Tag: TN-09

Polls have now closed in Tennessee. We’ll be using this thread to keep track of the results of the Democratic contest for TN-09, and we’ll keep an eye on TN-01 and TN-07, where there is some hot wingnut on wingnut action taking place.

RESULTS: Associated Press | TN-09

11:49PM: (Exhales) It’s over in TN-01: Phil Roe beats David Davis by 500 votes! What a sadsack loser Davis is. Over in TN-09, Cohen has crushed Tinker by a 38,000-vote margin with 98% in. Hope you enjoyed the evening, EMILY’s List!

11:29PM: I think they’re taking a ganja break over in TN-01.

11:03PM: A few more votes are trickling in: Roe’s lead is now back down to 1200 votes with 84% reporting.

10:43PM: Our back of the envelope analysis says that Davis would have to perform 16 points better than he has all night in the remaining precincts in order to eek out a win. Looks doubtful…

10:36PM: With 83% in, Cohen now has a 34,000 vote lead over the odious Nikki Tinker. That sound you hear is me engraving her political tombstone. And it feels… so… good.

10:22PM: 80% now reporting in TN-01, and Roe is now leading by 1500. Over in TN-09, Steve Cohen has grown his lead to 32,000 votes with 80% in. Fuck yeah!

10:17PM: Over in TN-01, 73% of the vote is in, and Roe is clinging to that 1200 vote lead. Over in Memphis, Nikki Tinker’s political career is dead at 19%.

10:07PM: I sure hope EMILY’s List is enjoying the egg all over their faces right now. With 67% of the vote in, Cohen has a 30,000-strong lead. SSP calls the race for Steve Cohen!

9:54PM: For TN-09 results, check here. With 55% of precincts reporting, Cohen is crushing Tinker by 79-19. (H/T: MinnesotaMike)

9:52PM: In TN-01, Roe is up by 1000 votes with 65% in.

9:44PM: Alright. Finally, some TN-09 numbers. Cohen leads by over 14,000 votes (81-17) so far. Nice.

9:37PM: With 53% counted, Roe has expanded his lead over Davis to nearly 1200 votes.

9:33PM: 38% in now, and Roe is up by 700 votes. Over in TN-07, Leatherwood is officially driftwood.

9:27PM: With 26% in, Roe is up by 500 votes (51-49).

9:10PM: Roe has pulled back ahead by 60 votes with 21% in. Over in TN-07, Leatherwood is getting smoked.

9:07PM: Davis is back on top by a mere 35 votes (16% reporting).

9:02PM: Roe has expanded his lead over Davis to 450 votes (52-48) with 12% in.

8:52PM: Some more votes in: Roe leads Davis by 300 votes with 7% in. Still nothing from Memphis yet.

8:40PM: With 2% reporting in TN-01, Roe has pulled ahead of Davis by a 51-48 margin. Obviously, it’s pretty early in the night. In TN-07, Blackburn has a big early lead: 73-27.

8:30PM ET: With 1% reporting in TN-01, incumbent David Davis is up by 50-49 (and 20 votes) against challenger Phil Roe. Over in TN-07, with 1% reporting, Marsha Blackburn has an early 60-40 lead over Tom Leatherwood. Nothing in TN-09 yet.

Well, this is it: Polls close at 8pm Eastern tonight for the incredibly nasty primary race that corporate-friendly Democrat Nikki Tinker is waging against Rep. Steve Cohen in Tennesse. While three other minor candidates crowd the field, Tinker’s performance will be the one to watch.

Feel free to post your predictions in the comments. As usual, SSP will be liveblogging this race once the results begin to be reported later in the evening. Be sure to check back with us for updates.

In the last few hours since we last checked in on the race in TN-09 (where the primary is tomorrow):

* Nikki Tinker was declared Worst Person in the World by Keith Olbermann. (If anyone can recall any other Democrat receiving this, um, honor, please let us know in the comments!)

* Nikki Tinker, or at least her ad, was condemned by EMILY’s List, who had previously endorsed her.

EMILY’s List president Ellen Malcolm issued a statement Wednesday evening condemning Tinker’s most recent ad.  The group, which endorses Democratic women who favor abortion rights, has been Tinker’s most prominent backer.

“We were shocked to see the recent ads run by the Nikki Tinker for Congress campaign. We believe the ads are offensive and divisive,”

(The ad has been scrubbed from YouTube by the Tinker campaign; unfortunately, the embed below no longer works.)

