Month: November 2008

Quinnipiac (11/13-17, registered voters):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 42

Christopher Christie (R): 36

(MoE: ±2.2%)

Oh no!!! Look how close the New Jersey governor’s race is! I sure hope the Republican Governors’ Association doesn’t pour millions and millions of dollars into this race in order to push their super-strong candidate over the finish line! [/wink]

In all seriousness, Chris Christie, the U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, would be a good recruit for the Republicans (he isn’t an announced candidate, but is widely mentioned as the leading GOP contender); Christie has made a name for himself in local media by cutting a swath through corrupt Jersey politicians from both sides of the aisle. Coupled with mediocre favorables for Corzine (43 approve/46 disapprove in the same sample, with 51% saying he does not deserve to be re-elected), this might give Democrats some pause… except in the context of how verbose New Jerseyites are in expressing their contempt for their elected officials, and the rate at which New Jersey Democratic officeholders tend to overperform their early polls, those numbers put Corzine on track toward a convincing victory next year.

It’s truly over:

Convicted Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) conceded his race to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) Wednesday afternoon, less than 24 hours after the Associated Press declared the Democrat the winner.

“Given the number of ballots that remain to be counted, it is apparent the election has been decided and Mayor Begich has been elected,” Stevens said in a statement.

Begich led Stevens by 3,724 votes in the most recent count, completed Tuesday evening. Alaska election law would have allowed Stevens to request a recount at his own expense, but his campaign confirmed that he will not do so.

In other news, SSP has obtained footage from Ted Stevens’s 85th birthday celebration last night:

Rasmussen (11/18, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 46

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

So far, both publicly-released runoff period polls (R2K being the other) have showed little movement since November 4th. Chambliss still retains a slight lead, but as Nate Silver says, likely voter models are tough to set for special-type elections, and it’s difficult to make assumptions about turnout. Incredibly, 88% of Georgian voters say they are “certain” to vote in this runoff, which is a bit hard to believe considering that voter turnout was over 20 points lower on November 4th. In this race, so much will come down to getting out the vote, making the outcome difficult to predict.

I’m told that another pollster is about to go into the field here tomorrow, so we should have some more poll results to pick apart in a few days.

And so, the Deathwatch concludes:

Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole has withdrawn from the race to remain chairman of the Republicans’ campaign arm in the House, according to numerous GOP aides, allowing Texas Rep. Pete Sessions to fill the post.

We’ll miss having you to kick around, Tommy!

We already know Chris Van Hollen is staying on for another term at the DCCC. But who will head up the counterpart committee, the DSCC?

Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.) says he will remain Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman at least until the outstanding 2008 Senate races are resolved, but still is keeping coy about whether he ultimately intends to pass the gavel to Sen. Bob Menendez (N.J.) in January.

Schumer, chased down after a closed-door session with Senate Democrats to determine next year’s leadership lineup, at first declined to comment about his future. But when pressed, the two-time DSCC chairman said he would stay on at the campaign committee post for at least a few more weeks. Three Senate races remain in doubt, including Minnesota, Alaska and Georgia.

“I’m staying in to handle the three more races, and then we’ll decide what to do,” Schumer said.

A reporter had to chase down Schumer? That might be a first – this is a guy who would walk across 100 miles of broken glass barefoot to do a show on a 10-watt radio station out of Elmira. Anyhow, that’s why I like Chuck E. Cheese Schumer, and why I would hope he’d stick around for one more term at the DS.

However, if Menendez is the heir apparent, then it’s either now or wait until 2014 – I don’t think Menendez could or should run the committee while seeking re-election, especially since New Jersey is seldom easy. Still, Menendez is only 54, which is very young for the Senate (he’s among the most junior twenty members). If his destiny is to lead the DSCC, he’ll have ample opportunity to do so before long.

Some early reads from Siena College (PDF) (11/10-13, registered voters, Oct. in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 49 (51)

Rudy Giuliani: 43 (40)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Siena has actually been testing this matchup since July, and the numbers have stayed fairly constant, though this is the smallest margin yet seen. I personally think Paterson would beat Rudy, and probably handily at that, but I’d actually be a bit surprised if Rudy ran in the first place. I think he’d have the exact same sort of “doesn’t play well with others” problem that Spitzer had with the legislature, only worse. (Though maybe he’s not smart enough to realize that.)

