MS-01: Childers Picks Up a Key Endorsement

The Tupelo-based Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal endorsed Democrat Travis Childers this morning:

Travis Childers of Booneville, the top vote-getter among all candidates in party primaries completed on April 1, is the best candidate on the ballot. Childers is the Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, and his successful, positive and issues-focused campaign in the Democratic primary helped put him in the November general election. […]

Davis unfortunately continues in the special election the same timbre of intensely negative campaigning he used against McCullough in the Republican primary. While negative campaigning crafted by cynical political professionals has sadly become commonplace in elections today, Davis – with assistance in the special election campaign from the National Republican Congressional Committee – has focused on distortions of his opponents’ records and attacks on their personal integrity that are beyond the muddied norm.

This is precisely the kind of scorched-earth politics we need less of in Washington, not more. […]

Childers stands squarely in the mainstream of a long line of people who have ably represented our total 1st District region’s interests in the U.S House.

We support his election.

Special election: 4/22; runoff (if necessary): 5/13.

LA-06, MS-01: Mo’ Money, Mo’ Problems

The NRCC’s expenditures for the day:

  • LA-06: $10,000 on a poll.
  • MS-01: $8,800 on a poll, and $32,666 on direct mail against Democrat Travis Childers.
  • The NRCC’s expenditures to date:

    MS-01: $274,140 | LA-06: $120,194

The DCCC’s bill for the day:

  • LA-06: $23,223 on direct mail against Republican Woody Jenkins, and $2,420 on field organizing for Don Cazayoux.
  • The DCCC’s expenditures to date:

    MS-01: $126,576 | LA-06: $322,807

MS-01: NRCC Dumps Another $150K Against Childers

It looks like the GOP is seriously sweating the special election in Mississippi’s 1st congressional district.  Hot on the heels of a $114K ad buy by the DCCC against GOP candidate Greg Davis, the NRCC has just made an $150K media buy against Democrat Travis Childers.

The new expenditure brings the GOP’s total in this R+10 district to $232,673.

Special election: 4/22; runoff (if necessary): 5/13.

LA-06, MS-01: DCCC Drops Da Bomb

Aw yeah.  The DCCC just posted two more independent expenditures tonight.

First up, LA-06:  $2K on field organizing, $22K on direct mail, and $104K on a media buy opposing GOP loser Woody Jenkins.  This brings the DCCC’s total bill in the district to $279,547.  In total, the NRCC has spent $110,194 on defending this seat (not counting the money spent by Freedom’s Watch here).

Next, the DCCC made a big splash in the MS-01 special election, spending $126,576 on producing and airing an ad attacking GOP candidate Greg Davis.  Earlier today, the NRCC posted a $62,000 expenditure against Democrat Travis Childers in this R+10 district.  The GOP wouldn’t be wasting precious cash here if they didn’t think there was a chance that Davis could lose this seat.

MS-01 special election: 4/22; runoff: 5/13.

LA-06 special election: 5/3.

MS-01: NRCC Dumps Cash Against Childers

How badly is the cash-strapped NRCC sweating the open seat race in Mississippi’s 1st congressional district?  Enough to drop $62,000 against the Democratic nominee, Travis Childers.

The expenditures include a $30K media buy and $16K on direct mail, and come on the heels of a direct expenditure for Childers by the DCCC over the weekend.  A copy of the ad attacking Childers is viewable here.

It seems that the GOP can’t take anything for granted these days — even R+10 seats like this one that wouldn’t have been seriously in play earlier in the decade.

MS-01: Republican Davis Tied to White Supremacists

Why am I not surprised by this? Eric Kleefield at Talking Points Memo unearthed some information about Republican Congressional candidate Greg Davis and his assocation with local white supremacists.

In Mississippi’s Second District, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis agreed in 2001 to accept a plaque as a gift from the Council of Conservative Citizens, thanking the town for flying the state flag in the midst of a controversy over the flag’s Confederate emblems, according to press reports at the time.

There was a brief public outcry, during which Davis initially defended accepting the gift from the CCC, which is well-known for espousing doctrines of “racial integrity.” In the end though, Davis declined the gift. The episode involving the CCC hasn’t emerged as an issue in the current campaign — yet. But Davis won a seriously contested primary, and might just be vulnerable against Prentiss County clerk Travis Childers, the Dem challenger.

As with Woody Jenkins in Louisiana, old habits die hard. Davis eventually distanced himself from the group and their award, but his first and most basic impulse was to accept their embrace and defend doing so. That alone should speak volumes about his basic character and I hope the good people of MS-01 will speak loudly next week.