* Steve Cohen forcibly removed a cameraman from his house who had barged in uninvited to Cohen’s hastily-called news conference at Cohen’s house to address the religion-baiting ad… and the cameraman is allegedly pressing ‘assault’ charges. (Video from the local Memphis Fox affiliate is available here: http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/my… The cameraman is an Armenian-American activist and documentary filmmaker who has been stalking Cohen all week; he’s not officially affiliated with the Tinker camp, but Armenian groups have given more than $30K to the Tinker campaign because of Cohen’s opposition to the bill to call the World War I-era slaughter of Armenians genocide (and thus infuriate Turkey).

Small legalistic note: there’s a big difference between some sorehead pressing charges, and the county DA actually following through on them (which I guess we’ll find out about that tomorrow). The video shows Cohen escorting the guy out the door with hand firmly on his arm and giving him a shove out the door for good measure; since the cameraman was essentially trespassing, this isn’t likely to amount to anything.

Also (h/t to BruinKid): the documentarian, Peter Musurlian, was previously a GOP operative, working as the district director for Carlos Moorhead, who until 1996 represented the Pasadena-area district now represented by Adam Schiff.

* UPDATE (Thursday morning): Barack Obama issued a statement condemning the ad (although not Tinker by name).

“These incendiary and personal attacks have no place in our politics, and will do nothing to help the good people of Tennessee,” Obama said in a statement. “It’s time to turn the page on a politics driven by negativity and division so that we can come together to lift up our communities and our country.”

Yesterday I discussed the ad from Nikki Tinker, the challenger in the TN-09 primary on Thursday, which made a visual linkage between Steve Cohen and a KKK rally. I assumed this was the Tinker campaign’s closing argument, ending the campaign on the most distasteful note possible.

Well, I was wrong. They’ve released another ad. In a race that’s been about gender and race, they’re back where they started: religion.

CHILD’S VOICE: “Now I lay me down to sleep…” ANNCR: “Who is the real Steve Cohen anyway?” CHILD’S VOICE: “I pray the Lord my soul to keep…” ANNCR: “While he’s in our churches, clapping his hands and tapping his feet…” CHILD’S VOICE: “If I should die before I wake…” ANNCR: “He is the only senator who thought our kids shouldn’t be allowed to pray in school.” CHILD’S VOICE: I pray the Lord my soul to take. ANNCR: “Congressman, sometimes apologies just aren’t enough.” TINKER: “I’m Nikki Tinker, and I approve this message.”

Note the narrator’s remarkably ham-fisted emphasis on “our” churches. (Cohen is Jewish.) Nice anti-Semitic dog-whistle… although it seems the Tinker campaign accidentally grabbed the bullhorn instead of the dog-whistle on the way out the door.

There’s time for one last TV spot before Thursday’s primary in TN-09, so here’s the closing statement released yesterday by Nikki Tinker, who’s challenging incumbent Steve Cohen in the primary in this Memphis-based district.

As you’ll recall, Steve Cohen is a white Jewish man, and a solid progressive, who represents the mostly-African-American 9th, having won the 2006 primary to succeed Harold Ford Jr. via a split black vote. Tinker (who lost to Cohen in 2006) is running to his right, but challenging him on the basis of race, gender, religion, and everything but the issues.

Apparently, Cohen, while a member of Memphis’ Center City Commission, voted against removal of a statue of Confederate General (and KKK founder) Nathan Bedford Forrest from a city park. The ad features a local pastor criticizing Cohen’s decision… while running unrelated stock footage of a KKK rally in the background.

Memphis’ major paper, the Commercial-Appeal, rightly took Tinker to task for her last-minute appeal, which can’t even be described as lowest-common-denominator since it’s mathematically impossible to divide something by zero:

Beyond all that, it’s unfortunate that the Tinker campaign would evoke the KKK image in Memphis. Many residents still have lingering resentment over a 1998 Klan rally Downtown that turned violent when anti-Klan protesters were tear gassed by police and several windows were broken.

Apparently, none of that has stopped Tinker supporters from framing Thursday’s election as a black-white contest or a division between African-Americans and Jews.

The candidate’s desperate efforts to paint Cohen with the broad brush of racist imagery may win a few votes to her cause. Those who know Cohen will see through the smear.

After a quiet July, we’re back in the thick of primary season in August.

August 5

GA-Sen (Runoff): When we last checked in, the primary for the Democratic nomination for the Georgia Senate race had gone to a runoff, with none of the five candidates clearing 50% in the July 15 primary. Bush-enabling DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones led the field with 41%; ex-State Rep. Jim Martin came in second with 34%. This makes it look like Jones has the edge, but Martin has a good shot at consolidating the anti-Jones votes that were dispersed among the four white candidates. A late June poll shows Martin with a much better shot at beating Saxby Chambliss in the general than Jones has.

