Month: January 2009

Quinnipiac (1/14-19, registered voters):

Alex Sink (D): 15

Kendrick Meek (D): 13

Ron Klein (D): 9

Allen Boyd (D): 8

Dan Gelber (D): 1

Don’t know: 54

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Bill McCollum (R): 22

Connie Mack IV (R): 21

Vern Buchanan (R): 10

Marco Rubio (R): 6

Allan Bense (R): 2

Don’t know: 39

(MoE: ±4.3%)

If the primary elections for the Florida senate race were held today, “Don’t know” would sweep both nominations in a landslide. At this point, this is a name recognition test, and Floridians seem to have no idea who these candidates are. At any rate, there seems to be something of a hierarchy here: statewide officials (Sink, McCollum) fare best, then U.S. Representatives, with state legislative leaders down in no man’s land.

On the Dem side, Kendrick Meek has the edge among current candidates. But assuming that he comes in with fairly high name rec from being in the state’s largest media market, and that he’s probably already consolidated the state’s African-American vote, he may not have as much room to grow as the other candidates.

Unfortunately, this poll has a major wrinkle; it was in the field when Alex Sink announced that she wasn’t going to be a Senate candidate, so presumably some respondents were operating under the assumption that Sink was a likely candidate while others knew that she wouldn’t be. In fact, the only head-to-head Quinnipiac tried out involved Sink as the Dem nominee (McCollum 36, Sink 35, with 29 don’t know). Here’s hoping they try again soon with some other permutations.

Hello! I’m Charlie Wheelan and I’m running for Congress in the 5th District of Illinois to replace Congressman Rahm Emanuel, who has resigned to serve as Barack Obama’s chief of staff.

You can learn more about me at

http://www.WheelanforCongress.com

This was a remarkable day. I remember when Barack Obama spoke at our neighbor’s house, just over the back alley, when he was beginning his run for the Senate. I remember sitting with Leah at the kitchen table reading in the Sun-Times that Obama might run for president, and being thrilled by the mere idea of it. And I remember standing outside the old Capitol in Springfield on a cold January day when he made his official announcement for president-the bookend to what we watched today.

Obama was obviously on the front page of today’s Chicago Tribune. But I want to draw your attention to David Greising’s column in the business section, which focuses on my candidacy. He writes of my candidacy, “This is part of what makes this country great. Congress is chock-full of politicians, certainly. But there are also are a smattering of citizens who get motivated, leave lives of comfort, put themselves in front of the people and try to do some good.”

The timing of the column is not coincidence. Greising writes that Inauguration Day-“when a once-obscure former University of Chicago law professor takes the presidential oath of office”-is a good time to contemplate how a tough race can turn out well. I urge you to read the whole article and pass it on.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/…

If you’re inspired today, please help us capture that momentum to upgrade Congress as well.

Thanks,

Charlie

A Democratic President, a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House. We’ve been waiting for this for fifteen years – that’s half my lifetime. And it’s finally here. Wow.

Of course, Rahm Emanuel is irreplaceable. But nonetheless, the filing deadline for the IL-05 special election closed earlier tonight. Twenty-six candidates filed, including fifteen Dems. Here’s what the Democratic field will look like (in alphabetical order, with descriptions mostly taken from Wikipedia):

Annunzio, Frank – great newphew of Frank Annunzio, deceased longtime Chicago-area Congressman

Bryar, Paul – physician at Northwestern Memorial and professor at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine

Capparelli, Cary – marketing consultant

Dagher, Pete – former Bill Clinton and Barack Obama staffer

Donatelli, Jan – former commercial pilot

Feigenholtz, Sara – state Representative

Forys, Victor – physician

Fritchey, John – state Representative

Geoghegan, Tom – labor attorney and author

Monteagudo, Carlos

O’Connor, Patrick – Chicago alderman

Oberman, Justin – former Transportation Security Administration administrator (and son of former Alderman Marty Oberman)

Quigley, Mike – Cook County commissioner

Thompson, Roger

Wheelan, Charles – Senior Lecturer at the University of Chicago and author

Progress Illinois says there are no real surprises here, though they’re skeptical of how seriously Ald. Pat O’Connor will run (he filed at 4:59pm – second thoughts?). Nonetheless, there are still several big names here (principally Feingenholtz and Fritchey), making it a challenge for other candidates to break through, especially in such a short time-frame.

The primary is on March 3rd.

Associated Press:

Democratic Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo believes he would have the upper hand if he decides to run for the Senate seat now held by the Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Bunning.

Mongiardo told The Associated Press on Friday that if he enters the race he expects the 77-year-old Republican to bow out. Bunning eked out a win in 2004 when Mongiardo, then a littleknown state senator from Hazard, ran for the post.

Mongiardo said he believes Bunning would rather not run than to face him again.

Mongiardo said: “I don’t think Sen. Bunning has the fight left in him to run.”

Meanwhile, where is Jim Bunning?

Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning’s absence during the busy first week of the 111th Congress has raised questions about the 77-year-old junior senator’s viability as a candidate for re-election in 2010.

