OH-Sen: Voinovich to call it quits

So says Politico

Ohio Republican George Voinovich is expected to announce Monday that he won’t seek re-election to the Senate in 2010.

Cue the music

This is retirement number four for Big Bad John and Co. just five days into the 11th Congress. In addition to that everyone knows that Kay Bailey Hutchison will make a run for governor and may resign to focus on that. Democrats have legitimate chances to pick up all of them.

Republicans likely to take a shot at the seat include Rob Portman and John Kasich. Democrats have a large field of potential candidates including Rep. Tim Ryan and Rep. Betty Sutton but the CW in Ohio says that Lt. Governor Lee Fisher will run and clear the field with Gov. Ted Strickland’s backing.  

The Republicans so far are dropping like flies. Big Bad John Deathwatch Part 1?

Also at this point in the 2008 cycle no Republican had announced their retirement. Wayne Allard announced his retirement on January 15th, 2007. The next retirement wasn’t until August 31. In 2006 only Bill Frist retired for the Republicans.  If I remember correctly Democrats won quite a few seats in those elections, imagine what 2010 will look like.  

NY-Sen-B: Kennedy Pasting King in Rasmu Poll

Rasmussen (1/6, likely voters, no trendlines):

Caroline Kennedy (D): 51

Peter King (R): 33

Other: 9

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

A rather different picture from PPP’s poll earlier in the week, though it’s a bit hard to compare directly since Rasmussen for whatever reason did not also ask about Cuomo. (They also failed to test DavidNYC vs. King.) I am a little mystified about Rasmu’s choice to use a likely voter screen some two years before any election – how can they possibly judge that?

Anyhow, we should finally have our answer as to who the next junior senator from New York will be in a couple of weeks. Can’t happen soon enough.

NJ-Gov: Early Poll Looks Ugly for Corzine

Farleigh Dickinson (1/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40

Chris Christie (R): 33

Undecided: 26

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 46

Steve Lonegan (R): 28

Undecided: 26

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 43

Rick Merkt (R): 23

Undecided: 33

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Chris Christie is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey who just filed papers to run. He’s been touted for a while, and from the looks of at least this poll, he could make it a serious contest. And with Obama about to take office, Christie will be replaced (zomg! Obama’s politicizing the DOJ!), so he’ll be able to devote his full attention to this race.

Lonegan is the hyper-conservative former mayor of Bogota, a north Jersey “borough” with a population roughly the size of modern-day Wasilla, Alaska. He also took a stab at this race four years ago, coming in fourth in the seven-person primary won by Doug Forrester. Merkt, meanwhile, is a state Assemblyman who represents a district that’s also in northern New Jersey. Both declared in 2008.

I’d be pretty surprised if Christie didn’t win the primary. Jersey Republicans haven’t won a single statewide race since 1997, but ever since wingnut Brett Schundler’s disastrous run for governor in 2001, they’ve typically been able to put forth their least-sucky candidates. And right now, Christie is in the driver’s seat for the primary:

Christie: 32

Lonegan: 15

Merkt: 5

Undecided: 47

The self-funder Corzine will have no shortage of cash, but his favorables are under water at 42-44 (his job approval is a bit better, 46-40). With a wretched economic climate as backdrop, he’ll likely have a titanic struggle on his hands if Christie can prove himself at all competent as a campaigner. The scary thing is that Christie only has 44% name rec in the poll. That’s a lot of room to grow. Corzine should be very concerned.

(Hat-tip: Political Wire)

PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Toomey Considering Another Run

But for what? Roll Call:

Former Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Toomey (R) said he is considering a statewide bid in 2010, either for governor or another primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.).

“I haven’t ruled out a statewide run in 2010,” Toomey said in an interview this week.

Since losing the GOP primary to Specter by 2 points in 2004, Toomey has run the Club for Growth while living in Zionsville, Pa. In an interview in the club’s Washington, D.C., office, Toomey said he has not spoken with Specter since before the general election in 2004.

But it’s more likely that Toomey would make a bid for governor, said a Pennsylvania Republican operative close to him. The operative cautioned, however, that he would not swear off a Specter challenge if the trademark moderate Republican Senator verges too far to the left on certain issues – for example, the “card check” vote that would make it easier for workers to unionize.

