Tag: MS-01

As David articulated last night, the “every man for himself” attitude that is crippling the House GOP conference will only grow stronger in the weeks and months ahead now that the NRCC is left with no excuses for losing a safe seat in Mississippi.

Already, they’re tripping over themselves to lay the blame at someone’s feet:

Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, who chairs the conservative Republican Study Committee, defended the campaign chairman during the closed-door session, saying “the problem was not Cole, but the Republican brand” and the lack of well-formulated policy planks articulated by the party.

But other members did point fingers; Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn complained that newly-appointed GOP Sen. Roger Wicker did not do enough to help Republican Greg Davis retain his seat, members in attendance said afterward. Blackburn also explained that an ongoing feud between Republican Sen. Thad Cochran and the state’s recently retired GOP Sen. Trent Lott also played a part in the loss.

How bad is it?  Rumors are raging that Cole might be sacked in favor of retiring Rep. Tom Davis:

The finger-pointing wasn’t just limited to the conference room in the Capitol basement where members met; former NRCC Chairman Tom Davis, who has become a pointed critic of his party and President Bush since announcing his retirement earlier this year, gave members a 20-page memo he typed up over the weekend about what the party needs to do to improve its brand nationally, the Virginia Republican told reporters after the meeting.

“This is the floor,” Davis said, stopping his foot on the concrete. “We’re underneath it.”

Davis, however, dowmplayed a rumor that he would be elevated to replace Cole, and the current job holder said no major changes were in the works at the committee “yet.”

It’s no surprise that a lot of House GOPers would want to sack Cole’s sorry ass, but they may not have a chance with only six months to go until election day.

The Hill sums up the situation in the starkest of terms:

The sky is falling on House Republicans and there is no sign of it letting up.

The GOP loss in Mississippi’s special election Tuesday is the strongest sign yet that the Republican Party is in shambles. And while some Republicans see a light at the end of the tunnel, that light more likely represents the Democratic train that is primed to mow down more Republicans in November.

Get ready to rock this November.  Republicans can run, but they can’t hide.

Update: Blackburn has taken issue with the characterization of her remarks:

Blackburn referred to her former House colleague, but did not criticize him for a lack of effort. She was referring to a rift that emerged during the primary between rival regions in the district, a member present said.

This is it, folks. The one. The final piece of straw set atop the shambling camel of the GOP, the one which clove its dessicated humps in two.

Only it’s more like a ton of bricks crushing the Republican roach.

Let’s take stock of this race to see what I mean:

• This district has a PVI of R+10. It voted for Bush 62-37 in the last election. Only seven Democrats sit in comparably red seats – and not a single Republican sits in a seat as blue as this one is red. And almost every major prognosticator (at least at the start) treated this as a safe seat.
• The GOP had a perfectly serviceable candidate in Greg Davis – a standard wingnut with none of the baggage of Woody Jenkins in LA-06 or Jim Oberweis in IL-14.
• The NRCC spent $1.3 million on this race. Freedom’s Crotch spent at least $400K more – and used illegal tactics to boot. And of course Davis himself raised over a million.
• They sent in Mike Huckabee, Thad Cochran, Trent Lott, Haley Barbour, and Roger Wicker.
• And when that wasn’t enough, Darth Cheney came to town, to stump and raise money.
• The GOP played up Obama/Pelosi/”librul” fear-mongering to the hilt. They were shameless in exploiting whatever racial angle they thought would work.

And yet what happened? Despite all this, Travis Childers just became the newest member of the Democratic Caucus with a resounding 54-46 win. It’s utterly unspinnable. Even Tom Cole knew not to try.

But a sober press release only sees him through until tomorrow morning. Then he has to face the same vast universe of problems he had before him today, except they will loom much larger and much more sharply. Almost every potentially contestable Republican seat is in play now. The “every man for himself” mentality that has taken hold amongst the GOP will become even more firmly entrenched, dooming already-weak NRCC fundraising. In Congress, discipline will likely suffer as vulnerable members (ie, much of the caucus) are tempted to side with the Dems. And we may even see some more retirements. Things are going to get much, much worse before they ever get better for the GOP – if they do at all.

For a lot of reasons, this to me is the sweetest of our three recent special election victories. But to the GOP, seldom has more bitter medicine passed their lips. Glib commentators will say that the Republican brand is tarnished. The fact is, it is the Republican Party which itself is broken.

And this election is what helped break it.

For once, John Boehner is not spinning tonight’s result. As a matter of fact, he has issued a warning to fellow House Republcans.

