OH-05, VA-01: NRCC Dropping Cash in Special Elections

When you’re as hard-pressed for cash as the NRCC is, I’m sure that the last thing you want to do is dump money that you don’t have into defending two deeply red districts in off-year special elections.  But the NRCC is doing just that — spending precious cash to defend the seats of the late Reps. Paul Gillmor (OH-05) and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01).

As a refresher, let’s take a look at how red these districts really are.  OH-05 has a PVI of R+10.1, and VA-01 sits at R+8.9.  To put it another way, these districts supported Bush by 21 and 22-point margins in 2004.  On any given day, these districts should be rock solid turf for the GOP.

But, as Roll Call reports, the NRCC is taking nothing for granted, making some independent expenditures against VA-01 Dem nominee and Iraq vet Phil Forgit on behalf of state Delegate Rob Wittman, the GOP candidate:

NRCC officials refused to comment about the committee’s strategy in the special election.

But the committee’s independent expenditure arm this week spent almost $8,000 to produce an ad attacking Forgit that hasn’t yet aired, bringing its total expenditures for anti-Forgit activity to almost $39,000. The NRCC also has spent about $3,100 on phone banks to help Wittman.

As Roll Call implies, that expenditure will balloon very shortly, as the NRCC buys the necessary ad time to put their Forgit attack ad on the air.

We can also expect some NRCC-funded fireworks in Ohio’s 5th district, where Republicans have spent over $9000 for the production of another ad (this one positive in tone, apparently) in support of Republican Bob Latta.  Latta, as you may recall, won a bruising primary against state Sen. Steve Buehrer earlier this month.

Is the NRCC really sweating over the prospect of losing these districts?  It would be a shocker for either of these races to end up in the Dem column, but perhaps Republicans are intent on playing it safe, because they can’t afford not to.

VA-01: Dems Nominate Forgit, Club For Growther Leading Early GOP Vote

Virginia Democrats have nominated Phil Forgit, a navy vet and a guy who ran a close race for the House of Delegates in a very conservative district back in 2003, as their candidate for the Dec. 12 special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R).

On the GOP side, the second ballot results are in, and so far businessman Paul Jost, the chairman of the VA Club For Growth and an ally of ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R), is leading the field:

SECOND BALLOTING FINISHED:

1) Paul Jost got 126.51 votes
2) Sherwood Bowditch got 105.43 votes.
3) Chuck Davis got 85.30 votes.
4) Delegate Rob Whitman got 82.55 votes.
5) Jim Bowden got 62 votes.
6) Delegate Dick Black got 59 votes.
7) David Caprara got 37 votes. (DROPPED OUT AND ENDORSED DAVIS)

The Shad Plank is keeping up to the minute tabs on all the GOP action.  I’m not too familiar with Jost, but given his deep ties with the Club For Growth, I’ll be very intrigued by this race should he be the nominee.

Update: According to Raising Kaine, Republicans have nominated Delegate Rob Wittman.  Should Wittman win the special election in December, perhaps former Delegate Al Pollard (D), who recently lost a very close race for the state Senate, might be compelled to run for his old seat in the Virginia House.

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Never a dull moment, huh?  What a week it’s been: the ousting of the supreme crumb-bum Ernie Fletcher in Kentucky, chamber pick-ups in Virginia and Mississippi, a Republican “wunderkind” exposed as being out of his league and out of his mind in Illinois, a couple more SCHIP-hating Republicans retire from the House (making that 16 GOPers and counting), and last but not least: word that Rep. Tom Udall will run for Senate.

How did the week treat you?

VA-01: Special Election Date Set for Dec. 11

CQ Politics:

A Dec. 11 special election will be held to fill the vacant seat in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District. The winner will succeed Republican Jo Ann Davis, who died Oct. 6 of breast cancer while serving her fourth House term.

Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine on Tuesday set the special election date, which is just seven weeks away. The special election will be a one-shot deal, with no primary contests: Democratic and Republican officials in the 1st District will select their parties’ nominees – and the timing of the selection process is likely to turn the special election campaign into an all-out sprint.

Republicans are expected to pick their candidate at a convention on Nov. 17. According to the state GOP, about two-dozen Republicans are seeking the seat or considering doing so.

It’s not certain when the local Democrats will hold their nominating convention, nor is it clear who will run on the Democratic side.

CQ also points out that the election to replace Rep. Paul Gillmor is the same day. The primary for that race is Nov. 6th.

Race Tracker: VA-01