MS-01: Childers and the DCCC On the Air

Democrat Travis Childers, running for the open seat left behind by now-Senator Roger Wicker, has released his fourth TV ad:

Pay very close attention to the text at the bottom of the ad:

Paid For By the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Childers For Congress

Yup, that’s right — the DCCC is now pouring resources into the first congressional district of Mississippi.  No word yet on the exact sum spent so far (the cap on coordinated expenditures such as this is $42K), but I wouldn’t be surprised if the NRCC scrambles to respond in the next couple of days as they attempt to douse a fire in this R+10 district.

Special election: 4/22; runoff (if necessary): 5/13.

(H/T: Cotton Mouth)

Previous Diaries:

MS-01: New Poll Shows a Dead Heat Between Childers and Davis

MS-01: Does Travis Childers Have a Shot?

LA-06, MS-01: GOP Drops Some Coin

With the DCCC dropping $111,000 on TV ads and literature in the special election race to replace GOP Rep. Richard Baker, the NRCC has followed suit with a $110K buy of its own against Democrat Don Cazayoux.

The NRCC’s ad (viewable here) hits Cazayoux on taxes and also mocks the spelling of his name.  DavidNYC offers his take:

Making fun of his last name strikes me as remarkably tone deaf and buttresses the claims that the staff at the NRCC – long considered a very good shop – really has gotten a lot weaker. This reminds of when the Club for Growth ran ads against Olympia Snowe calling her a “Franco-Republican” (she likes to raise taxes – just like the French, get it?), despite Maine have a very large population of French descent.

As for the tax hike claims, the ad in tiny type has a running list of bills (which Cazayoux presumably voted for) that allegedly contained these tax hikes. If these claims are bullshit, Cazayoux should demand the ad be taken off the air. (Remember, the threshold is lower for non-candidate ads.)

Meanwhile, quietly concerned about the open seat race to fill the vacant seat of MS-01 (previously held by Roger Wicker, who was tapped by Haley Barbour to replace Trent Lott in the Senate), the NRCC also logged a $12K expenditure on a poll of the district.  Depending on its results, we may see the GOP pour some more resources into this race to bolster GOP candidate Greg Davis against Democrat Travis Childers, who is running a hard-charging campaign for the R+10 seat.

Even without a pair of wins here, the fact that the NRCC is bleeding resources on a string of red seat special elections is priceless.

MS-01: New Poll Shows a Dead Heat Between Childers and Davis

Anzalone Liszt for Travis Childers (likely special election voters, 4/3-7):

Travis Childers (D): 41%

Greg Davis (R): 40%

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Those are the head-to-head results between Childers and Davis.  However, in the special election on April 22nd, primary losers Glenn McCullough (R) and Steve Holland (D) will both be on the ballot (in addition to two third-party candidates).  When all six names are read, Davis leads Childers by a statistically insignificant margin of 29%-27%.  However, it should be noted that Holland is considering going to court in order to get his name off the special election ballot:

“I want the ballot clean,” Holland said Wednesday from the State Capitol where he is chairman of the House Public Health Committee. “I’m not going to Washington for six months, even if I am elected.”

McCullough said Wednesday he also has asked for his name to be taken off the special election ballot, but noted he isn’t “quite as adamant” as Holland.

More information from the polling memo:

Among undecided voters, Democrats have a 15-point advantage on the generic ballot (40% Democrat / 25% Republican), another sign of Childers’ expansion potential. This is the result of high undecided vote among blacks which will most likely go to Childers.

This one should definitely turn some heads.

Previous diaries:

MS-01: Does Travis Childers Have a Shot?

MS-01: Does Travis Childers Have a Shot?

This is Travis Childers, the Democrat running for the open seat left behind by Roger Wicker (R) when he was appointed to the Senate.

In his quest for the seat, Childers has fought through two elections — the November general primary and run-off — to get to where he is today.  Childers will face off with Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) in the April 22 special election to fill the seat.  The catch?  The losers of the primary run-off, Democratic state Rep. Steve Holland and former GOP Tupelo Mayor and TVA Chair Glenn McCullough (as well as two fringe-party candidates) will be on the ballot, although both have ceased campaigning for the job.  

The long list of candidates on the ballot, and their lack of party designation, means that there is a very real chance that this election will go to a run-off on May 13.  (Meaning that, to fill this seat, voters in MS-01 will have had to vote four times: the primary, the run-off, the special election, and the special run-off.)

So can Childers make a real race of this?  The traditional prognosticators — CQ, Cook (friend of SSP), et al — currently rate the seat as “Safe Republican”.  It’s hard to fault them for that — after all, this is an R+10 Southern seat that Bush won with 62% of the vote in 2004.  But I subscribe to a different view, and the Swing State Project currently puts this race at the more competitive rating of Likely Republican.