So far this month, Bunning, who sits on the Senate’s Finance, Energy and Natural Resources and Banking committees, missed three cabinet confirmation hearings and a GOP strategy session on President-elect Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package. He’s also missed critical votes on releasing the second portion of the $700 billion federal bailout on the nation’s troubled financial sector – a measure Bunning has staunchly opposed.

Bunning’s congressional staffers attribute his absences to family commitments and declined to discuss where the senator has been for the better part of a month. He did not return a call for comment, but his office issued a statement saying Bunning is ready to take on whomever the Democratic Party fields as a candidate next year.

I like Dr. Dan for this race, and I like seeing a candidate with some fire in his belly. But is he really trying to goad Bunning into retirement? The CW – which I agree with – is that Dems would much rather take on the Hall of Fame pitcher than a generic R replacement. Then again, if Jimbo is pulling a Pajama Pete maneuver (Jammy Jimmy?), Mongiardo may just be embracing the inevitable.

(Hat-tip: P)

Outgoing Delaware Lt. Gov. John Carney says in a podcast (go to about 19:45):

It’s been difficult to get people to step up to the plate and run against Congressman Castle. I gotta tell you, that’s something I’m looking at right now.

This is pretty big news – Carney would probably be our best bet to take on Castle in 2010. (DE, regularly blue for several cycles, went for the Obama-Biden ticket by a 62-37 margin.) Carney also mentions that he might be interested in a Senate run. However, in this interview, he suggests that he’s not interested in repeat his bruising 2008 gubernatorial primary experience in a Senate face-off with, say, Beau Biden. So if Beau runs for his dad’s old seat, Carney could well take on Old Man Mike.

(Thanks to Jeremiah for spotting SG’s catch of this Delaware Liberal post.)

It’s become something of blogospheric conventional wisdom, over the last few years, that running for the House two times in a row was the right approach: that in some cases it takes one cycle to build name recognition and make fundraising connections, and one more cycle to close the deal with voters. Fans of Paul Hodes, Jerry McNerney, Nancy Boyda, or Joe Donnelly (he must have a netroots fan somewhere?) could point to their successes in 2006, on the second try, as evidence.

On the other hand, for every Hodes or McNerney in the House, there’s a “where are they now?” bin with Lois Murphy, Diane Farrell, Patty Wetterling, or Francine Busby in it. 2008 seemed to have a particularly large number of Democratic candidates giving it a second shot, so it may be worth stopping to examine those races.

Unfortunately, there wasn’t a particularly high success ratio: of the 14 races that were considered competitive where the Democratic candidate was making a second run, only three four made it over the finish line (Dan Maffei, Eric Massa, Mary Jo Kilroy, and Larry Kissell). These candidates seemed to benefit from a perfect storm of traction from a repeat run, and running against weakened opponents (a different opponent for Maffei in the wake of Jim Walsh’s retirement and a bungled GOP recruitment, and befuddled, unlikable opponents for Massa and Kissell). (On the following table, * indicates a different opponent in 2008.)

The others seemed to falter, either in the face of a nutty GOPer but too red a district (Brown, Wulsin, probably Esch) or an uncontroversial ‘moderate’ incumbent with a strong hold on a suburban district (Seals, Burner, Feder). By contrast, because of the confluence of swing districts and craptacular opponents, NY-25, NY-29, and NC-08 seem like races we likely could have won with or without a returning opponent (although the prospect of a Maffei rematch may have caused Walsh’s retirement)… which isn’t to say that we should avoid rematches, simply that it may not provide as much of an advantage as conventional wisdom currently holds.

Also, I can’t help but notice one troubling pattern: the male reruns improved on their 2006 numbers. The female reruns declined. If you look at the names above from the 2004-06 cycles, you see the same pattern (Nancy Boyda excepted). I won’t attempt to psychoanalyze that, but it’s disappointing nonetheless.

UPDATE: A reader helpfully points out that I left out Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran against a different opponent in 2008. I was prepared to have to admit that this screws up my theory, but interestingly, even though she won on her second try, the rate at which she improved her margin was still lower than any of the male rerun candidates.

UPDATE II: Another reader points out Gary Trauner, another repeat runner but against a different opponent. So there is, in fact, one male candidate who lost ground (albeit while running in Wyoming in a presidential year).