If you believe Roll Call’s unnamed “operative”, it sounds like Toomey isn’t really serious about another run against Specter — the card check nonsense sounds like an idle threat to ensure that Snarlin’ Arlen toes the wingnut line once again.

MO-Sen: Emerson Won’t Run

Strike one off the list:

Missouri Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R) will not run for Senate in 2010, her office confirmed Friday morning. Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.) announced Thursday that he is retiring from the Senate after four terms.

Emerson spokesman Jeffrey Connor said the Congresswoman was content to stay in the House with her new post as the ranking member on the Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government.

Help save the system that runs this blog

Many people who read Swing State Project have never heard of Soapblox. It’s an “inexpensive, community-building content management platform developed by Paul Preston and currently used by over 100 progressive blogs,” including this one and several of my other favorites: Open Left, La Vida Locavore, and Progressive Blue.

The Iowa blog Bleeding Heartland, where I do most of my writing, is among the two dozen state community blogs for Democrats that use Soapblox.

This week hackers got into Soapblox and wreaked havoc with some of the servers, temporarily forcing several blogs off-line, including Swing State Project.

Preston has always charged low monthly fees to make the platform accessible for progressive bloggers, allowing many new community blogs to get going in the past few years.

If you appreciate this and other community blogs, the number one thing you can do to keep them going is to help BlogPAC save Soapblox.

Chris Bowers gives some background in this diary and explains what Soapblox needs “to become safe and secure once again.”

He has set up a special ActBlue page to raise money for Soapblox. They need $17,400 to complete the security measures.

Goal Thermometer

On a related note, BlogPAC has done wonderful work supporting progressive change. For that reason, I have donated my share of the Bleeding Heartland advertising revenues to BlogPAC since I started writing there nearly two years ago.

In addition to raising money for Soapblox, BlogPAC is helping Tom Geoghegan for Congress in Illinois’s fifth district (the seat vacated by Barack Obama’s chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel). You can read more about Geoghegan here. If you can spare a few extra bucks in this tough economy, please consider throwing them his way.  

Breaking: Gov. Blagojevich impeached by IL House

Vote was 114-1.  On to the Illinois State Senate this goes.

In case anyone was wondering this is the one guy who voted against:

Rep. Milt Patterson (D-Chicago)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITI…

CHICAGO, Illinois (CNN) — The Illinois House of Representatives on Friday voted almost unanimously to impeach embattled Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The vote was 114-1, with three representatives not voting.

The matter now moves to the state Senate, which will try the case and decide whether to remove Blagojevich from office.

On Thursday, an Illinois legislative committee unanimously recommended impeaching Blagojevich amid corruption allegations.

Blagojevich was arrested last month after federal prosecutors alleged, among other things, that he tried to sell the U.S. Senate seat that President-elect Barack Obama vacated.

“Today is the day that we begin to give back democracy to the people of the state of Illinois,” Democratic Rep. Jack Franks, a panel member, said as he cast his aye vote Thursday night.

Blagojevich “has been AWOL and derelict of his duties. He has abused his powers, and he has brought shame to this great state,” Franks said.

“I believe that Rod Blagojevich is a liar, and I believe he is a thief,” Franks said. “He has stolen the trust of the people.”

The committee heard testimony Thursday afternoon from Roland Burris, the man Blagojevich appointed to succeed Obama in the Senate.

Burris denied any quid pro quo with Blagojevich for his appointment to the Senate. Burris, former attorney general for Illinois, is not accused of engaging in “pay-to-play” politics with Blagojevich.

Blagojevich denies any wrongdoing and has rejected calls for his resignation.

“I would have appreciated it if he had stepped aside, and we would not have been made the laughingstock of the country,” said Rep. Mary Flowers, another Democrat. She noted, however, that the governor is “innocent until proven guilty.”

The 21-member committee looked into Blagojevich’s actions on a number of issues beyond the federal allegations, including an allegation he withheld state money from a children’s hospital until he received a $50,000 campaign donation.

Rep. Chapin Rose, a Republican, called the alleged behavior “repugnant.”

