Tag: MS-Sen-B

Hamilton Campaigns (5/15-18, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 48

Roger Wicker (R-inc*): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Musgrove’s favorables are at 57-30, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting at 42-14.  In the 1st Congressional District, Wicker’s homebase (and one picked up by Democrat Travis Childers last week), Wicker only leads by 48-43.  Even the presidential race is reasonably close:

Like the 1st District race, party labels will not appear on the ballot beside Wicker and Musgrove’s name, because the November race is technically a special election to fill Republican Trent Lott’s seat. That factor could help Musgrove win voters who are also planning to vote for Republican Sen. John McCain, who is winning the state 50%-41%, according to the poll. President Bush won Mississippi 59%-39% in 2004.

(One for the good guys – promoted by DavidNYC)

Hinds County Judge Bobby Delaughter ruled a couple of hours ago that Governor Barbour (R) exceeded his authority in declaring the special election be held in November 2008 to fill former Senator Trent Lott’s seat.

The Judge ruled that the special election will now have to be held on or before March 19, 2008!  Expect this to go to the state Supreme Court.

This is great news for state Democrats.  I’m sure Chuck Schumer is breathing a nice sigh of relief… for now.

For those unfamiliar with Judge Delaughter – who I know personally to be a great, fairminded judge – refer to the movie Ghosts of Mississippi.  Alec Baldwin does a good job playing Bobby.

From the Clarion Ledger:

Former U.S. Rep. Ronnie Shows told The Associated Press on Saturday that he will run for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Trent Lott.

Shows, a Democrat who was ousted from Congress by Republican Rep. Chip Pickering in 2002 after Mississippi lost a House seat, joins former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove and U.S. Rep. Roger Wicker in the race.

Shows said Pickering’s decision not to run for the Senate seat pushed him into re-entering political life.

“It just opened the door for me that I didn’t think was there before,” Shows said. “I think this opportunity doesn’t come by very often – to have an open Senate seat – and it’s something I feel ready to do. And I think I can win.”

As you might know, Shows lost his seat due to redistricting. I have to say that I wish he’d seek his old seat again, given that Pickering is now retiring.

Of greater concern, though, is the fact that the MS-Sen-B special will be a Louisiana-style jungle election (ie, all candidates run together in a single race, with, I believe, the top two vote-getters going into a runoff if a certain threshold is not met by the first-place finisher). With two Dems vs. one Republican, it seems like this race just got a lot harder to pull off. At the very least, we now certainly can’t win in the first round. We need to hope that either a bunch more Republicans get in, or that Shows or Musgrove changes his mind.

Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is making it official — he will run for the Senate against his old roommate Roger Wicker:

Former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove confirmed to The Associated Press on Friday that he will run for the U.S. Senate.

Musgrove plans to hold a series of news conferences Monday in Tupelo, Jackson, Hattiesburg and Gulfport.

“I’ll be announcing, yes,” Musgrove told the AP in a telephone interview from his law office in Madison County.

With Mike Moore off the table, Musgrove is probably the next best bet, and the early polls that we’ve all seen confirm that he still has a significant level of support in the state.  Will it hold up in a federal election?

This will be an interesting race to watch — whenever it’s held.

Multiple sources are confirming that Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will appoint MS-01 Rep. Roger Wicker (R) to fill the vacancy of retiring Sen. Trent Lott today.  (Update: It’s now official.)

A recent Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll had Wicker trailing former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove by a 48-34 margin in a hypothetical election match-up.  However, longtime SSP commenter Mississippiboy says that Musgrove won’t run.  I have yet to see published confirmation, but if accurate, Dems would have few obvious choices left on their shelf.  Former Gov. Ray Mabus, maybe? (Update: I think we can put Musgrove back in the “uncertain” column for now.)

If Dems can’t line up a strong challenger here, state AG Jim Hood’s legal fight over the timing of the special election will be made mostly moot.

We’ll keep our eyes peeled.

So says Clarion Ledger columnist and blogger Sid Salter. The N.E. Miss. Daily Journal also notes that Wicker & his wife met with Barbour yesterday.

