Tag: WA-Gov

Rasmussen (9/10, likely voters, 8/6 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 46 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 52 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Huh? That’s a gigantic jump for Rossi in the Washington governor’s race, with the first poll of the entire race to give him more than a one-point lead. With nothing having happened in the last month that would move the dial much in this race (other than a continued deluge of Rossi ads), it would be kind of hard to believe if it weren’t for last week’s SurveyUSA poll, which also had Rossi taking the lead (albeit by one point). Even if this Rasmussen poll is a bit of an outlier (the same sample had Obama up by only 2, which also shows a much closer race than anyone else before), it can’t be that screwed up an outlier, and in view of SUSA’s poll it should probably be viewed as at best a tied race (see the Pollster.com chart now).

A look inside the crosstabs shows the main problem for Gregoire… and also the main problem with the poll itself. Rossi is winning 89-8 among McCain voters, while Gregoire is winning only 81-19 among Obama voters. That’s believable (maybe some Obama/Rossi voters are taking ‘change’ a little too comprehensively).

On the other hand, this poll shows one of the key Obama demographics, the youth vote, going overwhelmingly for Rossi (shades of that SUSA WA-08 poll last week). 18-29 year olds favor Rossi 72-20, 30-39 year olds favor Rossi 58-39, and 40-49 year olds favor Rossi 52-47. Only the 50+ crowd favors Gregoire. Now that smells a little fishy.

Rasmussen (9/11, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 54 (51)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 39 (39)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The open seat governor’s race in Missouri is a completely different story, with Attorney General Jay Nixon on cruise control. Representative Kenny Hulshof (who was at 38 in July) doesn’t seem to have gotten a bump out of the Republican convention, winning his own primary, or anything else. With Washington and North Carolina both looking fuzzy right now, though, a victory here might just lead to a net gain of zero in the statehouses.

UPDATE (James): A new Elway poll of Washington gives Gregoire a 48-44 lead, and says that Obama is leading McCain by 46-37. (Tip o’ the cap: conspiracy)

SurveyUSA (9/5-7, likely voters, 7/18-20 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 47 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

In Washington, SurveyUSA comes out with the first poll since March giving GOP challenger Dino Rossi a lead. Two thoughts: this poll was taken over the weekend, at the very peak of the afterglow from the Republican convention, and Rossi has also been hitting the airwaves hard with ads (although that looks to continue for the foreseeable future… the Republican Governor’s Association, not having many other places to spend its money, gave Rossi $1 million on Aug. 21).

Although the crosstabs look quite normal, there’s also something kind of fishy about how some of the numbers break down. In May, Gregoire led by 24 points among women, and trailed by 20 points among men. Today, Gregoire and Rossi are tied among women, and Rossi leads by 2 among men. The Palin pick couldn’t have had that much of an effect, could it? (Especially since polls have generally indicated that pick was more popular with men than women.) In addition, the same sample gave Obama a lead of only 49-45, which is the smallest lead he’s had in Washington since February.

The Pollster.com graph for the race can be seen here.

Votes are now being counted in Washington, where the “top two” primaries are being decided. While Washington’s mail-in system will mean that we won’t get the full picture tonight, we’ll at least get a piece of it. We’ll be following the returns for WA-Gov and WA-08 in this here thread.

RESULTS: WA-08 | WA-Gov (by county)

SoS: WA-Gov | WA-08

12:50PM Wed: With 77K votes counted in WA-08, Reichert has a 2600 vote lead over Burner. But: Two other Dems combined brought in an additional 4000 votes, and Reichert has only scored under 48% so far with no other “GOP Party” member on the ballot. Not a bad place for Darcy to be midway through August. Not a bad place, indeed.

12:32AM: SSP Labs is shutting down for the day. Presumably, these results will be finalized in a few days…

12:03AM: Check out the results for WA-08 in more detail — the other two Democrats combine for nearly 6% of the vote. Add all the Dem votes together, and you’re over 50% to the GOP’s 44%.

11:47PM: Reichert has pulled ahead by 1700 votes according to the SoS.

11:45PM: ChuckInSeattle, in the comments, shares some alternate results links (now included above).

11:38PM: 10% reporting statewide, and Gregoire leads Rossi 50-44.

11:27PM: With 13% in, Davey Reichert leads Darcy Burner by a nose: 20,356 to 20,140. Strong turnout so far.

11:19PM ET: Rossi with the early lead (50-43) with 4% in. Nothing from the 8th yet.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

UPDATE: Polls close at 9pm ET in Wyoming, and 11pm ET in Washington. Stay tuned for updates.

It’s primary day in Washington and Wyoming! By the end of the night, we’ll be able to gather some unique data from the hotly-contested gubernatorial and 8th CD races in Washington, as candidates from all parties will square off against each other on the same ballot, and the top two finishers will square off in the general election.

In Wyoming, state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis and rancher Mark Gordon will face off with several other candidates in a hotly-contested primary for the GOP nomination to succeed retiring wingnut Rep. Babs Cubin.

Now’s your chance to reach for Olympic SSP glory. Who will win these races, and by how much?

SurveyUSA (8/11-12, likely voters, 7/13-15 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (49)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (46)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 47 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (46)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (3)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The nation’s two closest gubernatorial races continue to be, well, close according to SurveyUSA. In Washington, SurveyUSA’s numbers stay extremely consistent, with each side gaining a smidge of support, to the extent that only 2% of respondents remain undecided with more than two months to go. I doubt too many people have changed their minds since 2004. (The stability of this race is best seen graphed over at Pollster.com.)

