Month: November 2008

The progressive blog Down With Tyanny! is quoting a Congress Daily rundown of the 2010 senate races that suggests that Chuck Grassley’s free rides may be about to end.

The success of Iowa Democrats in the last two election cycles has fueled talk that the party can finally take a serious run at Sen. Charles Grassley, who will be running for a sixth term in 2010. Democrats took over both houses of the state Legislature and picked up two House seats in 2006, and President-elect Obama won the state with 54 percent of the vote this year after it narrowly went for President Bush in 2004. Democrats have held the governor’s mansion since 1999, and Gov. Chet Culver will be at the top of the ticket in 2010.

A source at the Iowa Democratic Party said she would be “very surprised if there’s not a high-profile challenger” to Grassley but acknowledged challenging the popular Grassley would be “daunting” to many candidates because of his high approval ratings. “Some folks do feel he’s unbeatable,” she said. Grassley has never faced a serious challenge for his seat, and in 2004 was re-elected with 70 percent, his highest total. Potential challengers include former two-term Gov. Tom Vilsack, Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson and Rep. Bruce Braley. The Democratic source said she expects the field to take shape next year, and said some might be waiting on Vilsack, who has been mentioned as a possible Agriculture secretary for Obama. [That rumor ended yesterday.]

I have to admit that I never really held anything against Grassley, who has always reminded me of the more sensible old-school Republicans that I grew up with. I never figured he was vulnerable either. But when is the last time he had a top-tier challenger? Wil he run again? Is he so tough? Has he been mostly getting a free ride based on his good name? Has Iowa changed that much? It will be interesting to find out.

Yes, I know that the runoff election for Saxby Chambliss’s seat hasn’t even been decided yet, but that doesn’t mean we can’t also look ahead to 2010, as our friends at Public Policy Polling are doing today.

According to PPP’s latest poll, frosh GOP Senator Johnny Isakson seems pretty unknown, sporting only a 30-25 approval rating (with a whopping 44% saying “not sure”). PPP was also kind enough to give us a look at some numbers of Isakson against two strong Democrats on Georgia’s bench (11/22-23, likely voters):

Thurbert Baker (D): 39

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 45

Jim Marshall (D): 38

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±3.3%)

I have my finger in this pie, as these match-ups were my suggestions. Not that I think either Marshall, who seems to be settling into his R+8 district, or Baker, Georgia’s African-American Attorney General, are likely to run, but it’s worth seeing how well Johnny would do against a pair of Democrats that at least some people have heard of in the state. And, sure enough, neither of these leads are particularly formidable, though Isakson still has two years to get his ass in gear (if he really needs to).

While Isakson isn’t one of the more obvious targets for Dems in 2010, perhaps there’s some potential here for a ambitious candidate to make a name for themselves in a race like this. After all, few thought that Jim Martin had much of a shot in his race this year, and he polled very poorly against Chambliss at the start of his campaign.

Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who is perhaps the strongest candidate Democrats currently have on their statewide bench (and the only one aside from Bill Nelson currently elected statewide), says the she’ll be making a decision shortly on her political future. From the St. Petersburg Times:

On the subject of politics, Sink promised a decision soon on her political future which could include running for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Mel Martinez in 2010, running for governor, or staying put, and perhaps preparing for a run for governor in 2014 when the office will be open.

“I’m going to make up my mind very soon,” Sink said. “It’s all about what’s best for me, and what’s best for the state.”

As for Martinez himself, The Hill notes that he hasn’t announced his intentions for 2010 (he will do so in January). While it may be unlikely, it wouldn’t totally shock me if Martinez decided not to run for another term.

To no one’s surprise, Harry Reid has named Bob Menendez to take over stewardship of the DSCC in the wake of Chuck Schumer’s departure. Menendez certainly has a tough act to follow after Schumer’s 13 big wins over the past two cycles, but there are a lot of good opportunities on the table in 2010 that could make it a good year for Bob (and us). Let’s wish him luck.

The DSCC’s full press release is available below (and under the flip):

REID NAMES MENENDEZ DSCC CHAIRMAN FOR 2010 CYCLE

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today named U.S. Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2010 election cycle.  Menendez will take over the DSCC from Senator Charles Schumer, who led the committee during the last two election cycles.

Senator Reid said: “As an aggressive, focused and committed Democrat and a widely respected Senator, Bob Menendez will be a superb leader of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.  Our Caucus will be well-served by Bob Menendez, whose mastery of policy is matched only by his mastery of politics.  He was a leader in the House, rising to become the third-ranking Democrat there; has already established himself as a leader in the Senate; and will continue to lead us in protecting our incumbents and electing new Democrats in the future. I thank Sen. Schumer for his four years of leadership.  Because of his efforts, Democrats have expanded our majority to its largest in 30 years.  I am confident that Sen. Menendez will build upon this success.”

