Tag: NC-Gov

Rasmussen (9/30, likely voters, 8/13 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 46 (51)

Pat McCrory (R): 50 (45)

Michael Munger (L): 2

(MoE: ±4%)

Elon University (9/29-10/2, residents, 9/15-16 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 33 (35)

Pat McCrory (R): 37 (37)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Two new polls give more bad news for Bev Perdue, who seems to be slipping in her quest to hold the open North Carolina gubernatorial seat for the Dems. Rasmussen shows a big reversal from mid-August, when Perdue seemed to be at her peak. Elon University also shows Perdue losing a little ground from several weeks ago.

Elon University (9/29-10/2, residents, 9/15-16 in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 37 (35)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 35 (35)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

On the plus side, the same Elon University poll sees Kay Hagan gaining ground in the Senate race. (Bear in mind that the Elon poll is rife with methodological problems: it’s a sample only of residents, and respondents are only asked for each race whether they’re supporting the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Nevertheless, their margins seem generally in line with numbers we’re seeing elsewhere, with the presidential race in NC tied at 39-39.)

PPP (9/28-29, likely voters, 9/17-19 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (44)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (43)

Michael Munger (L): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±3%)

Hmmmm. While most pollsters are seeing Barack Obama and Kay Hagan suddenly and surprisingly pulling away in North Carolina, it also seems that most pollsters are also seeing Democrat Bev Perdue fall behind Pat McCrory in the open North Carolina gubernatorial race.

What’s significant is that PPP is the pollster that has been most favorable to Perdue; this is the first PPP poll showing her trailing McCrory. This is also apparently the same sample that gave Hagan that staggering 8-point edge, so there seems to be some troublesome ticket splitting that’ll need to be overcome.

SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

I’ll file Washington’s governor’s race in the “good news” column: after a period in the post-GOP convention afterglow when Dino Rossi nosed ahead of Chris Gregoire (or shot ahead by 6, in the case of that sketchy Rasmussen poll), we may be returning the old stasis, with a tiny edge for Gregoire, who remains deeply dependent on Obama coattails to get her over the finish line. In the same sample, Obama leads 54-43, again, much more plausible than his +2 in the last Rasmussen. (H/t mikeel.)

UPDATE: Here’s an amusing little aside. The Washington Democratic Party is suing Secretary of State Sam Reed (a Republican, but a highly ethical one) to force him to change Rossi’s self-selected ballot line (from “GOP Party” to “Republican”). I don’t think the Dems have a legal leg to stand on, but it makes sense for them to try, in wake of last week’s Elway poll giving Gregoire a 4-point lead when Rossi is identified as “prefers GOP Party” and a 10-point lead when he’s identified as “Republican.”

PPP (9/17-19, likely voters, 9/9 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 44 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (40)

Michael Munger (L): 6 (6)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Civitas (R) (9/17-20, registered voters, 9/6-10 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (40)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (39)

Michael Munger: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

I’ll file North Carolina under “mixed bag,” as PPP gives Perdue another small edge (this is the same sample that showed Obama and McCain tied at 46 and Hagan up by 5). Civitas gives McCrory a two-point edge, up from a one-point deficit before (this sample showed Obama/McCain tied at 45 and Dole up by 2). This one clearly will go down to the wire.

Research 2000 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch (9/15-18, likely voters, 7/7-10 in parentheses):

Jay Nixon (D): 50 (52)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 43 (35)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I’ll file this under “bad news,” but this is the kind of bad news that I’ll gladly take. Jay Nixon still leads Kenny Hulshof by a comfortable margin in the race for the open governor’s seat in Missouri, except Research 2000 (working for the St. Louis newspaper rather than Daily Kos on this one) shows that Hulshof has closed within high single digits instead of the showy double-digit margins Nixon has mostly been posting. Rasmussen gave Nixon a 15-point spread last week, so there’s not much cause for alarm, though. (McCain leads in this sample, 49-45.)

Elon University (9/15-16, residents):

Kay Hagan (D): 35

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 35

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Bev Perdue (D): 35

Pat McCrory (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

First off, this is a strange poll, from a pollster I’ve never heard of before: a poll of North Carolina residents, with no regard to voting likelihood or registration, with a 4.9% MoE, and, judging by the very low numbers, little interest in pushing leaners. (UPDATE: Nor does the poll even give the names of candidates, only asking whether respondents are voting Democratic or Republican in each race!)

On the other hand, the numbers seem quite consistent with what we’ve seen recently: a tied race in the Senate, and a governor’s race moving in the last month from a slight Dem lean to a slight GOP lean. McCain leads Obama 41-35, also plausible.

This is more like it.

Public Policy Polling (9/9, likely voters, 8/20-23 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (42)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 42 (39)

Chris Cole (L): 6 (5)

Undecided: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Ahh, that feels a lot better than that funked up SUSA poll from last night showing Dole up 8 (and Johnny Mac up 20). In this poll, Democrats have a more reasonable 49%-36% advantage in the crosstabs, compared to the one-point GOP advantage in SUSA’s latest and greatest.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-44 in the same poll.