House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH) tonight responded to the MS-01 special election results with this cautionary statement:

“The results in MS-01 should serve as a wake-up call to Republican candidates nationwide. As I’ve said before, this is a change election, and if we want Americans to vote for us we have to convince them that we can fix Washington. Our presidential nominee, Senator McCain, is an agent of change; candidates who hope to succeed must show that they’re willing and able to join McCain in a leading movement for reform. We need to stop wasteful Washington spending, fight and win the war on terror, and stop the largest tax increase in history. That is truly the change the American people deserve — and that is a message on which we can succeed.”

My question of them is whether they are regretting that rally with George Bush.

IL-14: R+05

LA-06: R+07

MS-01: R+10

What’s next?  What R+12 district is about to be flipped?

I’d like you to imagine, for a moment, that you are the NRCC’s junior press secretary. You’ve just been tasked with the impossible: Spin tonight’s disastrous election loss in the deep red, R+10 first congressional district in Mississippi. Well, it would be impossible for normal people, but we’re talking about Republicans. No spin is too absurd! Anything will do! Those saps in the “emm-ess-emm” will dutifully transcribe whatever you write, anyhow. (Remember how they bought your line about how LA-06 was a bad portent for… Democrats? Delicious!) The key thing is, whatever explanation you decide on, it absolutely, positively, cannot be the fault of any Republican anywhere.

With that in mind, start writing!

UPDATE: The verdict is in: Tom Cole should have hired all the commenters on this thread! His staff has clearly forgotten how to write a Republican press release.

462 of 462 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Party	Votes	Percent
Travis Childers	(D)	57,276	54%
Greg Davis	(R)	49,314	46%

RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | Clarion-Ledger

County-by-County Baselines (4/22 and 4/1 results)

10:34PM: A big thank you to everyone who commented, donated, made phone calls, volunteered or blogged about this race.  Travis Childers and the Mississippi Democrats just took what was supposed to be a GOP cakewalk and delivered a deathblow.  Savor this win — because it’s a huge one.

10:17PM: Trent just left for the TRAVIS CHILDERS VICTORY PARTY!!!

10:15PM: Folks, sorry for this site crashing tonight.  We’ve been utterly slammed with traffic at a level that we haven’t seen since election night ’06.

10:14PM: CHILDERS WINS!!!

10:13PM: Folks, I think we just won this race.

10:06PM: Time for a new thread.

334 of 462 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Party	Votes	Percent
Travis Childers	(D)	39,116	50%
Greg Davis	(R)	38,418	50%

RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | Clarion-Ledger

County-by-County Baselines (4/22 and 4/1 results)

9:58PM: DeSoto is almost all in (36/38), narrowing the race.  We still have some very friendly precincts left (Clay, Prentiss) and some not-so-friendly ones (Tate).  Looking optimistic, though.

9:56PM: Grenada is all in, going 49-51 to Davis.  Last time, Davis won it 54-40.

9:49PM: Lee is all in, and Childers wins it 58-42.  It was 58-37 last time.

9:46PM: Now it’s a 2-point race.  A few more DeSoto precincts came in, closing the gap a bit.

9:42PM: Trent tells me that the mood is good at the Childers HQ.  Childers just flipped Lafayette County by 53-47.  It went for Davis by 44-51 last time.

9:35PM: Union came in, going from 39% on 4/22 to 44% tonight for Davis, but Childers stayed at 56%.

9:33PM: Big win in Panola for Cold Chillin’ Travis (57-43), which Davis won by 1 vote last time.

9:28PM: It’s not reflected above or on the AP’s tally, but Childers is at 72% in Clay County with 10 of 14 precincts in.  That would be an improvement over last time by 6 or 7 points.

9:20PM: Now they’re running even in Lowndes with 18 of 22 in.

9:17PM: Webster is all in, and Childers ran ahead by 6 points.  He’s also at 28% in DeSoto with 12 of 38 in.  With the Lowndes performance, this is good news.

9:15PM: New update — Lowndes is now reflected in the total above.

9:11PM: It’s not reflected in the above totals or in the AP’s results, but the Dispatch says that Childers is winning Lowndes by 59-41 with 2/3rds in.  Childers lost this county last time.

9:04PM: 7 of 38 precincts reporting in DeSoto.  Childers is at 26% there — a slight bump from the 17% he got there last time.

9:01PM: Folks, just a reminder — the Clarion-Ledger is your best bet for the fastest results by county.

8:56PM: Childers is up to 59% in Lee — much better.

8:46PM: More numbers in, from Lee and Chickasaw.  Childers is running slightly behind his 4/22 total, but it’s too early to tell just yet with only partial results from these counties.

8:41PM: Winston is in, breaking 6-4 for Childers.  Childers won 4-0 here on 4/22.

8:00PM Eastern: Polls are now closed.  It will probably take a few minutes before the first results trickle in, though, judging from past experience here.  Stay tuned.

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Polls close here at 8pm Eastern, so we still have time for some pre-game chatter before we begin liveblogging the reults.