But he’s put in such crappy efforts in his last two campaigns (for president and for senate in 2000) that I don’t think he has the fire in the belly for this one. And if he does for some reason want to run for president again in 2012, then this seat just isn’t an option for him, win or lose.

Siena also tested AG Andrew Cuomo against Rudy (July in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 44 (47)

Rudy Giuliani: 46 (42)

Undecided: 10 (11)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The odds of this scenario coming to pass are very slim. I very much doubt Cuomo would challenge a sitting governor in a primary, and it’s even less likely that he’d win. And even if both of those events somehow came to pass, he’d have less than two months to run a general election campaign, thanks to NY’s notoriously late primary. Anyhow, his numbers aren’t very good against Paterson (July in parens):

Paterson: 53 (51)

Cuomo: 25 (21)

Undecided: 22 (28)

As it happens, Cuomo’s favorability rating has soared lately, to an impressive 61-19 (it was 48-29 when he first took office). It looks like he’s inheriting the good part of Spitzer’s mantle in his crusade against the chiselers and wastrels at AIG. Paterson, however, is also doing extremely well: He’s at 64-19. But with looming budget cuts, these gaudy numbers could be vulnerable.

I still think a primary challenge by Cuomo – or, in fact, anyone else, like Hillary Clinton – is not in the cards for a variety of reasons. But Paterson might be able to avoid even the hint of a threat if Clinton takes the Secretary of State job and he in turn appoints Cuomo to her seat. We’ll see soon enough!

(Hat-tip: Political Wire.)

In the diaries, Tyler Oakley brought the word that John McCain was restarting his leadership PAC, apparently a sign that he’ll run for another term in 2010. According to Roll Call, McCain is telling his allies that he will indeed run again:

After much speculation that his failed presidential bid would be his last campaign, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has decided to run for re-election to his Senate seat in 2010.

McCain, 72, announced the decision during a meeting Tuesday evening with top ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), advisers Rick Davis, Charlie Black, Carla Eudy and other aides. The meeting, according to a knowledgeable source, took place off the Hill in a private office. […]

Though not at Tuesday’s meeting, one source close to McCain said that running for re-election “is his intention.”

“He’s ready to get back,” this source said. “He likes the game. He likes the deals.”

He still has time to change his mind, of course.

In case you didn’t hear, the Associated Press and the Anchorage Daily News have called the Alaska Senate race for Democrat Mark Begich. Begich is currently sitting on a lead of 3,724 votes, with only about 2,500 special absentees outstanding.

Begich is now the first Democrat since Maurice “Mike” Gravel to represent Alaska in the United States Senate.

Update: Oh, I forgot to mention: Happy birthday, Ted! Yes, Mr. Stevens turned 85 today. And what a birthday it was!

AP confirms McCain is starting up his PAC again in hopes of winning another term.

WASHINGTON – Sen. John McCain, whose presidential bid was snuffed out two weeks ago by President-elect Barack Obama, is setting up a political action committee as a first step in running for a fifth term in the Senate.

A McCain spokesperson says the 72-year-old senator decided with his senior advisers Tuesday night to set up the fundraising PAC. The spokesperson spoke anonymously because the decision had not yet been made public.

http://apnews.myway.com/articl…

I was among the minority who didn’t believe he would retire in 2010. McCain is not going to go out with his debacle of a Presidential campaign as being the first thing in people’s minds when they think of him. He cares too much about his faux “maverick” repuatation and needs to rebuild that (as well as his repuation among the press) before he sails off into the sunset.  

Interesting. Up until now, Republican media efforts in Georgia had yet to pound Jim Martin for his support of Barack Obama — even as Martin casts himself as a strong Obama supporter in his own ads. That changed today, as Saxby is now shaking things up by “going there”:

We saw in the special election in Mississippi’s 1st that attacking Obama led to a surge in African-American enthusiasm for Democrat Travis Childers. The difference here is that Chambliss’ ad is far less scurrilous (albeit still false) than the toxic waste that Greg Davis produced, and that Martin is running a campaign that seems entirely aimed at mobilizing Obama supporters to come out for a second time, rather than reaching out for crossover votes. We’ll just have to see which side is more ginned up.

(H/T: TPM EC)