One thing to bear in mind is that Rossi has been engaged in saturation advertising this month (there’s a freakin’ Rossi banner ad at the top of my screen no matter what site I’m looking at), in order to ramp up his numbers for the primary/beauty contest next week, while Gregoire has backed off a bit on advertising. Rossi, I’d imagine, is counting on getting some momentum out of a surprise squeaker victory in the Top 2 primary, possible since he has the more motivated supporters and there won’t be any Obama coattails next week. (As I mentioned in the comments a few days ago, the minor candidates in the primary are a particularly hapless lot this year, incapable of playing spoiler to either Rossi or Gregoire.)

As for the Tar Heel State, that looks very stable too. Here’s its Pollster.com graph. The main fluctuation seems to be right-leaners trying to decide whether to go with McCrory or Munger. (I suspect they’ll, as usual, go with the Republican, which why I’d bet this race winds up being a little closer than Washington in November.)

Survey USA (8/11-12, 718 LVs, July in parentheses):

Gregiore:  50% (49)

Rossi:     48% (46)

One week before the “beauty contest,” Rossi has closed the gap a bit further.  This is going to be very close, and I think who finishes first on the 19th will win in November.  Gregoire just can’t put the race away.  No surprises in the internals this time (shock!) but Rossi leads 50-44 among independents and leads 51-47 among the 42% who think the economy is the most important issue.

Also of note:

Obama’s lead in the state is down to 51-44, a nine point drop from last month.  

Dino Rossi has been going to great lengths to hide his conservative nature in the Washington gubernatorial race: starting with deferring all questions about issues that are sure-fire losers in a blue state (like abortion, always deferred with an “I’m not running on that issue“), and even going so far as to ditch the entire Republican label in favor of the “GOP Party“.

Rossi has also taken extreme measures to keep Democratic cameramen out of his events (to the extent of roping off large swaths of public property), in order to avoid the fate that befell George Allen two years ago almost to the day. Last Thursday Rossi was making an appearance at the Seattle Police Guild headquarters to receive the Guild’s endorsement, and Democratic cameraman Kelly Akers showed up to join other photographers inside the Guild building. Rossi did not get the chance to welcome his friend Akers here, or welcome him to America and the real world of Washington. Instead, off-duty police officers providing security for the event roughed up Akers and forcibly removed him from the event. According to the Seattle Times:

Akers was confronted by three off-duty police officers, and he says one or more grabbed him and pushed him out of the building. Once outside they continued to argue as the officers held Akers in what he described as a “submission hold.”

That’s just current Rossi campaign policy, apparently:

“We don’t allow them in to collect attack video,” Rossi spokeswoman Jill Strait said.

Horse’s Ass has YouTube video of the confrontation, and also, as an amusing compare-and-contrast, video of the rough reception that Rossi’s trackers get when they show up at Christine Gregoire events. As Goldy puts it:

Jesus Christ… they did everything but offer him milk and cookies.

Rasmussen (8/6, likely voters, 7/9, 6/9 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (49, 50)

Dino Rossi (R): 43 (43, 43)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I’ve repeatedly proclaimed my boredom with the stability of this race (howzabout a new MO-Gov poll instead now that we’ve had the primary?). And maybe the blogger code of ethics should demand that I recuse myself from reporting this poll since I was actually one of the persons polled. Nevertheless, here’s the new Rasmussen: a little more downward drift for Gregoire, Rossi still stuck in park at 43. It’s 50-46 with leaners pushed.

The same sample gives Obama a 52-40 lead, so Gregoire is underperforming the top of the ticket a bit (again). Given Rossi’s inability to increase his share, though, inertia might be enough to carry her over the finish line (again).

Elway Research (7/27-31, registered voters, 6/8-12 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 52 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 36 (39)

(MoE: ±5%)

The new Elway poll on the Washington governor’s race gives Gregoire her largest lead of any poll this cycle, although it’s pretty consistent with previous Elway and Rasmussen polling.

Strategic Vision (R) (7/25-27, likely voters, 10/5-7/2007 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±3%)

SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision have been presenting a much closer picture of the race, although they’ve also been extremely consistent from poll to poll. (In fact, Strategic Vision gets exactly the same result as the last time they polled the race nine months ago.) As I’ve commented before, this is a race where almost every mind has been made up for four years, and we’re mostly just seeing differences in pollsters’ models.

The Elway poll also polled some downballot issues (albeit with huge undecided numbers), including the suddenly-hotly-contested race for Commissioner of Public Lands. Former Agriculture Director (and 2006 candidate in WA-05) Peter Goldmark (D) is leading two-term incumbent Doug Sutherland (R) 31-30. (Sexual harassment allegations against Sutherland recently came to light.)

In the Attorney General’s race, incumbent Rob McKenna (R) leads Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg (D) 41-30. And the highest-profile initiative on the ballot, I-1000 (to allow physician-assisted suicide), is favored 39-26.

Rasmussen (7/9, likely voters) (6/9 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 49 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This strikes me as the most heavily polled governor’s race in the nation, but I’m really starting to wonder why. The numbers are remarkably stable from poll to poll, not just with Rasmussen but with SurveyUSA and Elway as well. Each poll has a slightly different snapshot, probably based on how they weight their samples, but the snapshot is very similar each month. People have had their minds made up about this one since 2004.