Will Bardwell has a few turnout updates here.  Our friends at Cotton Mouth and the Thorn Papers will be providing local color, as well.

It looks like turnout is up everywhere, but this could be an ominous sign for Childers: DeSoto county is printing extra ballots, which means that they’ll have more than 17,000 votes cast in this election.

Polls close in Mississippi tonight at 8pm Eastern.  We’ll be liveblogging the returns as they come in, but until then, feel free to post your predictions in the comments.  You may find the county baselines that we posted earlier to be helpful.

There’s another election tonight, as well — the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate nomination in Nebraska, where Scott Kleeb and Tony Raimondo will face off.  Polls close at 9pm Eastern in Nebraska.  Feel free to post your predictions for that race in the comments, too.

There’s still time to help GOTV for Childers with the DCCC’s virtual phonebanking center.

Polls close in Mississippi at 8pm Eastern. We’ll be tracking and liveblogging the returns as they come in, but in order to really know what the numbers mean, we’ll have to pull up the county-by-county results of the April 22nd special primary, filtering out the also-rans so we get a pure Childers vs. Davis head-to-head:

County	Childers	%	Davis	%
Alcorn	1808	63	1023	35
Benton	504	67	227	30
Calhoun	692	54	501	39
Chickasaw	1141	67	465	27
Choctaw	300	47	291	47
Clay	1609	65	722	29
DeSoto	2064	17	10148	81
Grenada	553	40	752	54
Itawamba	1155	59	701	36
Lafayette	1149	44	1342	51
Lee	4899	58	3143	37
Lowndes	1855	44	2252	53
Marshall	1633	62	950	36
Monroe	2374	62	1206	32
Panola	1057	43	1058	43
Pontotoc	1337	51	1117	43
Prentiss	4136	85	653	13
Tate	632	31	1313	65
Tippah	1131	60	704	37
Tishomingo	1135	61	663	35
Union	1191	56	846	39
Webster	286	35	475	58
Winston	4	100	0	0
Yalobusha	493	46	514	48
Total	33,138	49	31,066	46

Steve Holland (D) and Glenn McCullough (R), previously defeated in the April 1st primary runoff, won 1.17% and 1.44% of the vote, respectively.

Davis won 8 of the district’s 24 counties in the first round, but the biggest chunk of his votes came from the Memphis suburbs in DeSoto County, which contains his home base of South Memphis Southaven. Because of its sheer voting power, DeSoto has the potential of being a game-ender for Childers if Davis can keep the numbers close throughout the rest of the district.

Childers will need to do his best to run up the score in Prentiss (his home county), neighboring Alcorn, and key spots like Chickasaw (41% black), Clay (56% black), Marshall (50% black), and other friendly areas in Northeast Mississippi. We’ll also see if Childers and the DCCC have been able to turnout crucial votes in counties like that Davis won like Panola (48% black), Grenada (41% black), and Yalobusha (39% black). More ballots were cast for Democrats than for Republicans in these counties in the April 1st primary runoff, but some of those votes didn’t turn out for Childers in the first round of the special election.

A key bellwether here will be Lee County, where Tupelo is located. It’s a county that normally tilts Republican in statewide and federal races, but Davis’ savage attacks in the GOP primary against Tupelo’s former mayor, Glenn McCullough, didn’t do much to inspire enthusiasm for his bid here: Childers won the county by 58%-37% on April 22nd. But if Davis closes the gap here, Childers may have a hard time coming out on top.

For good measure, I’m adding the county-by-county numbers for the primary run-off below the fold.

County	Childers	Holland	Total Dem	Davis	McCullough	Total GOP
Alcorn	1454	290	1744	349	554	903
Benton	384	95	479	82	42	124
Calhoun	500	471	971	201	305	506
Chickasaw	575	1066	1641	148	374	522
Choctaw	356	138	494	96	311	407
Clay	1012	599	1611	138	635	773
DeSoto	1056	388	1444	8281	1947	10228
Grenada	390	282	672	285	364	649
Itawamba	536	1123	1659	268	548	816
Lafayette	530	776	1306	454	695	1149
Lee	1266	4822	6088	1251	3566	4817
Lowndes	1056	468	1524	1022	1731	2753
Marshall	1118	348	1466	478	258	736
Monroe	1443	1644	3087	436	937	1373
Panola	1017	233	1250	548	227	775
Pontotoc	584	1028	1612	459	954	1413
Prentiss	3543	335	3878	198	377	575
Tate	646	100	746	812	242	1054
Tippah	889	245	1134	262	439	701
Tishomingo	926	392	1318	189	389	578
Union	796	637	1433	361	758	1119
Webster	274	174	448	219	321	540
Winston	3	1	4	2	1	3
Yalobusha	443	303	746	194	221	415
Total	20,797	15,958	36,755	16,733	16,196	32,929