District	Dem	2006 margin	2008 margin	Diff.
NY-25	Dan Maffei *	-1.6 (49.2/50.8)	12.9 (54.8/41.9)	14.5
NC-08	Larry Kissell	-0.2 (49.9/50.1)	10.8 (55.4/44.6)	11.0
NE-02	Jim Esch	-9.4 (45.3/54.7)	-3.8 (48.1/51.9)	5.6
NY-29	Eric Massa	-3.0 (48.5/51.5)	2.0 (51.0/49.0)	5.0
CA-04	Charlie Brown *	-4.5 (45.4/49.9)	-0.6 (49.7/50.3)	3.9
IL-10	Dan Seals	-6.8 (46.6/53.4)	-5.2 (47.4/52.6)	1.6
OH-15	Mary Jo Kilroy *	-0.5 (49.7/50.2)	0.7 (45.9/45.2)	1.2
WA-08	Darcy Burner	-3.0 (48.5/51.5)	-5.6 (47.2/52.8)	-2.6
VA-10	Judy Feder	-16.3 (41.0/57.3)	-20.0 (38.8/58.8)	-3.7
NV-02	Jill Derby	-5.5 (44.9/50.4)	-10.4 (41.4/51.8)	-4.9
OH-02	Victoria Wulsin	-1.1 (49.4/50.5)	-7.3 (37.5/44.8)	-6.2
NJ-07	Linda Stender *	-1.5 (47.9/49.4)	-8.0 (42.2/50.2)	-6.5
WY-AL	Gary Trauner *	-0.5 (47.8/48.3)	-9.8 (42.8/52.6)	-9.3
FL-13	Christine Jennings	-0.2 (49.9/50.1)	-18.0 (37.5/55.5)	-17.8

Just to make sure that I wasn’t focused on high-profile losses while missing races that flew under the radar (which, as best as I can remember, was where Hodes, McNerney, Boyda, and Donnelly all flew in 2004), I looked at all the non-competitive races where I could find Democratic reruns as well. With a couple exceptions in California (which may have to do mostly with the surprisingly strong coattails Obama generated for Dems downticket in that state), the lower-profile reruns also gained little traction.

District	Dem	2006 margin	2008 margin	Diff.
CA-03	Bill Durston	-21.6 (37.9/59.5)	-5.5 (44.0/49.5)	16.1
CA-48	Steve Young	-22.8 (37.2/60.0)	-15.1 (40.6/55.7)	7.7
NC-03	Craig Weber	-37.2 (31.4/68.6)	-31.8 (34.1/65.9)	5.4
NJ-11	Tom Wyka	-25.5 (36.6/62.1)	-24.8 (37.0/61.8)	0.7
AZ-02	John Thrasher	-19.7 (38.9/58.6)	-22.2 (37.2/59.4)	-2.5
FL-05	John Russell	-19.8 (40.1/59.9)	-22.4 (38.8/61.2)	-2.6
PA-19	Phil Avilo	-30.5 (33.5/64.0)	-33.2 (33.4/66.6)	-2.7
PA-09	Tony Barr	-20.6 (39.7/60.3)	-27.8 (36.1/63.9)	-7.2
TX-04	Glenn Melancon	-31.0 (33.4/64.4)	-39.5 (29.3/68.8)	-8.5
IN-06	Barry Welsh	-20.0 (40.0/60.0)	-30.5 (33.4/63.9)	-10.5

Public Policy Polling (1/17-18, registered voters):

Jennifer Brunner (D): 34

Rob Portman (R): 42

Undecided: 24

Lee Fisher (D): 39

Rob Portman (R): 41

Undecided: 20

Tim Ryan (D): 34

Rob Portman (R): 40

Undecided: 26

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Portman begins the race with an early edge over the potential Democratic field, but it’s nothing insurmountable. Name recognition may be something of a factor here, but interestingly, Portman registers the highest percentage of ambivalence among voters of the four names tested; a full 49% have no opinion of him, while his favorable/unfavorable score clocks in at 28-23.

By comparison, Fisher’s numbers are 40-32, Ryan’s are 26-27, and Brunner (Ohio’s Secretary of State) has the highest unfavorables of the bunch at 34-36. Undoubtedly, Brunner’s involvement in a plethora of lawsuits during and after the election (most notably surrounding early voting, but also the drawn-out OH-15 saga) drew a good deal of scorn from the Ohio GOP. Perhaps those numbers might settle down some when the ’08 election fades farther away in our rear view mirrors — or perhaps not.

Portman also scores very highly among Republican voters — he draws in a full 80% of Republicans off the bat against Fisher and Brunner (and 74% against Ryan), while the potential Democratic candidates are only drawing between 59% (Brunner) and 68% (Fisher) of Democrats. Still, with the kind of baggage that Portman is carrying, a good campaign should be able to shore up these numbers over the next two years.

Yes, tomorrow is Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, but it’s also the filing deadline for the IL-05 special election to replace Rahm Emanuel, and the IL Board of Elections will be open to receive nominating petitions. That’ll finally give us some clarity on the Democratic field. The special primary, by the way is March 3rd. The general is on April 7th, but that will almost surely be a formality – Kerry won this district 67-33, and Obama 73-26.

Also, one of the candidates running released an internal poll for the Dem primary. Anzalone-Liszt for Mike Quigley (1/8-13, likely voters, no trendlines)

Mike Quigley: 19%

Sara Feigenholtz: 11%

John Fritchey: 8%

Justin Oberman: 2%

Cary Capparelli: 1%

Jan Donatelli: 1%

(MoE: ±4.4%)

You can find a run-down of these names at Wikipedia. One big difficulty with this poll is that it didn’t include labor lawyer & netroots fave Tom Geoghegan, who declared shortly before this poll went into the field. So I’m not really sure what to make of these numbers.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more polling once the field is set. But like almost all specials, this one will likely be a bear to survey accurately.