Senator Menendez said: “I am humbled by this opportunity, and I fully recognize the responsibility that comes with it. In 2006 and again this year, under the masterful stewardship of Senator Schumer, we have made major gains toward bringing change to our country. We face historic challenges and must continue to move in that new direction. I intend to make sure that we build upon the majority in Senate that allows us to affect the change we need. I want to thank Majority Leader Reid for his terrific leadership and for entrusting me with this position.”

Senator Schumer said: “I want to thank Senator Reid and all of my Democratic colleagues for making the past four years such a success.  Bob Menendez is a great choice.  We worked closely together the past two years, and I am confident he will do a fabulous job.”

Menendez served as vice chairman of the DSCC for the past two years.  He was appointed to the Senate in January 2006 to fill the remainder of Governor Jon Corzine’s term and was elected to a full term in November of that year.  He was elected to the House of Representatives in 1992 and elected by his colleagues as chairman of the House Democratic Caucus in 2002, making him the highest ranking Hispanic in Congressional history.  With today’s appointment he becomes the first Hispanic in history to lead a Senate or House campaign committee.

Cross posted at draftalex.com.

It’s pretty obvious that people are hoping that Alex Sink tosses her hat in the ring or higher office. The question we hope she’s facing right now is which one: Senate or Guvna?

There are perhaps a few too many calls for Alex Sink to be our Senate nominee.  This morning, Blast Off! even called for her to run for Senate and forget about the governor’s mansion.

At Draft Alex Sink for Governor the bias is pretty obvious. But, think for a second about why running for Senate wouldn’t be as good as a move.

First, just in terms of personality and experience, Alex is perfectly suited to be governor. She’s been an executive- and that’s what a governor theoretically does (just don’t look to Charlie for an example). Dan Gelber, Bob Wexler, Allen Boyd- these men are legislators- damn good ones, if I may. Their skills and interests fit the profile of a Senator more than Alex’s do.

There is a crowded bench already. Alex would have to compete with the likes of Dan Gelber and Chris Korge, maybe Allen Boyd, or even Bob Wexler. Those are some serious players, who could all represent the state well and some will run if she gets in or not. Alex could win the primary and the general, but why go for Senate to when the bench is already so deep, so good.

Winning the senate seat back is going to be tougher than we imagine. Sure, it looks a lot easier than beating Charlie does, but we’re two years out from the election- things change. Charlie should start to look more like a do-nothing, and Mel Martinez might decide to gracefully bow out, leaving the Republicans to nominate someone who could give us more of a challenge. In short, get excited about another Democratic senator, but don’t bet money on it just yet.

While there’s a crowded bench for Senate, there is literally no bench for governor- outside Alex Sink. If Democrats want to stop losing the state, then we can’t cede races like the 2010 gubernatorial. We need to not only nominate a candidate, but we need to nominate a good one. Right now, no other Democrat is really dipping the proverbial toe in the water- no one, not even Rod Smith.

And, there’s my peace.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

I confess it – this was more challenging for me to put together than my earlier piece on Carol Shea-Porter, because in comparing the Charlie Bass (R-inc) – Paul Hodes (D) race of 2006 to the Paul Hodes (D-inc) – Jennifer Horn (R) race of 2008, the numbers tell you over and over again that the two are not really comparable.  Very much apples and oranges.

There are a number of reasons for this.  For starters, Charlie Bass held on to a district for six terms that showed less and less opportunity for the GOP every year, especially given the radicalism of the Bush brand in the final six of them. So the absence of a Bass incumbency factor gave us he opportunity to see the district more as it may actually be. Secondly, freshman class president Paul Hodes has proven to be, unlike the BassMaster, something of a leader in Congress, and has paid excellent attention to the needs of his district.  Third, he’s a capable fundraiser.  And finally, in Jennifer S. Horn-Palin, the GOP chose a standard-bearer who could not be more out-of-touch with CD2.  But let’s listen to what the numbers are saying.

(More below the fold…)

First, the list of towns that flipped from Charlie Bass in ’06 to Paul Hodes in ’08 is – happily – so long it’s not useful even listing, imho.  But just for the record, the total number is forty-five.  And the most important ones, in voter-rich terms, are accounted for in the tables below.

Jennifer Horn, on the other hand, flipped one whole town:  Millsfield. Total votes cast? 15.