KS-02: Nancy Boyda, who won an upset victory in this R+7 district in 2006, has had to sit and wait while Jim Ryun, the former Representative that she beat, and Lynn Jenkins, the Kansas State Treasurer, beat the snot out of each other in the primary. (Ryun was one of the most conservative members of the House; Jenkins is considered a moderate, at least by Kansas standards.) Ryun and Jenkins have raised a fair amount of money, but have had to spend it on each other, and an internal poll from June gives Boyda a sizable edge over each one. Still, this is a Lean D race and Boyda is widely regarded as one of our most endangered incumbents.

MI-13: Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in a three-way fight with ex-State Rep. Mary Waters and State Sen. Martha Scott in the Democratic primary. She’s a long-time incumbent, but scandal involving her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, is dragging her down, and a poll this week shows her in the lead but only with 33% of the vote.

MO-Gov: Representative Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman are vying for the Republican nomination to succeed Governor Matt Blunt, retiring at the ripe old age of 37 in the face of massive unpopularity. Polling gives the edge to Hulshof in the primary, but either one of them looks like a speed bump in the road for four-term Attorney General Jay Nixon, making this the Dems’ likelist state house pick-up.

MO-09: Kenny Hulshof is leaving behind this open seat in his quest to become Governor, giving the Dems a good shot at picking up this R+7 seat (represented by conservative Dem Harold Volkmer before Hulshof). There are competitive primaries in both parties. On the GOP side, most of the action is between State Rep. Bob Onder and State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer. (Although the presence of ex-football star Brock Olivo keeps things lively.) Onder is backed by the Club for Growth, Luetkemeyer is backed by Missouri Right to Life, and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch couldn’t bring itself to endorse either of them.

On the Dem side, the leading contenders are State Rep. Judy Baker and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw. Marion County Commissioner Lyndon Bode and ex-State Sen. Ken Jacob are also viable candidates. Baker (from the university town of Columbia) seems about as liberal as is viable in this district, Gaw is a bit to her right (although he did come out strongly against retroactive immunity) while the others are pretty Blue Doggish. Baker, who was running before Hulshof dropped out, leads the money chase. In absence of any polls, though, the race on both sides is a big question mark.

August 7

TN-09: Representative Steve Cohen, who picked up Harold Ford’s old Memphis-based seat in 2006, is being challenged by another one of the 2006 contenders, Nikki Tinker. Regrettably, this race has been defined by identity politics: race, gender, and religion, rather than ideology (which is important, as Cohen, the white guy, is quite progressive, while Tinker, the African-American woman, is running to his right). The district’s 60% African-American composition gives an advantage to Tinker, but internal polling in May gave a huge edge to Cohen. At D+18, it’s safe for the Dems in the general.

TN-01, TN-07: Two members of Tennessee’s wingnut patrol face primary challenges from other wingnuts hoping to capitalize on discontent within the wingnut base. In TN-01, freshman Rep. David Davis (who won the last primary with 22% of the vote) faces a rematch with 2006 contender Johnson City mayor Phil Roe. And in TN-07, Marsha Blackburn is up against Shelby County Register of Deeds Tom Leatherwood, who released an internal poll showing him within striking distance. These races don’t seem to be about much other than “my turn,” and Dems aren’t in a place to capitalize in these deep-red districts (R+14 and R+12), but they’re worth keeping an eye on.

August 12

CO-02: In this safe Dem (D+8) district based in Boulder, there’s a heated race to replace soon-to-be-Senator Mark Udall. State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Board of Education chairman and Internet entrepreneur Jared Polis, and Colorado Conservation Trust executive director Will Shafroth are all strong candidates. Conventional wisdom seems to mostly focus on Fitz-Gerald and the self-funding Polis, but Shafroth has picked up the major newspaper endorsements. Polis may be a smidge to the left of the other candidates (he’s openly gay and a Responsible Plan endorser).

CO-05: Doug Lamborn is another freshman wingnut who ruffled a lot of feathers in his first election (to the extent that his predecessor, Joel Hefley, refused to endorse him). He faces off against two of his 2006 challengers, former Hefley aide Jeff Crank and ex-AF Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn. Crank and Rayburn originally entered into a gentlemen’s agreement where one would drop out based on polling to avoid splitting the anti-Lamborn vote, but that agreement collapsed, leaving Crank and Rayburn attacking each other instead. It’s probably all for naught anyway, as their joint internal poll gives a big edge to Lamborn. Whoever wins has a big edge against Dem Hal Bidlack in this R+16 district.

