gary Peters

MN-03: Ashwin Madia

MO-06: Kay Barnes

NC-08: Larry Kissell

NJ-03: John Adler

NJ-07: Linda Stender

NM-01: Martin Heinrich

NM-02: Harry Teague

NV-03: Dina Titus

NY-13: Mike McMahon

NY-25: Dan Maffei

NY-29: Eric Massa

OH-01: Steve Driehaus

OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy

OH-16: John Boccieri

VA-02: Glenn Nye

VA-11: Gerry Connolly

WA-08: Darcy Burner

WV-02: Anne Barth

WY-AL: Gary Trauner

Emerging Races:

AL-03: Josh Segall

CA-50: Nick Leibham

FL-09: John Dicks

FL-18: Annette Taddeo

IL-06: Jill Morgenthaler

IL-18: Colleen Callahan

IN-03: Mike Montagano

KY-02: David Boswell

MN-02: Steve Sarvi

MN-06: El Tinklenberg

NC-10: Dan Johnson

NJ-05: Dennis Shulman

NV-02: Jill Derby

OH-02: Vic Wulsin

PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper

PA-06: Bob Roggio

PA-15: Sam Bennett

TX-07: Michael Skelly

VA-05: Tom Perriello

VA-10: Judy Feder