Due to the larger number of towns in CD2 v. CD1, and the convincing victory Hodes had (and leaving aside cities with wards for a moment), I thought it would be both more readable and more useful to focus first on those towns with greater than 2000 votes cast for the general election cycle. As in my earlier post on CSP, the following list represents those populous towns where Paul Hodes raised his vote percentage from ’06 to ’08 by three percentage points or more.  The table also lists total votes cast, and Hodes’ 2008 vote percentage, the color of which declares who won that town (blue for Hodes, red for Horn):

Town	’08 Hodes %	’06-’08 +/-% Diff.	Total Votes Cast
Littleton*	57.7%	+16.5%	2699
Newport	59.4%	+9.8%	2845
Plymouth	67.8%	+8.4%	3457
Northfield*	53.9%	+8.0%	2204
Hillsborough	56.9%	+7.5%	2743
Epsom*	51.3%	+7.1%	2397
Pembroke	56.7%	+7.0%	3580
Loudon*	51.8%	+6.2%	2742
Weare*	48.7%	+5.4%	4447
New Boston	45.04%	+5.2%	2982
Jaffrey	56.8%	+5.1%	2766
Charlestown	63.2%	+4.9%	2475
New London*	54.2%	+4.9%	2788
Bow*	53.4%	+4.9%	4645
Allenstown	57.3%	+4.8%	2064
Henniker	59.8%	+4.7%	2405
Enfield	64.6%	+4.6%	2333
Pelham	46.0%	+4.3%	6310
Walpole	61.0%	+4.3%	2143
Hopkinton	60.6%	+4.1%	3744
Litchfield	45.0%	+3.7%	4252
Hudson*	49.1%	+3.3%	11,332

* Flipped to Hodes in 2008.

Now, the next step would be to do the same for those towns of over 2000 votes cast where Paul’s vote percentage decreased by three points or more.  The (happy) problem with that?  There’s only one town that fits the bill, Brookline. With 2,706 votes cast, Hodes won 41.8% of the vote, a decrease of 4.5% from 2006.  And I’ll be generous: neighboring Boston-commute southern tier town Hollis gets honorary mention with a Hodes decrease of 2.9% from the last cycle.

Finally, let’s have a look at how Paul fared from 2006 to 2008 in the major cities of the second district:

City	’08 Hodes %	’06-’08 +/-% Diff.	Total Votes Cast
Berlin	73.0%	+13.0%	4179
Claremont	64.2%	+6.7%	5470
Concord	65.6%	+5.2%	21,128
Franklin	58.2%	+8.9%	3587
Keene	70.2%	+3.4%	12,263
Lebanon	68.1%	+3.4%	6455
Nashua	55.3%	+0.2%	37,995

So. What observations, if any, come from these numbers, aside from the obvious points above about the lopsided nature of this race compared to 2006?

* Check out Littleton, Plymouth, and Berlin on those charts.  Huge increases for all three. North Country Yankee natives are Democrats now.

* The Upper Valley continues to be a dominant – and growing – sector for Democrats.  Not on the chart, and populous enough to have its own wards, Hanover gave Hodes 78.7% of its vote with 6,912 votes cast.

* From the long litany and diverse nature of flipped towns such as Grafton, New London, Milford, Colebrook, and Boscawen, you can feel the grip of the GOP’s too-long grip on CD2 slipping away, perhaps for a good long time. The six term backbencher BassMaster really did hold on to half of New Hampshire longer than was ultimately viable.

* Here’s the biggest surprise of all for me from these numbers.  Take a look at the percent increases for the larger towns, and for all the cities.  What stands out? Nashua.  It didn’t budge.

But guess what else?  With all due respect to the good Granite Staters of Nashua, it didn’t much matter, either.  Despite being by far the most populous city in the district, it simply isn’t enough to focus on Nashua and hope it spreads outwards.  In this sense, NHGOP Chair Fergus Cullen, imho, made a critical tactical mistake in throwing his heft behind Horn (if the rumors and spin are to be believed).  A far-right, socially conservative talk radio show host from the southern tier was not going to cut it with the rest of the district’s demographics. Far better it would have been to have had Bob Clegg as the nominee, if of course Clegg showed himself to be a better candidate (he didn’t), or perhaps the more moderate, Concord area primary spoiler Jim Steiner, if he could have shown a better fundraising presence.

The long and the short of it, though, is that if the GOP ever wants a chance at CD2 again, they’re going to have to stop going to the Massachusetts tax refugee well like flies to honey. They will need to field someone much more moderate.  And someone who understands rural and agricultural issues, alternative energy concerns, the importance of the North Country, and the newly dominant progressive voter in the Upper Valley.