CO-06: There’s a crowded field of Republicans trying to pick up where the retiring Tom Tancredo leaves off. Mike Coffman, the Colorado Secretary of State, seems to be slight front runner against businessman (and son of long-ago Senator Bill Armstrong) Wil Armstrong, according to Armstrong’s internal polling. Armstrong, despite not having held office, boasts some key endorsements, including retiring Sen. Wayne Allard and Mitt Romney. Two state senators, Ted Harvey and Steve Ward, are also vying for the seat. Local activist Steve Collins will represent the Dems in the general in this R+10 district.

Look for the 8-19 primaries in Washington and Wyoming, and the 8-26 primaries in Alaska and Florida, in Part II.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

I’m not sure if this is a case of EMILY’s List jumping the shark, drinking the gender essentialist Kool-Aid, or throwing Steve Cohen under the bus (maybe all three cliches at once?), but EMILY’s List has endorsed Nikki Tinker in the primary in TN-09 rather than incumbent progressive Steve Cohen.

EMILY’s List offered the following rationale:

“This is an extraordinary circumstance for us. We don’t make these decisions lightly,” said EMILY’s List spokeswoman Ramona Oliver. “Nikki ran a strong race in 2006 has put a strong race together in 2008, and she’s the only woman in this race.”

Cohen’s response was:

Cohen said he was somewhat surprised by the endorsement, citing his support and ‘A’ rating from the abortion-rights group Planned Parenthood. “It’s unfortunate that the women who give money and trust to EMILY’s List are not going to see their money going against Republicans, but that their money is going to used against a champion of choice,” Cohen said.

And Cohen’s campaign manager got more to the point!

“Steve Cohen doesn’t have the proper plumbing for EMILY’s List. His record as a state senator and congressman doesn’t mean anything to EMILY’s List because he’s not the right gender,” said Cohen campaign manager Jerry Austin.

The race in TN-09 is a curious confluence of gender and race; Steve Cohen is a Jewish white guy who represents a district that’s almost 60% African-American (who emerged from the primary via a split black vote). This is the seat that used to be represented by Harold Ford, Jr., so with Cohen a member of the Progressive Caucus and sporting a Progressive Punch score of 95%, he’s a big improvement over Ford, who was consistently the least liberal member of the CBC.

By contrast, Tinker (who is African-American and, obviously, female) is running as the apparently more conservative option (and, presumably, one who would therefore be less representative of the views of her D+18 district). Tinker’s background is in corporate law, specializing in “labor relations,” first for large firm Ford & Harrison and then for the general counsel for Memphis-based Northwest Airlines affiliate Pinnacle Airways.

For what it’s worth, a poll from a few weeks ago showed Cohen beating Tinker by a gaudy 63-11 margin, so unless it’s intended simply as a thumb in the eye to Cohen, it may be too little too late for them (although the primary isn’t until August 7).

Why a thumb in the eye right now? Cohen may have a frowny face on their good/bad chart as a result of his May 10 gaffe where he used a sexually loaded cinematic allusion to urge Hillary Clinton to exit stage right:

“Glenn Close should have stayed in that tub, and Sen. Clinton has had a remarkable career and needs to move to the next step, which is helping elect the Democratic nominee,” Cohen said.

Cohen rightly expressed his regrets over the comparison later, but is it an offense that really justifies EMILY’s List diverting its resources away from the general election task of beating Republicans and their decidedly non-feminist agenda?

Lake Research Partners for Steve Cohen (4/21-24, likely voters):

Steve Cohen (D-inc): 63

Nikki Tinker (D): 11

Joe Towns (D): 5

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Damn, is that lead ever huge.  Also of interest: Cohen enjoys a massive 87% favorability rating among both white and black primary voters.

It looks like Memphis area Democrats will be returning this solid progressive to the House once again.

Primary: August 7th

Beyond disgusting:

Backstory:

The flier, which provides the name and telephone number of Rev. George Brooks of Murfreesboro, Tenn., has been in circulation since at least last Thursday. On Monday, Brooks took responsibility for the broadside, saying, “I sent that out.”

…

Brooks said he sent the flier because the 9th Congressional District is “about 90-something percent black. That’s the reason.” According to the latest U.S. Census, in 2000, the district was 59.7 percent black.

According to an editorial in yesterday’s Memphis Commercial Appeal, Cohen’s primary oppponent, Nikki Tinker, had been slow to condemn the flier. A newer AP article says she was “incensed” by it.

Previously, Rep. Cohen has been attacked by clergy in the district for supporting a federal anti-hate crimes bill, a measure favored by the NAACP. Cohen also says that no one ever questioned Rep. Harold Ford (his predecessor in the seat) for supporting this bill, too. One clergyman responded:

“He’s not black and he can’t represent me, that’s just the bottom line,” said Rev. Robert Poindexter of Mt. Moriah Baptist Church.

It goes without saying that racist and antisemitic attacks have absolutely no place anywhere in the world, and especially not in American politics.