UPDATE by Crisitunity: Bonus bonus finding: Dem Bev Perdue is up over Republican Pat McCrory by only 41-40 in the governor’s race, down from 43-38 in the last PPP poll.

SPECIAL UPDATE by J. Hell: Bev Perdue has released an internal poll by Garin-Hart-Yang (9/5-7): Perdue +6, McCain +3, Dole +2.

PPP (8/20-23, likely voters, 7/23-27 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 43 (46)

Pat McCrory (R): 38 (37)

Michael Munger (L): 4 (6)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

PPP’s new poll of the open North Carolina gubernatorial race gives Democratic Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue a five-point lead over Republican Pat McCrory, the mayor of Charlotte. It’s a bit of downward drift from last month, but much more comfortable than their June numbers, which had her up by only 42-41.

This is quite consistent with Rasmussen’s polling of the race. The August 13 Rasmussen (which SSP unfortunately let slip through the cracks until now) pegs it as a six-point race for Perdue, 51-45, improved from 47-46 in the previous poll in June. No pollster (including SurveyUSA or Civitas) has seen McCrory with a lead since May.

PPP also polled all the races for the Justice League Council of State; Democrats lead all but two of the races (Ag Commissioner and Labor Commissioner). Most of the leads are pretty narrow, but incumbent Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper (seen as probably the likeliest challenger against the underwhelming Richard Burr in NC-Sen 2010) is thumping his R opposition, Bob Crumley, 48-30.

SurveyUSA (8/11-12, likely voters, 7/13-15 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (49)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (46)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 47 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (46)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (3)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The nation’s two closest gubernatorial races continue to be, well, close according to SurveyUSA. In Washington, SurveyUSA’s numbers stay extremely consistent, with each side gaining a smidge of support, to the extent that only 2% of respondents remain undecided with more than two months to go. I doubt too many people have changed their minds since 2004. (The stability of this race is best seen graphed over at Pollster.com.)

One thing to bear in mind is that Rossi has been engaged in saturation advertising this month (there’s a freakin’ Rossi banner ad at the top of my screen no matter what site I’m looking at), in order to ramp up his numbers for the primary/beauty contest next week, while Gregoire has backed off a bit on advertising. Rossi, I’d imagine, is counting on getting some momentum out of a surprise squeaker victory in the Top 2 primary, possible since he has the more motivated supporters and there won’t be any Obama coattails next week. (As I mentioned in the comments a few days ago, the minor candidates in the primary are a particularly hapless lot this year, incapable of playing spoiler to either Rossi or Gregoire.)

As for the Tar Heel State, that looks very stable too. Here’s its Pollster.com graph. The main fluctuation seems to be right-leaners trying to decide whether to go with McCrory or Munger. (I suspect they’ll, as usual, go with the Republican, which why I’d bet this race winds up being a little closer than Washington in November.)

Public Policy Polling (7/23-27, likely voters, 6/26-29 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 46 (42)

Pat McCrory (R): 37 (41)

Michael Munger (L): 6 (5)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Perdue may have gotten a bit of a boost after her primary opponent, state Treasurer Richard Moore, recently endorsed her. Pollster Tom Jensen has some more thoughts:

Pat McCrory has lost some of the luster off of his ‘change’ message in recent weeks with revelations of large amounts of out of state money being spent on his behalf and news of a letter sent to lobbyists to help in raising money for his campaign. He’ll need to turn it around quick to keep the race from getting away from him, particularly with Perdue’s large overall fundraising advantage.

This race has been very, very tight since the start of the year, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on Perdue to see if she can break away in more polls.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Buncha statewide (sen & gov) polls that we haven’t gotten to yet around here at SSP, so we’ll fire them off all at once in abbreviated fashion (trendlines in parens):

• CO-Sen (Quinnipiac): Udall 44 (48), Schaffer 44 (38)

• CO-Sen (Rasmussen): Udall 47 (49), Schaffer 43 (40)

• MN-Sen (Quinnipiac):  Coleman 53 (51), Franken 38 (41)

• MN-Sen (Rasmussen): Coleman 44 (42), Franken 43 (44)

• NC-Gov (Civitas): Perdue 43 (43), McCrory 40 (41)

• NC-Sen (Civitas): Dole 47 (48), Hagan 38 (38)

• NJ-Sen (Monmouth): Lautenberg 45, Zimmer 37

• VA-Sen (PPP): Warner 57 (59), Gilmore 32 (28)

All yours.

Rasmussen Reports (6/10, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):

Perdue (D): 47 (39)

McCrory (R): 46 (45)

Other: 1 (10)*

Undecided: 6 (2)

(MoE: ±4%)
*(May poll included Libertarian Michael Munger, who took 4%.)

Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has materially better favorables (59-24) than Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (52-38), yet the latter was still able to close the gap. Most prognosticators say that this race leans Dem, but all the polling so far (apart from one slight outlier from SUSA) makes this look more like a tossup, at least for now.