Too bad Paul owns all those areas.  It’s a good day to be a Democrat.

The AP:

Sen. Charles Schumer said Monday he is giving up his job running the Senate Democrats’ national campaign efforts after two successful elections.

“We’ve had a great run,” said Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee since the 2006 campaign, when he helped engineer a 6-seat gain that gave his party a slim 1-vote majority margin.

Chuck had one hell of a run, and it’s a shame to see him go. It looks like New Jersey’s Bob Menendez, a current DSCC vice-chair, will likely take over the reins. Let’s hope he can make some inspired recruiting moves like Chuck was able to do on more than one occasion.

Public Policy Polling (11/22-23, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 46

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±3.3%)

The usual caveats of special election/runoff polling still applies here, of course — it’s tough to nail down a good sample in a low-turnout election, but it’s worth noting that this result is nearly identical to a recent R2K poll showing Saxby up by 51-45.

Tom Jensen has more:

Chambliss leads 69-29 with white voters. Even with a higher than expected black turnout for the runoff that share of the white vote would not be good enough for Martin to win- he needs to move closer to a third of it.

Martin leads with voters under 45, but Chambliss has a staggering 69-31 lead with senior citizens, and with the balance of the electorate between older and younger voters tipping in an old direction for the runoff, that makes Martin’s climb that much harder.

If there’s some solace here, at least we know that the newer generation of Georgians is more progressive than the oldsters.

Not going quietly, the DSCC has a new poll of their own. The Mellman Group (11/21-23, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 46

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±4%)

At the very least, every post-election poll agrees that Martin is sitting in the mid-forties, which is still sort of remarkable given just how bad Georgia has looked for Democrats in the past couple of cycles. Anything can happen in a low-turnout election, but this race does seem to be leaning towards Chambliss.

Has Sheldon Adelson’s Crotch seen its last sunrise? The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports:

Freedom’s Watch, the conservative group backed by Las Vegas Sands Corp. Chairman Sheldon Adelson, is pretty much kaput, sources with knowledge of the organization said.

The group’s dozens of staffers have been paid through the end of the year. After that, Freedom’s Watch is likely to shut its doors permanently, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Technically an issue-advocacy group rather than a political campaign arm, Washington-based Freedom’s Watch spent $30 million on television and radio ads in the general election, plus an undisclosed amount on mail and phone-call campaigns.

It was active in four U.S. Senate races and about three dozen congressional races, said spokesman Ed Patru, though he declined to say how the group’s favored candidates did on Nov. 4.

A spokesman for the Crotch confirms that the org will be “downsizing”, but adds that the group’s board has yet to make any decisions about its future. With billionaire casino magnate Adelson hitting some hard financial times lately (dropping from #3 all the way down to 15 on the Forbes list of America’s wealthiest people — poor guy), perhaps he’ll decide not to waste his money propping up congressional Republicans in future cycles.

(H/T: Politico)

From Roll Call:

Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D) announced Monday that she would appoint Ted Kaufman, a former top aide to Vice President-elect Joseph Biden, to fill Biden’s seat in the Senate.

In the diaries, Zac speculates that Kaufman will be merely a placeholder for Beau in 2010. Maybe.

A short bio of this dude is available here.

UPDATE by Crisitunity: Ben Smith is reporting that both Minner and Kaufman confirmed at the Kaufman announcement that he would not seek reelection. (Interestingly, Smith also phrases it as “serve out the remainder of Biden’s term,” which runs through 2014, although because it’s an appointment there’s also a special election in 2010. So I don’t know what exactly he means.) Also, it’s kind of strange that Minner is making this announcement, since incoming governor Markell was signaling that he’d move his inauguration up to midnight on Jan. 20 to be able to name the replacement so Biden could remain in the Senate until the moment of being sworn in as VP. It could be some sort of Biden/Minner end-run around Markell, with Biden retiring earlier… or maybe it was all resolved amicably behind the scenes. Time will tell.

LATER UPDATE (James): The New York Times has a bit more:

In his statement, Mr. Biden did not hide the fact that he would like to see his son take the seat, but the younger Biden said he would not accept an appointment and wanted to fulfill a military obligation with the Delaware Army National Guard in Iraq.

“If he chooses to run for the Senate in the future, he will have to run and win on his own,” the elder Biden said in his statement, noting that the appointment of Mr. Kaufman will mean a “level playing field” for those who choose to compete for the seat in two years. “The voters will make that decision.”