“The report speaks for itself and contains many, many, many acts that I find, and most of my colleagues find, to be impeachable,” Rose said.

“The evidence is overwhelmingly damning,” he said.

U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald initiated a criminal complaint against Blagojevich after listening to wiretaps of the governor’s phone conversations.

Blagojevich was arrested December 9 but has not been indicted. A federal judge in Chicago told Fitzgerald he has until April 7 to decide whether to charge the Illinois governor.

The committee’s report said it found the government’s allegations against Blagojevich “shocking” and believes the information in the federal complaint “is sufficiently credible to demonstrate an abuse of office” that was “inconsistent with the governor’s constitutional oath.”

The Illinois committee’s report points out that Blagojevich does not need to be found guilty of a crime for the House to impeach him. “It would, in fact, be unreasonable to limit impeachable offenses to criminal conduct,” the report says.

“An impeachment inquiry is not a criminal proceeding and its purpose is not punitive. Rather, impeachment is a remedial proceeding to protect the public from an officer who has abused his position of trust.”

The committee pointed out that the criminal complaint against Blagojevich alleges he was secretly taped saying he would not appoint anyone to Obama’s seat without some form of compensation. iReport.com: Do you trust your political leaders?

“The governor repeatedly demonstrated that his decision to appoint a senator would not be based on merits of the candidate or on public policy, but rather on how that appointment could benefit him personally,” the report said.

“The governor directed various individuals to conduct inquiries on his behalf to negotiate deals for the Senate appointment, affirmatively setting into action a plot to trade the Senate appointment for something of value to the governor,” it said.

Blagojevich declined the committee’s offer to testify on his own behalf, the report said.

WY-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread

The toughest hold? Democrat Dave Freudenthal is term-limited out of the Governor’s office in Wyoming after the 2010 elections, and Republicans will be licking their chops to run for the open seat. For our sakes, hopefully that means a bloody and contentious primary, but that’s only good for us if we have a strong candidate in place to take advantage of the aftermath. Gary Trauner, coming off two losses in a row, could give the Governor’s race a go, but there might be some less obvious choices worth looking at further down the totem pole. What have we got?

Dueling New York Senate Polls

Lets go through the rough on these two polls then hit some analysis on why there are such grandure contradictions between them.  

PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

January 3-4: Margin of Error 3.7%


Caroline Kennedy (D) – 46%

Peter King (R) – 44%

Undecided – 10%

Caroline Kennedy’s Favorability Ratings:


Favorable – 44%

Unfavorable – 40%

Not Sure – 16%

Peter King’s Favorability Ratings:


Favorable – 34%

Unfavorable – 26%

Not Sure – 40%

Party Breakdown for the Kennedy/King Head to Head:

Kennedy:

Democrats – 65%

Republicans – 19%

Other – 35%

King:

Democrats – 25%

Republicans – 74%

Other – 50%

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…


Caroline Kennedy (D) – 51%

Peter King (R) – 33%

Third Party – 9%

Not Sure – 7%

Why the staunch contrast in the head to head matchup?  Favorability Ratings.  

Caroline Kennedy’s Favorability Ratings:


Favorable – 63%

Unfavorable – 31%

Not Sure – 6%

Peter King’s Favorability Ratings:


Favorable – 39%

Unfavorable – 27%

Not Sure – 34%

Party Breakdown for the Kennedy/King Head to Head:

In the match-up with King, Kennedy gets support from 74% of Democrats and holds a 12-point lead among unaffiliated voters. King is supported by 73% of Republicans.

Now, between these two polls I’m leaning toward Rasmussen.  Why?  She split Republicans and Democrats more evenly in that poll, which is realistic because most elections split 90-10 or 85-15 in partisan support.  The wild card is the other category.  There is a 27 point difference between PPP and Rasmussen and how Kennedy and King split the other vote.  

King’s approval ratings and support among Republicans is consistent and crosses over between the two polls.  I just don’t see Kennedy’s approvals being closer to 44/40 than 63/31.  

I have to go to sleep, I may add more tomorrow after work.  Please share thoughts on why there is such a sharp contrast between polls in certain areas and similar findings in others, or which poll is more accurate and why.