Despite MS-01 being an R+10 district, Salter thinks that the open-seat race here (should Wicker get tapped) would be a “spirited” one. And though I haven’t delved into the numbers myself, I’m told that this area is considered competitive, at least on a state & local level.

But at least for another day or so, this is all in the realm of speculation.

Columnist Bill Minor thinks it’s possible:

Two theories were in play last week about Barbour’s choices: One, that he will start a young Republican such as Chip Pickering on a path to keep the Senate seat in GOP hands for decades. Or two – an intriguing scheme – that Barbour will name a seat-warmer who would not run for the unexpired term, so that Barbour himself could run and return to the Washington scene he loves.

Early on, Barbour said he would not appoint himself to succeed Lott, but that does not rule out him asking voters in November to elevate him to a higher level.

However, that scenario will depend on Barbour getting the court to OK his Nov. 4 special election date rather than the 90 days Hood’s team will argue.

Minor also thinks it’s “inevitable” that AG Jim Hood will go to court to force Barbour to call the election within 90 days. Let’s hope he’s right.

From Fox News:

Mississippi Republican Trent Lott resigned from the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, leaving a post he has held since 1988, spokesman Lee Youngblood said.

Time to ride off into the sunset, rake in some lobbyist scratch, and rebuild that porch.

So who will Haley appoint in his place?  Rep. Wicker?  Pickering?  Treasurer Tate Reeves?  And will state AG Jim Hood succeed in his fight to have a special election within 100 days?

It looks like a court battle over the date for the special election to replace retiring Sen. Trent Lott could very well be in the cards.  As we know, Gov. Haley Barbour’s bizarre reading of Mississippi’s electoral law gives him the power to set the special election in November.  This would give Barbour’s appointed candidate some crucial time to build up incumbency and make the Democratic candidate run against the headwind of the Presidential election turnout in a very red state.

The Mississippi Democratic Party is fighting the opinion, and they have an ally in a good place: state AG Jim Hood.  Hood’s office has just issued an opinion saying that Barbour must set a special election within 100 days of Lott’s retirement (provided he retired before the new year, as planned):

A special election must be held within 100 days after U.S. Trent Lott makes his resignation official, according to a state Attorney General’s opinion issued Monday. […]

Gov. Haley Barbour has scheduled a Nov. 4 special election for voters to decide who would take Lott’s seat permanently. Barbour said he would appoint an interim senator in the meantime.

Secretary of State Eric Clark issued a statement agreeing with Barbour’s course of action, but the Mississippi Democratic Party challenged the election’s timing.

On Monday, assistant Attorney General Reese Partridge issued an opinion that agreed with the party.

The Mississippi Code is “unambiguous,” Partridge wrote. “If the effective date is after the 2007 general election, but before Jan. 1, 2008, the Governor must, within 10 days of receiving notice of the vacancy, issue his proclamation setting the election within 90 days from when the proclamation is issued.”

A personal letter from Attorney General Jim Hood to Barbour attached to the opinion said if no agreement could be reached on the interpretation of the law, a “resolution from the courts” may be the next option.

Good.  If Hood can pull this off, the race might become more attractive for some of the state’s Democrats.

Stay tuned.

In an “Open letter to Mississippians,” former AG Mike Moore announced he's not interested in the US Senate:

I met with the leadership in the U.S. Senate while I was in town and talked with many of my friends, former attorneys general who serve their states well as U.S. Senators. The message was clear – the job of Senator is important and fulfilling; the polls show I could win; and I would have the money I needed to win the race. It all just came down to whether it was best for me and my family. The truth is I made my decision four years ago, and it has been a good one for my family and me. In the last four years I made every baseball game Kyle had, Tisha and I have had much more family time, and I have been fortunate in my law practice.

… 

The point is I am happy doing what I am doing, my family is happy, and I look forward to making a big difference in my state and nation. I have seriously considered the U.S. Senate vacancy as my friends urged me to do, but I have always known that what I am doing now is good enough for me. I appreciate all the encouragement to run.

Moore was likely Democrats' best shot at picking up retiring Sen. Trent Lott's seat, but former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is still looking at the race and could make it competitive.