Over at DailyKos, RBH had a great diary on the dynamics of the race, which I encourage you to check out if you haven’t already.  Allow me to build upon his summary to give you a list of reasons why Childers has an outside chance of an upset here:

  1. The right profile.  Childers has served as Chancery Clerk in Prentiss County since he was first elected in 1991.  A self-described “Jamie Whitten Democrat” (after the longtime congressman who represented this district from 1941 to 1995), Childers calls himself a “pro-life, pro-business and pro-guns” candidate, but retains a strong streak of economic populism to tap into the eastern portion of the district’s New Deal/TVA heritage.

    At the age of sixteen, having just lost his father, Childers went to work full-time to help support his mother and younger sister, and put himself through college.  Childers earned his real estate license at the age of 19 and built his own business from the ground up.

    In his campaign ads, Childers has targeted the rising cost of living, crumbling state of the economy, and unfair trade deals as issues he wants to address in Congress.  On the campaign trail, Childers’ populism rings loud and clear:

    When one panelist asked about high gas prices, Childers told her he has no sympathy for Exxon Mobile but a lot for the working-class families struggling to pay their gas and heating bills. Several adults in the crowd murmured their approval.

    In the primary, Childers was the only candidate — Democrat or Republican — to favor withdrawal from Iraq:

    He was the only one of five candidates — three Republicans, two Democrats — at a campaign stop in Nesbit last week who said point-blank that U.S. troops don’t belong in Iraq. […]

    Childers said he favors coming up with a plan to withdraw troops over 12 to 18 months and leave the Iraqis to fight among themselves, as they have for thousands of years.

    He said he’s amazed more people on the campaign trail haven’t asked about a national debt of more than $9 trillion.

    “We’re spending our money, folks, in Iraq. We need to be spending our money in America.

    Childers is the only candidate in the special election who understands the struggles of working families, and this should be an advantage to him as he tries to capture votes in rural Northeast Mississippi.

  2. The enthusiasm gap.  In the April 1st runoff, 36,168 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, while 33,135 GOP ballots were counted — a net turnout advantage of 3000 votes for Democrats.  Some of this might be due to old Dixiecrat habits dying hard, and a small amount could possibly be attributed to the unintended consequence of Rush Limbaugh’s “operation chaos” — GOP voters who requested a Democratic ballot for Mississippi’s Presidential primary were not allowed to cast Republican ballots in the runoff, but it’s hard to say how much of a factor that was here.

  3. A little help from his friends.  The Democratic primary was an unusually cordial affair, as Childers and state Rep. Steve Holland considered themselves friends and did not let a competitive race come between them.  In fact, Holland is enthusiastically supporting Childers in the special election.  From the front page of Holland’s campaign website:

    I want you to know that Travis Childers is a dear friend of mine. I support him 1,000,000 %. April 22 is the next election that decides who will fulfill the remaining term until the November Election. I want you to help me put Travis in Washington on April 22nd.and keep him in office through the November election.

    If the Democratic family is in strong shape, the same can’t be said for the GOP here.  Davis mercilessly savaged McCullough’s record as TVA chair in his campaign ads on his way to a narrow primary win, and not surprisingly, McCullough’s campaign issued this non-endorsement endorsement:

    He also urged fellow Republicans to “unite behind all three of our nominees in North Mississippi – Senator Cochran, Senator Wicker and Mayor Davis. We have come too far as a state to turn back now.”

    But McCullough spokesman Brad Davis said the statement was “absolutely not” a personal endorsement of the runoff winner.

    When asked if it was a show of support for the party and not the person, Brad Davis said, “That’s a good way to put it.”


  4. Regional rivalry.  Davis won the GOP primary on the strength of his base in DeSoto County, a suburb of Memphis in the Northwestern portion of the district, while losing the vast majority of the rest of the district to McCullough.  On the one hand, Davis has a powerful base — DeSoto’s population is 150,000 and is only growing stronger.  However, there is a palpable sense of concern in the rest of the district that the old population anchor of Tupelo, once considered the power center of this district, and other small cities and rural counties could be left with a “representation deficit” with the suburban-minded Davis in Congress.  From the Memphis Commercial Appeal:

    “This victory was a siren in the night to the eastern half of the district that Tupelo is not the capital of the First District anymore,” said Marty Wiseman, director of Mississippi State University’s John C. Stennis Institute of Government. “DeSoto County can no longer be shuttled off to the corner of the room. This runoff election and Davis’ win demolished that image.”

    Might this be of concern to the citizens of Tupelo and other areas of MS-01?  If so, Childers, with his Northeast base, is in a position to capitalize on the rift.

Make no mistake — this seat is an uphill climb for Childers, but it by no means can be written off completely.  With his support in county courthouse circles, his economic populism, and a regional rift to play to his advantage, Childers can make this seemingly-sleepy special election a race to watch.